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Everything posted by LC
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An Evolve-or-Die Moment for the World's Great Investors
LC replied to saltybit's topic in General Discussion
It was just an example. The question is really, how many intangible-driven companies can a society manage without owing hard-asset driven businesses. Will we all be Facebook employees, importing our cars, clothes, and food from Mexico? Has the balance permanently shifted towards the FAANGs of the world, or is this temporary? As the initial question asks, "what will drive both the economy and the market forward over the next generation."? -
An Evolve-or-Die Moment for the World's Great Investors
LC replied to saltybit's topic in General Discussion
What’s happening now is a debate about what the drivers of value are—of what constitutes value in the 21st-century economy—and what will drive both the economy and the market forward over the next generation. This is the key questions. IMHO there are only so many intangible asset driven companies that society can handle. By that I mean, there can't be 100 Netflix clones, and nobody to produce TV shows and movies. -
Three construction workers: an italian guy, a chinese guy, and an irish guy are sitting up on one of the beams of the empire state building during its construction, thousands of feet above the street below, having their lunch. The italian guy opens his lunchbox. "Ah spaghetti and meatballs again! If my wife cooks this one more time, I'm jumping off this damn beam!!" The chinese guy opens his: "Lo mein again!! Dammit, if my wife cooks me this one more time, I'm jumping off too!" The irish guy does the same, sure enough: "corned beef again! Dammit if my wife cooks me this again, I'm jumping with you guys!" The next day, sure enough: spaghetti and meatballs - off goes the italian. Lo mein - off goes the chinese guy. And shortly followed by the irishman and his corned beef sandwich. A few days later at the funerals, the three wives are grieving together. "Oh my god", says the italian's wife. "I knew I shouldn't have cooked him spaghetti and meatballs again." "It was all my fault", says the chinese guy's wife, "If only I hadn't cooked him lo mein!" Finally the irish guy's wife: "I don't get it... he makes his own lunch!"
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A Buddhist goes up to a hot dog stand and says, "Make me one with everything" He gives the guy $10 bucks and gets a massive hot dog back. "What about my change?" The hot dog guy replies, "Change comes from within"
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MC is most useful for convergence testing for derivative pricing models. Little to no use in 'value investing'
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Bitcoin has been in the public eye for 3? 4? years now and has relatively no breakthrough public product to justify all the time and energy spent. Where is the value?
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Ditto on learning to code it yourself in python or R
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Social Media/FB/Instagram and The Rise of the Instant Pot
LC replied to BG2008's topic in General Discussion
Instant pot is great because it is a slow cooker, pressure cooker, and sous vide all in one. -
Value is difficult in wine because people have different tastes. And then there's the case that most sommeliers can't consistently identify specific wines in blind taste tests. Burgundy vs bordeaux vs boxed, with a blindfold you cannot tell. Really, it's all emotional in my opinion. So, drink a bunch of wine (:D), find types you like, and go from there.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-us-land-use/ Here’s How America Uses Its Land Good visualizations to get a sense how America is structured.
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The value isn;t important, it's the ability to use a static framework to compare options. You can stick your estimated CFs for BRK and AAPL, use the t-bill rate, and see what returns a higher value. It's like a bathroom scale. We all know the scale isn't accurate, but it can still be used over time to measure relative changes.
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More useful for VAR estimates and convergence testing.
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Thanks for this. Picked up a set of heavyweight merino baselayers for a good price.
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I would be. What brand and at what store? Was a DEWALT DW735X There was an eBay reseller listing them for 450 and eBay they had a 15% off deal. Looks like they sold out, however.
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When Luxury Brands Really F'ed Up Trying to Break Into China
LC replied to BG2008's topic in General Discussion
The trick with luxury brands is not talking to the people who buy the product but the people who wish they could. -
Thanks to Sanjeev and everyone here who makes this one of the best investing communities I have ever been part of. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone and their loved ones!
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I guess it depends what you're looking for. I picked up a wood planer for about $350 but I doubt anyone here is looking for that :D Some good resources are slickdeals.net to find deals, and camelcamelcamel.com to find item price history (to see if its really a 'deal' or not). Happy shopping :)
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Not sure how this guy is raising 100+ MM with SMAs
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To me, it is crazy. Imagine constructing a portfolio where a relatively normal 3-week period in November can totally ruin you? Honestly, I don't think I could do it even if I tried. I say that not to make light of his situation, but essentially as a warning to myself. Literally on Nov 1 he authored a post entitled, "Option Selling Opportunities So Good They're Scary" Wow.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNYNMM0hXXY&feature=youtu.be This Hedge Fund manager just lost all of his clients' money over the course of a couple weeks (hundreds of millions of dollars), made this cringy "apology" video while wearing a Rolex, then shut his site down and went dark This was a pretty sad watch. But important too as a reminder of what can happen quickly!
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Stan Lee's greatest cameo was the small part he played in all of our lives :D
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Current state of robotics (Alibaba warehouse) https://i.imgur.com/MwQiJ5K.gifv
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I wonder if we have another other quants here on the forum?
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FWIW for vanilla products a standard is to use trinomial tree with persistant skew. Plenty of documentation online. A better place for these type of questions is probably here: https://quant.stackexchange.com/