Haryana

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

IMF Staff Country Reports https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/12/18/India-2023-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-542605 " STAFF APPRAISAL 57. India’s strong economic performance, supported by macroeconomic and financial stability, is expected to continue with balanced risks. India is today one of the fastest growing economies globally, with projected growth at 6.3 percent. Headline inflation is expected to gradually decline towards the target although it has been volatile due to food price shocks. The economy has potential to grow faster and more sustainably if a comprehensive structural reform agenda is implemented. Risks are balanced, with a global growth slowdown and adverse weather shocks most salient on the downside, and more resilient consumption and private investment on the upside. " IND2023.pdf

Thank you for your great analysis. Net earnings in Q3 was over a billion. Income in Q4 is likely to be higher in each of Insurance, Interest and Investments. This makes me guess Q4 earnings to be over 1.5 billion after adding ~300mm for GIG. Thus earnings per share in Q4 could be about 65/share taking the 2023 total to 185/share. Looking forward to annual earnings of about 200/share to get normalized over the coming years. Certainly, there will be lumpiness but how about we project 1000/share of earnings over five year periods. This fits in well as quick mental model to get a double every 5 years and you are getting annual return of 15%.

With regards to whether they will book the GIG gain in Q4, they should or should not? Thanks.

Guessing Q4 income to be over 1.5 billion.

Canadian veteran journalist Terry Milewski has a full book on this issue. https://archive.org/details/blood-for-blood_202107/page/n3/mode/2up He joins Punit Sahani in this insightful exposure how "Khalistanis Lie Shamelessly".

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/leads-soon-on-india-consulate-attack-fbi-chief-christopher-wray-told-delhi-sources-4662505 [ Visiting Federal Bureau of Investigation or FBI Director Christopher Wray has assured India that the US is probing attack on the Indian Consulate in San Francisco "aggressively" and would be able to share "credible" leads soon, sources said. Mr Wray met National Investigation Agency Director Dinkar Gupta on second day of his visit on Tuesday. In March, a group of Khalistan supporters attacked and damaged the Indian Consulate. It was again attacked in July. The NIA team had visited San Francisco in August and returned with some leads. The meeting between the investigating agency chiefs comes on the heels of Washington's allegations about an Indian link to a foiled plot to kill Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on American soil. ] https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-12-12/india-requests-fbi-to-share-intel-on-sikh-separatists-source [ The issue of what New Delhi says are Sikh separatists operating against India from U.S. soil was discussed in "greater detail by a team of internal security officials from both countries", the official said. "India has requested the U.S. officials to share inputs on suspected individuals who have in recent years been recruited and embedded in the separatist movement," the official said. The NIA said in a statement on Tuesday that Wray met NIA Director General Dinkar Gupta and held discussions on issues including "the acts and activities of Terrorist-Organised Criminal Networks, ongoing investigations in the US in the attack on the Indian consulate in San Francisco, investigations of cyber-terror and cyber-crimes of various kinds." ]

https://www.msn.com/en-in/sports/cricket/virat-kohli-most-searched-cricketer-of-all-time-as-google-completes-25-years/ar-AA1ln9Qy Virat Kohli most searched cricketer of all time as Google completes 25 years He is the brand ambassador of Digit Insurance in India. He and his celebrity wife are also personally invested in company. https://www.facebook.com/virat.kohli/videos/being-digit-general-insurance-brand-ambassador-customer-and-investor-im-proud-to/1687471911593420/

Foreigners Turn Bullish on India Stock Futures After Modi’s Wins (Bloomberg) Thu, December 7, 2023 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/foreigners-turn-bullish-india-stock-064019496.html " Stocks extended gains to fresh record highs this week, as the local election results are seen diminishing risk of political upheaval in national polls next year. The NSE Nifty 50 Index is up 16% so far this year, outperforming most Asian peers as investors bet on strong earnings growth and improvement in domestic consumption as well as the likelihood of Modi winning a third term. "

Not local, she is international with more than a million subscribers. She talks based of facts and figures instead of bias and prejudice.

