UK

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-hot-oceans-hurricane-data/ This does not explain FFH vs other insurance stocks though...

So another quarterly profit sized amount as with Sleep? And why should this be necessarily perceived as bad from the start?

:)))

First two makes no sense to me and not even a news of the last week? But what do I know:). Third could be the real thing, as maybe also fears of the hurrucane season would, but other insurance stocks not going down as much (or at all). So this is either some noise, perhaps also low volume related or maybe there is a chance we could see a new "update" from MW, but why whould they not did this during silent period then? Maybe were busy deleting old tweets...It is tempting to buy some additional shares near BV:)

I think their reason was as simple as that i.e. MW attack and this is were their analysis ends. But I am curious if these requirements still are the same as in February or there were recent changes? Or why would you run into this situation now again? If IB changes its margin rules so arbitrary, maybe it is safer to use some leverage via options instead of margin (not in FFH case though) then?

Is this the same situation since MW attack in Winter or is it something recent/new? Maybe that is the thing driving FFH price down:)

But it seems this dip is only FFH related, because I do not see many insurance stocks in the red. Perhaps it is just some kind of noise.

This is so true! And at the same time I think nobody knows much about the future either. Maybe this short panic will be enough for a sentiment reset, maybe not yet. Even anecdotally, some people I know, who were eager to buy NVDA just at the top a few weeks ago, already do not want to look at it now, after it is down almost 30 percent or actually to look at anything at all:), so looks promising. But If you look at this episode not at as an isolation, but it terms of what markets (and economy) did in the last 15 years, then I do not know, maybe there is a case to be somewhat more demanding? At least until the next year/elections or maybe until FED communicates at some point whatever on earth they are going to do next etc. One thing to a some degree I have a feeling about though, is I do not understand how one could be excited much or at all on the index level (again this is not telling much about particular securities) at the current valuations. SNP at an estimated (likely not conservative or recession adjusted) ~250 EPS for a next year would be only 20x at a level of 5.000 (we are not even there yet). Down 20 percent from it, it would be at a another nice round number of 4.000, which would coincide with a 20 year forward average of 16x. I could be very wrong, but I just do not think it makes a lot sense to become very offensive until at least similar level. And I do not event want to start discussing some greedy levels suggested by some using Shiller or whatever PE. Again all this is more about market / index and not about any of anybody's favorite investment:)

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-08-05/warren-buffett-s-277-billion-hoard-after-unloading-apple-is-a-warning But nothing really new or interesting.

I am not against big ambitions, but just to highlight, 2x in 4 years is a 19 CAGR...would not use the words such as "cannot even" to describe such returns myself:)

This is from SA: PacifiCorp faces at least $46B in claims related to wildfires in the western U.S. following recent lawsuits in Oregon, the utility company disclosed late Monday in a Form 10-Q filing. Plaintiffs in four separate mass complaints filed between April 29 and July 31 are seeking $43B in economic, non-economic and punitive damages linked to the catastrophic Labor Day fires in September 2020, part of broader litigation that has yielded several jury verdicts against PacifiCorp, as explained by S&P Global; the utility is appealing the verdicts. "PacifiCorp believes the magnitude of damages sought by the class members in the James mass complaints to be of remote likelihood of being awarded based on the amounts awarded in the jury verdicts," the filing said. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) (BRK.A) reported an additional ~$3B in outstanding complaints and demands filed against PacifiCorp in Oregon and California, "excluding any doubling or trebling of damages." PacifiCorp said it has paid $1.02B in settlements related to wildfires in Oregon and California and has reached agreements to pay another $199M, and has reported $2.66B in cumulative estimated probable wildfire-related losses through the end of Q2. 46 B? I really hate this US style / Better Call Saul litigation...nothing ever good come from it for me.

Hopefully the consequence is, after FFH will be done buying back some 20 or 30 percent of shares, valuation will finally increase to a level it will no longer makes sense doing buybacks anymore. But by then they will be able to issue a lot of new shares and use them as an expensive currency for a new acreative acquisitions or other ideas:) Seriously, I never considered FFH going private as a risk, or is it?

That was just unwinding of unwinding...now wait for unwinding of unwinding of unwinding:)))

This is also quite interesting: https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/07/24/how-ukraines-new-tech-foils-russian-aerial-attacks

Good one!:)

+1

I think there is no one answer for everybody, you have to find what suits you. It could not even be always the same and change with age or other circumstances. Dealraker's aproach is a great one, I am thinking a lot about it and will copy it partialy or fully one day. Already started a bit:). Sometimes I think that just managing/owning concentrated portfolio, always fully invested, also would be fine. But if you have time and too much energy, you also can do several things at once. I recently bought a first new larger investment in almost 2 years, while market was at an ATH and I was not thinking about the market much. But at the same time I still alow myself to move from being 70-80 to 120-130 invested (while most of the time being closer to 100), according to market sentiment, valuations, number of opportunities etc and somehow it seems this aproach also works for me or at least provides for a better sleep sometimes:). Being some 80 percent invested, when market is frothy, will not harm me that much, even if it continues that way for a while, especially since I own only 4-5 positions, but it will alow me to add a really good 1 or 2 opportunities if and when they come:)

I have no idea really, but are you suggesting this is something like a market panic of 87 or 98?

Nothing much in terms of valuations, I agree, but volatility seems just too high.

This is above my paygrade, but I do not think deficits preclude this.

I think at this pace they soon will have to try to fix, if not economy, than at least something more market related. Wix just hit 65, all this seems turning into almost covid level panic:)

I see lot of noise and crazy movements even where market is open, BRK was -10 in Germany, perhaps algorithms are trading a lot:)

Maybe they can, but then maybe also all this could develop into a big currency problem. Maybe a time has come for a test of this "Japan fiscal and monetary experimet"?

Not sure if this rule (whatever it means, I still do not know:)) has much to do with this. After constantly going up with a very low volatility for almost a 2 years, recent M7/AI FOMO and very bullish sentiment / little fear left, market was just ripe for a something like this this. Perfect setup as they say:). Even anecdotal evidences / contra indicators were all flashing red in a last few month: it seems everyone wanted to invest again, particularly into this "chip company with a market share of 80 percent":). Valuation wise, SnP is still at only some 20x forward earnings, not very scary in isolation, but perhaps also it could easily go until at least an average of a last 20 years of 16x, but 16-18x still would be just normal or nothing special. But with an Autumn and US election coming maybe all this has a decent chance to even become of a something more special. I have no idea, but my gut felling is it is to early for a usual dip buying. It might be even not to late to sell something. As always, I will not be playing these games of a musical chairs with a bulk of my portfolio, but would love to move to the offensive side of the positioning again:). We will see.