UK

Just for fun...seems good enough to me:)

It is just speculation, but i think if there will be any hints of deflation, just as the last several times, we will get zero interest rates, QE and MMT resurrected all over again or even on a larger scale, if needed. So maybe I am wrong, but zero interest rates again - sure, possible, maybe even probable, but extended deflation - not sure if it is even possible? Can current financial system work under deflation?

I think they have some moat already but even more importantly are on the way or could have it even bigger in the future, something more BRK like: decentralized unique structure, long term owner operator thinking in insurance and investing and perhaps some larger moaty operating companies and lower non float leverage one day? But this kind moat perhaps will never be as strong or fool proof as moat from some brand, network effect or similar and will always depend much on ownership, management, culture, execution etc. But it seems to me FFH is in possession of all these ingredients today and I do not see anything changing in the foreseeable future. However, as others have pointed above, perhaps we also have to admit, that some of the future success of FFH will clearly depend on external circumstances and most importantly, the level of actual interest rates in the next 5, 10 or 20 years. I have no strong opinion myself on this (one can choose what to believe from Howard Marks and his sea change to Cathy Woods and her deflation thesis:)), but the scenario of some extended period of zero rates again somewhere in the future perhaps is not completely unthinkable? In such case what FFH could earn, what float is worth and how market views insurance business would be impacted. I say it half jokingly, but maybe after all they should do some macro again and hedge somehow from extended period of zero rates, if it is possible to do in a reasonable way:)?

Very well said!

https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/taiwans-former-us-envoy-wellknown-in-us-vilified-by-china-named-vp-candidate-3238505 It seems that so far really not much has changed and doubtfully will in the foreseeable future. And just because of elections in Taiwan soon and in US later are coming. It will be interesting to see if that fentanyl will even stop flowing, at least for a moment, from China, as was agreed.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/06/warren-buffett-it-doesnt-take-any-money-to-run-largest-companies.html I do wonder sometimes. Especially since there were at least a few very good periods to do this (last year or at the start of pandemic) and also these companies are large enough for BRK. But perhaps the simplest answer is that they already own like half of their portfolio in Apple and WB just likes and understands it the best. So no need to diworsify?

Thank you very much! So it seems there is more than enough skepticism and pent up anxiousness regarding FFH if we jump to the conclusion of 'same old...nothing has changed' just because of some fake headline and some tiny housekeeping deal done:). After share price up almost 50 per cent YTD, maybe some of this is understandable, but also to expect that nothing wrong will ever happen with FFH or some of its investments...would be just crazy:)? And just to remind, even after 50 per cent up this year it still trades at just 1 BV:). Far from priced to be perfect I guess? Given all positive fundamental developments and especially changes in bond portfolio, i would argue that FFH at current price is almost as exciting as a year ago.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-11-16/biden-xi-summit-china-plans-for-world-domination-become-clearer “The ‘laws of the jungle’ of international competition have not changed,” Xi told Chinese military officials in 2014. All that matters, he added a year later, “is whether you have strength and whether you can use that strength. Relying on a silver tongue won’t work.” To paraphrase Musk, Xi has said the actual truht:)

Not a bad movie about the beginning of McDonald's, kinda investing related:). Scene about land:

So folks are bashing/discussing FFH for buying more BB, yet nobody cares if it is actually true:)? Or am I missing something?

Thanks, yes, maybe I should have said 'this decision' instead of 'this deal'. I understand lemon situation here, however, looking from today's perspective, how this does not make a lot of sense just because of taxes?

This is interesting, thanks! But do I understand this correctly: is it some extra 4 M for them to spend for a 500 M or say 75 M, at a rate of 15 per cent, in possible tax benefits for FFH:)? If this is true, then this deal is more than a ten bagger just on this tax benefit basis:)))

Maybe a dumb question, but where could I see direct info on FFH adding BB? Isn't it supposed to be reported somewhere under insider transactions? https://dataroma.com/m/ins/ins.php?t=y&&sym=BB&o=fd&d=d

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231116657046/en/Farmers-Edge-Announces-Fairfax-Privatization-Offer

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-16/biden-again-calls-xi-a-dictator-showing-limits-of-cooperation#xj4y7vzkg

I saw this and thought it was strange, but maybe Prem and Alan were included more like to give this bid some extra weight because of their local status or something?

