Kizion

I don't mind red days, but then they should be bloody red. Not this. Or it's a real threath and AI related stocks (incl. MAG7 ones) should go down +10%. Or it's not a real threath and nothing changed and we can continue upwards. Please, give me Meta at 450 or Google at 150

Interesting, could you share your thesis? Too much run up in past weeks? Looks still on lowish side if you zoom out a few years (excluding the peak due to UK-RU).

I'm a "new" dad from Belgium - we get around 4 weeks of parental leave just after birth and are able to have 4 months full time off, which are free to take until the kid is 12 years old. The first 2-3 weeks are OK, because it's new, need to learn a lot and time flies, but I remember I was pretty relieved to be able to go back to work and do something else than watching the baby after those 3 weeks (even though I don't like my work). However, I can confirm that staying home and being there with mother and child are precious moments. And if I was in the situation you're in, I wouldn't doubt and also take the 15 months leave. However, what will your situation be with daycare? Will the baby be home all the time or will it go to a daycare at some time during the 15 months? I just ask because being at home with your child 24/24 7/7 is quite intensive and after a while it can indeed give a not very fullfilling feeling (as the "only" thing you do is taking care of the baby). In that case I would suggest to arrange some me-time for each of you. For example 1-2 days per week each of you is "off" and can do whatever you want (work on investing, sports, seeing friends, ...). In short, having time with you child is precious, but you need also to make time for other things after a while. Related to the 3 months you're alone, I assume this is at the end, so when the baby is +12 months. This is the "nice" period. I liked it the best after 6 months (which I really don't like) and before 18-24 months, as after that they are great but also more difficult (read, more tiring). Again, if you have no daycare during that period, being a full time dad will be nice but intensive. Ideally you at least have 1 day per workweek where you can have me-time (even if it just a day where you don't have any plans, but not having the responsibility to think of the child is needed). Also a factor to take into consideration (at least in BE) is the season/weather. It's much more easy to take care of your child when it's sunny and warm, because you can find activities to keep them busy much more easy.

What will be the play? Long? Short?

How do you take leverage into account in your returns? I also have used quite some margin at the beginning of this year, and I'm wondering how to consider it for my annual return calculation. At the moment, I'm including my leverage to calculate my returns, in other words, I consider my leverage as my own money for my return calculation. I'm "only" having a return of 20% in 2024 ("only", as it's quite low compared to the other posts here and if you compare it to the S&P500). Overall, I'm quite happy with past year performance as I should just compare this yearly performance to my long term goal of 8% return and I think I've become again a bit better investor compared to 1/1/2024. Still 2 decades to compound my knowledge to retirement Main lesson of 2024 is to just buy stocks I want to keep for a couple of years, not just for a quick trade (if the latter is the case, I just need to buy options). I didn't buy any companies that I regret, but I'm just too impatient and take my losses and profits too eagerly. In BE we pay 0,35% of the transaction value, and if you're like me, that's a high amount at the end of the year. My result could have been 6% better by just reducing my transactions by 90%. I'm thinking to limit my yearly transactions to 20.

You give a lot of credit to the retail investor - in my opinion, too much. Not only do they have to be aware of the market cap of the blue-chip bank stock, they have to be smart enough to listen to the advice of the "common" people (non-BTC believers) and be contrarian to the cult that has made them 50% gain. What's a dividend compared to "the sky is the limited" gains?

Not sure it’s smart but sold Apple shares (short) and bought JOE and MSGE for the same amount. Exchange of overvalued stock for undervalued

didn’t you buy your last ones last week? You promised us!

Fascinated on the topic, so thanks for sharing the video. Fun to watch! However I'm not sure the women on dating sites (where they have to be very selective) are representative for society. For example in video he says that women are more selective on Tinder vs. OKCupid and he links it to being more selective for casual fun, while probably they need to be more selective as they have x times more candidates than chances to go on a date.

I guess this is the thesis - looked at in July thanks to the thread, but decided to put in on my watchlist but not to buy.

I confirm that statement - I use DeGiro & IB, for me both valid options, but have bit more confidence in IB (subjective).

haha, I have a pool since last year and I only regret it - only luck is that it came with a house we bought and I didn’t make the decision myself. Reason why I don’t like it is because cost benefit it’s negative for me. It takes me too much effort to maintain during summer and it costs me a lot of money (electricity for pump, heat pump (dont use it tbh), products & time) vs. the few times we could actually enjoy it. I hope it turns more beneficial once kids can start using it.

I understand the comparison cash vs. BTC, but why was an instant bank transfer not an option for your contractor? Curious, but even without an answer, a bank transfer is OK for most other use-cases, no? BTC as alternative for a bank transfer is less favourable, right?

It seems peanuts compared to the market cap of Chinese equities (hence, my expected impact is nihil) - or do I miss something?

Definitely, +1