I just like to quote this from the 2022 letter: "This rapid growth in the last five years focused on underwriting profit and not reaching for yield. This has resulted in our expected future annual operating income of more than $3.0 billion: $1.5 billion from interest and dividend income, more than $1.0 billion in underwriting profit and more than $0.5 billion profit from non-insurance companies (associates and consolidated investments), resulting in Fairfax earning approximately $100 per share even without any potential gains on our stock positions! " With expected increases in interest income and from investments, we may upgrade the annual estimate to 4 billion. Dividing this by the current market cap we get a P/E of 5.5. Nothing too speculative, this is a conservative scenario.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/indictment-india-canada-gupta-nijjar-1.7045174 [ Arindam Bagchi, spokesperson for India's external affairs ministry, said the country has set up a high-level inquiry in response to the indictment. "As regards the case against an individual that has been filed in a U.S. court, allegedly linking him to an Indian official, this is a matter of concern. We have said, and let me reiterate, that this is also contrary to government policy," he said Thursday morning. Bagchi took a tougher stance on Canada's allegations. "Insofar as Canada is concerned, we have said that they have consistently given space to anti-India extremists and violence. And that is at the heart of the issue," he said. "We have also seen interference by Canadian diplomats in our internal affairs. This is obviously unacceptable." ]

Not hurt about losing the semifinals or finals. I am unbiased and see the trophies as insignificant images of vanity. Do you realize what a rare feat of achievement is to be #1 on all 3 formats at the same time? Human attitude displayed by you guys totally explains the discounted share price of Fairfax. The company is firing on all cylinders and the people have their focus on where they went wrong like Blackberry.

In recently concluded World Cup, India was the only country to win all 9 round-robin matches. Then they won the semi-final and lost the final; which was a loss after winning streak of 10. You can call that a shooting star or going down in flames, depending on your bias/propaganda. https://www.cricketworldcup.com/standings Regardless, India is currently #1 on all three formats of Cricket: 1. Men's T20I Team Rankings https://www.icc-cricket.com/rankings/mens/team-rankings/t20i 2. Men's ODI Team Rankings https://www.icc-cricket.com/rankings/mens/team-rankings/odi 3. Men's Test Team Rankings https://www.icc-cricket.com/rankings/mens/team-rankings/test

More interesting commentary from Samer Hakoura of Alphyn Capital Management, LLC Letter to investors, Q4 2022 https://www.alphyncap.com/uploads/1/4/1/2/14123551/acml_2022-q4.pdf " Fairfax shares have remained flat over five years despite this quarter's solid share price performance. I had a conversation with someone in the company's investor relations department and asked what feedback they might be getting from investors regarding the medium-term share price performance. Were investors still upset with the company for the expensive and ill-timed macro hedges from years ago? His response was interesting: growth investors are attracted to different companies during boom times, and deep value investors look for badly beaten down companies that could rebound aggressively. Unfortunately, Fairfax doesn't easily fit into either of those categories and has largely been ignored for the last few years. I read a report recently that described Fairfax as a "non-obvious growth stock," and I think the description is appropriate. From looking at the share price over the last five years, you would not know that Fairfax has been executing on several metrics. Consider that Fairfax's "gross premiums written" per share has compounded almost 18% from 2015-2021. It grew a further 19% in the first nine months of 2023). The insurance business is, of course, the engine of Fairfax's growth. With Fairfax's disciplined underwriting, insurance has averaged 2% profit for the last five years. Insurance also generates float, which the company reinvests. Float per share has grown 7% a year from 2017-2022, and Fairfax's investment portfolio has, in turn, increased from just under $28bn in 2015 to $51.5bn as of Q3 2021. As Fairfax generates a total return of approximately 5.7% on its investments, on a simplified calculation, we can see how this process has led to an additional $1.3bn in profits for the company. As a result, Fairfax's book value per share has grown by over 13% per year for the last six years. When one also considers the company's capital allocation, such as the sale of its pet insurance business which added $42/share gain on sale, buybacks, and the opportunity for increased profitability in the bond portfolio from higher interest rates, and growth from improving the operations of some of its privately held businesses, it has plenty of opportunity to continue compounding at faster rates. The share price should eventually catch up with the company's underlying economics. "

