Kizion

Came across a name today - Orion SA - when reading through earnings calls I noticed they referred to tariffs as being positive for their business. As also locally (in US) manufacturing of tyres. Will have to look more into the name myself, but thought I could already share it here.

You added during recent decline? I came across the name in list of future spin offs, and remembered it was mentioned in "best ideas for 2025" topic.

Damn he's walking on a thin line with his answers.

CPNG drop after earnings also due next week

Once you tried the tiramisu, I don’t think you will ever go back. It’s definitely a demanding valuation - on short term they are indeed supply restricted (until 2026) but this should be partly compensated by higher ARPU (less promotions) in mature markets. In 2023 they had a 10% volume increase, however a 20% sales increase thanks to 10% price uplift. I’m not saying they will reach a 20% sales increase in 2025, however the pricing power gives me comfort. Knowing that chocolate snack alternatives have a cost headwind and will also try to push it on the consumer, it will give Lotus the possibility to also increase prices slightly. If you compare it with Nestle or Mondelez, they don’t show any organic growth (or growth at all) and are valued at 20x earnings. 50x earnings for a 15% earnings grower seems reasonable. Growth should come from entering new markets with Biscoff (e.g. India, Australia, …), increase in consumption of existing Biscoff customers and further growth of their healthy snack business. I would think Nestle or Mondelez would love to take over Lotus at current valuation. However it’s not for sale. I like the thought that I can own a brand like this (just as I also would love to own Nutella or Lego). My goal is 8% yearly return, that I estimate to be possible with Lotus.

Did the same thing, unfortunately only today. Thought about a position a couple of times during 2024. As a Belgian and lover of all Lotus products, this is something I just need to have in my portfolio. Price is demanding but nothing that reasonable growth cannot overcome. Still new markets to conquer and current markets to expand. They also keep finding new product offerings based on Biscoff (spread, icecream, mixed with chocolate, …). Still remember well the start of the spread (2007 apparently), which was invented by a participant to a TV show where people had to pitch their “invention”, which was the spread (until that moment people just put some biscoff cookies between slices of bread). My favorite way to eat biscoff is to dip it in icecold milk, let it rest for 2-3 seconds (to allow it to become a bit soft and absorb the milk). By the way, if you like tiramisu, you will like it even more when you replace the normal cookies by biscoff.

I don't mind red days, but then they should be bloody red. Not this. Or it's a real threath and AI related stocks (incl. MAG7 ones) should go down +10%. Or it's not a real threath and nothing changed and we can continue upwards. Please, give me Meta at 450 or Google at 150

Interesting, could you share your thesis? Too much run up in past weeks? Looks still on lowish side if you zoom out a few years (excluding the peak due to UK-RU).

I'm a "new" dad from Belgium - we get around 4 weeks of parental leave just after birth and are able to have 4 months full time off, which are free to take until the kid is 12 years old. The first 2-3 weeks are OK, because it's new, need to learn a lot and time flies, but I remember I was pretty relieved to be able to go back to work and do something else than watching the baby after those 3 weeks (even though I don't like my work). However, I can confirm that staying home and being there with mother and child are precious moments. And if I was in the situation you're in, I wouldn't doubt and also take the 15 months leave. However, what will your situation be with daycare? Will the baby be home all the time or will it go to a daycare at some time during the 15 months? I just ask because being at home with your child 24/24 7/7 is quite intensive and after a while it can indeed give a not very fullfilling feeling (as the "only" thing you do is taking care of the baby). In that case I would suggest to arrange some me-time for each of you. For example 1-2 days per week each of you is "off" and can do whatever you want (work on investing, sports, seeing friends, ...). In short, having time with you child is precious, but you need also to make time for other things after a while. Related to the 3 months you're alone, I assume this is at the end, so when the baby is +12 months. This is the "nice" period. I liked it the best after 6 months (which I really don't like) and before 18-24 months, as after that they are great but also more difficult (read, more tiring). Again, if you have no daycare during that period, being a full time dad will be nice but intensive. Ideally you at least have 1 day per workweek where you can have me-time (even if it just a day where you don't have any plans, but not having the responsibility to think of the child is needed). Also a factor to take into consideration (at least in BE) is the season/weather. It's much more easy to take care of your child when it's sunny and warm, because you can find activities to keep them busy much more easy.

What will be the play? Long? Short?

How do you take leverage into account in your returns? I also have used quite some margin at the beginning of this year, and I'm wondering how to consider it for my annual return calculation. At the moment, I'm including my leverage to calculate my returns, in other words, I consider my leverage as my own money for my return calculation. I'm "only" having a return of 20% in 2024 ("only", as it's quite low compared to the other posts here and if you compare it to the S&P500). Overall, I'm quite happy with past year performance as I should just compare this yearly performance to my long term goal of 8% return and I think I've become again a bit better investor compared to 1/1/2024. Still 2 decades to compound my knowledge to retirement Main lesson of 2024 is to just buy stocks I want to keep for a couple of years, not just for a quick trade (if the latter is the case, I just need to buy options). I didn't buy any companies that I regret, but I'm just too impatient and take my losses and profits too eagerly. In BE we pay 0,35% of the transaction value, and if you're like me, that's a high amount at the end of the year. My result could have been 6% better by just reducing my transactions by 90%. I'm thinking to limit my yearly transactions to 20.

You give a lot of credit to the retail investor - in my opinion, too much. Not only do they have to be aware of the market cap of the blue-chip bank stock, they have to be smart enough to listen to the advice of the "common" people (non-BTC believers) and be contrarian to the cult that has made them 50% gain. What's a dividend compared to "the sky is the limited" gains?

Not sure it’s smart but sold Apple shares (short) and bought JOE and MSGE for the same amount. Exchange of overvalued stock for undervalued

didn’t you buy your last ones last week? You promised us!

Fascinated on the topic, so thanks for sharing the video. Fun to watch! However I'm not sure the women on dating sites (where they have to be very selective) are representative for society. For example in video he says that women are more selective on Tinder vs. OKCupid and he links it to being more selective for casual fun, while probably they need to be more selective as they have x times more candidates than chances to go on a date.