LC

Ok that makes a lot more sense - thanks for providing the context. I wonder what the price:TAM is for a bridge in Brooklyn?

Castanza, I was going to post the same thing. I saw it on reddit/securityanalysis yesterday :D It is an interesting read to hear his thoughts, particularly the bit on "fundamentals", where in my opinion he somewhat contradicts himself: And then in the very next paragraph: I think he is partially right and partially wrong. How can he say fundamentals are merely metrics used to sell stock, when he asks the same question to private investors. Asking "how soon can I get my money back?" and ignoring earnings or sales ratios is kind of silly. BTW, have you or anyone read the book he recommended, "The Number by Alex Berenson"? Probably I should post in the correct forum.

Thanks for the update. What does it say when Berkshire, Amazon, and JPM cannot "disrupt" a certain industry?

Thanks for the info, boilermaker. At this point, your options strategy on Brk is know to me as “a boilermaker” :)

Rb, I agree with your overall conclusion. I had no real good ideas, rather all I did this year was triple-down back in March April and use that early sell off to upgrade positions into better companies, buying a GreatCo at 70c versus a GoodCo at 50c. Then got lucky end of year with big moves upward in live nation and cloud flare among others. Frankly I hope every year I can be lucky rather than good.

Somewhere in the 30-40 range but I have to sit down and calculate the exact percentage.

Agreed, Happy New Year!

The year end post mortems should be thought provoking for sure.

That's wild. Where did you get that information?

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/monetary-policy-recession.asp

Agreed on two points: the strong hands argument, and also being prepared for declines. Regulation can be frightening, I am trying to discount the probability and effects of the govt taking their slice. Are you buying the currencies outright or via some other manner (eg MSTR mentioned previously)?

Appreciate the post, Aberhound. I missed the boat on cryptocurrencies but perhaps it is never too late and an allocation is in order.

For the super whisky nerd, I recommend a trip to Denver: http://www.pintspub.com/malt-whisky.html http://www.pintspub.com/assets/whiskybook-4-7-18.pdf

Time for feats of strength and the airing of grievances! Merry Xmas :)

And what if you don’t know but want to maximize your upside and minimize your downside? ;)

What bothers me about the rates argument is, when does the equity yield become so low that it does not justify the risk you are taking? Ok in a world of sub 2% bond yields, sure I can understand why a 3.5% equity yield exists. But as an individual, why invest in that? Just to sell at a 2.5 or 3% yield? That strikes me as a bit of the “greater fool” angle. Prices just seem dangerously high to me.

Interesting...thanks both spek and mattee

Does anyone know sources of market inflows the past year? I have a hard time believing it’s all Robinhood traders, and in the context of what happened end of summer with tech co options, perhaps Chinese money is a big component? Just a theory...

I saw a headline out of england hinting exactly that... Also I agree w/ Greg on the valuation difference between "blue chips" and the market darlings. It's huge.

I’ve had difficulty buying in the recent 2 months. Everything just looks really expensive. I have cash + highly appreciated positions. I may sell and harvest some gains to redeploy into better priced companies but those are getting tough to find.

We started watching it this weekend and ended up watching all of it. Excellent. If you're a chess fan I recommend agadmator's youtube channel.

Incredible, from Picasso's posts I would not have imagined such a conclusion. Goes to show you how little an online persona can show. That said, I agree with Greg. Either you know what you're doing and you manage your own money (or at the very least know enough to weed out ratfucks - pardon the term), or you index. Seriously, just buy the index.

A white scientist is studying an African tribe. One day, the tribe leaders wife has a white son. The tribe leader approaches the scientist soon after. "Well, we both know what happened here. No one else could have done it. You slept with my wife, I have to kill you." The tribe leader says. The scientist's brow furrows as he is deep in thought. "No no no sir there's been a terrible misunderstanding!" The scientist exclaims. "Look out at the pasture." He points his index finger to the fields, where a flock of sheep are grazing. "Yes, what is the matter? It's just sheep." The tribe leader asks. "Do you see that sheep? It's black, while the rest of the sheep are white. The same can be said about your son, It simply happens sometimes in nature." The tribe leader grasps the scientists shoulders and stares him down intensely. "I won't say anything about my son if you don't say anything about that sheep"

Tracking stock, ala Malone? Doesn't really fit the profile & I'm largely ignorant of such issues. Yeah, there are definately lots of ways to surface value here, but he's not really playing that game, and I prefer it that way. Either way I think massive buybacks, even at fair value, is the way forward. The old man can't really defend hording more cash, and it's difficult if not impossible for him to find better risk/reward elsewhere. I agree. Particularly on the "old man" comment. I am curious to hear what additional responsibilities have been migrated to the senior mgmt team (Greg et al) over the year (this year in particular, given all the COVID uncertainty).

Two counterpoints: 1- capital allocation is a benefit across the LOBs. There is a benefit for railroads having access to insurance capital, for example 2- he will have to 'unwind' relationships which at his late stage in life (or if ever) he may be unwilling to do. what does his promise of a 'permanent' home really mean, then?