Samer Hakoura Alphyn Capital https://www.alphyncap.com/uploads/1/4/1/2/14123551/acml_2023-q3.pdf " The long game “The daily blips of the market are, in fact, noise -- noise that is very difficult for most investors to tune out.” – Seth Klarman Investing in the stock market can often test one’s patience. There are stretches of time when returns seem stagnant or even negative. Fairfax Financial serves as an apt illustration. Throughout our almost 5-year holding period, our investment in Fairfax has compounded at approximately 17% per annum, closely matching its impressive 25-year record of book value growth. However, it did not grow over a straight line. Fairfax’s share price largely stagnated for nearly five years of ownership, impacted by short-term issues, including macroeconomic uncertainties, underperforming investments, and challenges with operating companies arising from the pandemic. Yet, over the last year, the shares rallied as the market began to recognize its robust insurance business and the benefits of a favorable insurance market, and the company’s patient, long-term capital allocation began to bear fruit. Had I lost patience and sold the shares at any point, we would have given up these returns and maybe shown a loss. It is natural to wonder if I could time my position entry better and miss the long sideways or negative periods. Unfortunately, I’ve found no reliable method of doing this. Despite numerous discussions with fellow investors and researching various market timing techniques—like moving averages and oscillators, interpreting short-term news, or trying to outsmart the market on next earnings “beats or misses” I haven’t found a reliable, practical approach. Most attempts to time investments may offer smoother journeys, but often at the cost of overall performance. At best, it’s a trade-off; at worst, it hampers overall returns. Of course, long-term holding is no guarantee of success, and our experience with Fairfax has not been replicated with all our holdings. Still, I believe that focusing on sound fundamental analysis, identifying undervalued companies, and maintaining a long-term perspective is more likely than not to lead to satisfactory outcomes. "

G&M on FDGE https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-farmers-edge-in-go-private-talks-for-tiny-fraction-of-ipo-price/

India’s VFX and animation industry booms with demand and innovation https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/voices/indias-vfx-and-animation-industry-booms-with-demand-and-innovation/ "... The Indian VFX and animation industry is projected to achieve a CAGR of 20% to 25%, reaching an estimated market value of INR 190 billion by 2025. The future looks promising, and we can anticipate more groundbreaking visual effects and animation work from India in the coming years."

That same report (reads like generated by AI) also includes the following: " Prem Watsa (Trades, Portfolio), the founder and CEO of Fairfax Financial Holdings, is a renowned investor often compared to Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio). With a career that began in 1974, Watsa has built a reputation for a conservative investment approach, focusing on long-term value and the prudent management of insurance float. Fairfax Financial's strategy, inspired by Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, has been pivotal in achieving sustained growth and shareholder value. "

They likely hired directly from high school for filing official documents to save money and brownie points. I know nothing about how or what they hire but this allegation sounds credible based on what happened.

Negative news but thanks for "party popping" here as well! What made you move to your "new base in Kuala Lumpur"?

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/us-invests-553-million-in-adanis-sri-lanka-port-to-curb-chinas-influence US Invests $553 Million in Adani's ... ... For Adani, US money may offer a stamp of legitimacy after allegations of fraud by short seller Hindenburg Research erased billions from the conglomerate’s market value earlier this year. The deepwater West Container Terminal in Colombo is the US government agency’s largest infrastructure investment in Asia, and among its biggest globally. It will bolster Sri Lanka’s economic growth and “its regional economic integration, including with India, a key partner to both countries,” DFC said in a statement. The funding is part of a global acceleration of DFC investments that totaled $9.3 billion in 2023. “It is a high priority for the US to be active in the Indo-Pacific region,” Scott Nathan, the DFC’s chief executive officer told reporters in Colombo Wednesday. “It is obviously the engine of economic growth for the world.” ...

Likely be fine with them taking 10 tiny positions if even just 3 of them become home runs. National Stock Exchange was also a tiny position until we got it in the rear view mirror. Jaynix and Maxop are likely to benefit from expected boom in manufacturing over decades.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/BND-Q/pressreleases/21252268/whats-worse-than-the-dot-com-crash-the-bond-market/ What’s Worse Than the Dot Com Crash? The Bond Market! "From 2008 to today, total public government debt has increased from $9 trillion to $33.58 trillion. By the time you read this, it will be over $33.6 trillion. The treasury department sells bonds to help pay the interest payments on that debt. That said, they are selling more bonds than ever before. To get buyers to purchase these bonds, they are forced to offer higher yields, which pushes the price of bonds down. The recent downgrade by Fitch Ratings made the situation worse by bringing into question the US’s ability to make the interest payments they owe."