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/16/charlie-munger-says-there-isnt-the-slightest-chance-buffett-traded-own-account-to-enrich-himself.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-15/nate-anderson-carson-block-become-sec-tipsters-for-cash-payouts?srnd=premium-europe The practice is widespread, with big-name short sellers Nate Anderson, Kyle Bass and Carson Block among the tipsters. If the SEC investigates and levies a fine, a short seller can collect up to 30% of the proceeds. That’s on top of any profit they might make by betting on the stock’s decline. The whistleblower program is open to all comers — including short sellers, corporate insiders and random internet investors — and the would-be informants can’t get enough of it. They’ve flooded the agency with over 18,000 formal tips in the 2023 fiscal year. For perspective, that 12-month tally is double the total of all SEC enforcement actions over the past 10 years.

Obviously, they switched to FFH, we just can not see this:)

I recently stumbled on some youtube interviews with Christoph Waltz. Seems very nice and interesting person. And than realised that I almost do not remember Django Unchained. I hope to rewatch it soon / sometimes it is good to have not so good memory:)

Only if you live in Denmark? Borrowers may redeem their mortgage loans at any time without negotiating the price, as prepayment may always take place at the prevailing market prices. Danish mortgage borrowers may terminate their loans by buying back the mortgage bonds in the bond market and delivering them to the mortgage bank. This option is referred to as the delivery option or the buy-back option. The buy-back option applies to all mortgage bonds whether callable or non-callable.

https://www.ft.com/content/c587a47a-fa2e-4d86-b22d-16b0dcdfb4a9 "Reinsurance executives, also speaking at the event, warned that inflationary factors, and a push to improve profitability after years of losses, meant prices were unlikely to soften. “A market correction was needed,” said SiriusPoint’s chief executive Scott Egan. He forecast that there would be “no drop in rates” in January. “Reinsurers are prepared . . . to stand their ground.” The other thing I would like to ask: does anybody can explain why TRV trades at a such a high multiple vs FFH or even MKL, despite being valued very similarly (all at ~1.3 BV?) 5 years ago? How does this makes any sense? Not the best chart, but to ilustrate the question:

https://www.ft.com/content/dd9ba2f6-f509-42f0-8e97-4271c7b84ded Despite its consumer success, OpenAI seeks to make progress towards building artificial general intelligence, Altman said. Large language models (LLMs), which underpin ChatGPT, are “one of the core pieces . . . for how to build AGI, but there’ll be a lot of other pieces on top of it”. While OpenAI has focused primarily on LLMs, its competitors have been pursuing alternative research strategies to advance AI. Altman said his team believed that language was a “great way to compress information” and therefore developing intelligence, a factor he thought that the likes of Google DeepMind had missed. “[Other companies] have a lot of smart people. But they did not do it. They did not do it even after I thought we kind of had proved it with GPT-3,” he said. Ultimately, Altman said “the biggest missing piece” in the race to develop AGI is what is required for such systems to make fundamental leaps of understanding. “There was a long period of time where the right thing for [Isaac] Newton to do was to read more math textbooks, and talk to professors and practice problems . . . that’s what our current models do,” said Altman, using an example a colleague had previously used. But he added that Newton was never going to invent calculus by simply reading about geometry or algebra. “And neither are our models,” Altman said. “And so the question is, what is the missing idea to go generate net new . . . knowledge for humanity? I think that’s the biggest thing to go work on.”

I am really not expecting this or counting on this...but stranger things have happened and it a lot of cases complexity, especially if that was a story of some geniuses being involved, was enabler and even necessary to justify nonsensical valuations or earnings projections:) Isn't the most important things driving story value are story telling itself, but even more importantly, price action of the stock? As with FFH (or insurance more broadly at the time?) this "story" story also happened once. Of course, lets stay conservative: maybe 1.5-1.7 BV would be all right / enough for the next (this?) time:)

https://www.barrons.com/articles/treasury-auction-bond-yields-stock-market-db08c04b https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-09/el-erian-says-2024-s-big-fear-is-credit-risk-as-fed-rate-peaks