Blake Hampton

I like energy: - BRY - ECTM - OXY

I'll start off by saying that there's a difference between the quality of a business and the price you have to pay for it in order to make an adequate return. For example, Apple is certainly one the best businesses in the world with a return on shareholder's equity of nearly 165% in 2024. For every $1 invested in the business itself, they made a return of $1.65 in earnings. But the question that we must consider is what is the correct price to pay for such a business? If you could buy in with Apple at book value you'd make an absolute windfall. The same goes at 2x book, 3x book, all the way to maybe 25 - 30x book if you really believe in the business. But their currently experiencing negative growth and they're facing fierce competition in China. I would personally not be comfortable buying into their business at their current multiple of 59x book. That's just too expensive and seems like too much risk. This same logic goes for Nvidia, Netflix, a ton of companies that I would describe as great businesses selling at awful valuations. It also doesn't help that I'm not an expert on much tech. As for Hong Kong, I've been there and done that. They have companies that look extremely cheap on paper but I simply don't trust the Chinese Government. Property rights do not apply over there, especially for ADRs, and you may just well see that the cash on that balance sheet never moves. The only thing that would interest me in international equities like that would be a huge dividend yield such as what was offered at PBR. But even then I remain skeptical.

You are describing speculation.

Can anyone explain how the point system works on this forum? I thought it was directly influenced by your number of posts, but I guess it isn't?

Reddit - RDDT ---------------------------------------------- Price: 182.40 Shares outstanding (in M): 176 Market cap (in $M): 32,102 Net debt (in $M): -322 TEV (in $M): 31,780 Tangible equity (in $M): 1,908 Trailing nine-month earnings (in $M): -555 ---------------------------------------------- Their equity is nearly all cash and bonds. Looks like speculation to me.

I think a politics section would be great, but maybe Parsad knows why it's not...

True, but I do think some periods are worse than others. I would argue that now is pretty bad. However, if you were to compare it to Goebbels and Nazi Germany, it might look pretty mundane. It's all relative.

It's called reading history

What do you think about a decrease in prices?

Maybe. But you’re definitely not looking at this situation by the actual figures.

I don’t know everything there is to know about being a Fed Chair. But I would assume it’s very difficult to manage interest rate policy considering how it lags. When inflation is rising at 9% YOY, I don’t think they can just offer everyone hope that it’ll go back down. Price stability is literally one their mandates, they have to act.

The one in 2020 where the treasury market almost broke. How is it Powell’s fault that Congress could never get control of their budget, so now we’re in a situation where the Treasury market is fucked. Or how is it his fault that so many companies completely rely on debt markets for short-term liquidity. He is simply one man, against seemingly the entire world, who was in-effect trying to save it. I believe that he did an outstanding job, and I think the future problem will be that nobody noticed.

I strongly believe that we’re living in a period of unprecedented disinformation and madness. There are so many people that have shunned reputable institutions, and in turn, have started to believe the most wild things they can find on the internet. People don’t read books, they don’t read newspapers, they don’t consume anything that’s outside of mainstream TikTok, Facebook, TV trash. We have markets that are at their most expensive point in history, a government whose economics are massively unsustainable, a public that couldn’t get any dumber, and a president who has somehow found a way. Thanks for reading my daily rant.

Powell saved our economy from what was almost the worst credit crisis in U.S. history. He’s a hero who doesn’t get the respect that he deserves.

I spent a while writing out a long post on the now deleted forum that I was really quite proud of. When I went to post it, a message awaiting me said that the forum was now gone, just as well as my post. This is my punishment for bringing up politics. Anyways, the post was supposed to be a reply to @Gregmal concerning the Fed. Sorry Greg but here's a shorter version: - J. Powell is a hero and I don't think any of this is his fault - Long-term financing markets are screwed up - Our presidents and congressmen are behaving like morons, especially concerning economics Good night everyone.

My god

My best guess is China due to their strong manufacturing base, but I also don't think they understand property rights over there. The U.S. honestly seems like the best place to be still. I would argue that our situation isn't great but I still think it's better than the current positions of the EU, Africa, South America, etc. Even reconsidering China, they're currently going through a debilitating property crisis and they carry a ton of debt, some of which isn't even on the books. I think the whole world is in for a tougher time in which the U.S. will continue to lead.

Here's a chart:

I wouldn't be so sure: When A.I.’s Output Is a Threat to A.I. Itself - NYT

Something interesting I've noticed is how Buffett was sounding alarms non-stop on the trade deficit pre-2008. Afterwards, almost nothing. Why? Did his perception towards the dollar change in some material way?

*This is hyper mega ultra bullish!

It's okay because Trump will make it better. #SaveTikTok

While I'm here, I have a question for anyone interested. How much more should I value the tax advantages of a 401(k) type account over the amount of investment options outside of it? I do think that tax advantaged accounts are incredible, especially Roths. What I don't like is that all the employer plans seem to have the worst investment options. I think I would do far better buying individual equities than the market at current prices. Thoughts?

Why pay taxes when you don't have to? The blame falls on our legislators.