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Everything posted by Haryana
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Just use any tool that includes dividends and use start month of May 2000 because that is when FRFHF data was available.
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Not including dividends when comparing Berkshire to anything is the biggest brainwash folks have been falling for decades.
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Bank Giant Bigger Than Morgan Stanley Arises From India Merger https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-30/india-s-hdfc-vaults-into-ranks-of-world-s-most-valuable-banks " HDFC surges ahead of banks including HSBC Holdings Plc and Citigroup Inc. The bank will also leave behind its Indian peers State Bank of India and ICICI Bank, with market capitalizations of about $62 billion and $79 billion, respectively, as of June 22. “Worldwide there are very few banks, which can at this scale and size, still aspire to double over a period of four years,” Suresh Ganapathy, head of financial services research for India at Macquarie Group Ltd.’s brokerage unit, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. The bank expects to grow at 18% to 20%, there is very good visibility in earnings growth, and they plan to double their branches in the next four years, he said. “HDFC Bank will remain a pretty formidable institution.” "
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Despite the so called lost decade and current undervaluation, Fairfax seem to outperform Berkshire so far this millennium.
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Guy turned his United lifetime pass into lifetime of perks
Haryana replied to rogermunibond's topic in General Discussion
I had learnt about this one as part of the following free course on Contract Law - (Very interesting case indeed) https://www.harvardonline.harvard.edu/course/contract-law-trust-promise-contract -
Not nuclear, the future is Solar.
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Currently, the nationalism of China is appearing to become a threat so the USA appears to be diversifying supply from India. By the time, nationalism of India appears to become a threat, China could be declining and USA could diversify to Indonesia.
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what is your opinion on Japan, is Japan less nationalistic than China/India?
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A simpler way of what you were trying to convey could be as follows: Those who are concerned about that fee structure of FairfaxIndia should understand that the fee has already been paid upto the book value of ~$18 and it applies only on returns in excess of first 5%. So, if the book value grows at only 5% per year average over the triannual periods for the next 10 years and the discount closes in the mean time, the ending stock price will be ~$30 and almost zero fee will be paid over these 10 years. The triannual averaging may ease the book value volatality. This means a return of about 8% per year assuming a conservative increase in book value of only 5%. Now, if you get a higher book value increase than 5%, leading to some fee having to be paid, then your stock return can be higher than 8%, then will you really have that fee to complain about?
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https://www.msn.com/en-in/lifestyle/travel/india-show-stopper-at-paris-air-show-air-india-finalises-mega-deal-for-470-planes/ar-AA1cQbgK The agreement, initially outlined in February, represents the largest-ever plane order in terms of the number of aircraft. This record-breaking achievement comes hot on the heels of a similar milestone set by Indian rival, IndiGo, which recently placed an order for 500 Airbus narrowbody jets. The finalized contract not only boosts Air India's standing in the aerospace industry but also underlines India's robust demand for air travel, driven by a rapidly growing population.
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Why PM Modi’s US visit is a big hit https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/pm-narendra-modi-us-visit-defence-jet-engine-deal-space-technology-joe-biden-12783732.html 1. General Electric announcing a collaboration with India’s state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd to produce fighter jet engines for the Indian Air Force. 2. New Delhi will also procure 31 High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) drones, MQ-9B, from General Atomics, in a mega deal worth billions of dollars. 3. The US Navy has also finalised a Master Ship Repair Agreement. This will allow US Navy ships in the region to undergo service and repair at Indian shipyards. 4. India’s Epsilon Carbon Limited to invest $650 million, largest ever Indian investment in the US electric vehicle battery industry. 5. Biden and Modi also hailed the launch of the US-India Defense Acceleration Ecosystem (INDUS-X) – a network of universities, startups, industry and think tanks. 6. ISRO astronauts will receive advanced training from NASA in order to kickstart a joint effort to the International Space Station in 2024. 7. Micron Technology announced its plan to invest up to USD 825 million to build a new $2.75 billion semiconductor assembly and test facility in Gujarat. 8. Applied Materials will set up a Semiconductor Centre for Commercialization and Innovation in India to boost semiconductor supply chain diversification. 9. US intends to open (new) consulates in Bengaluru and Ahmedabad, India is planning to open a consulate in Seattle later in 2023. 10. Google CEO Sundar Pichai informed Modi on Friday (23 June) about his plans to invest $10 billion in India’s digitisation fund. 11. India’s Sterlite Technologies to build an optical fibre cable manufacturing unit in South Carolina leading to $150 million in annual exports of optical fibre from India. 12. In a nearly hour-long address to US Congress, PM Modi’s speech was received well, with over 79 applause and 15 standing ovations.
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Maybe time to sell Fairfax and buy FairfaxIndia because they still have the same old classic format website - https://www.fairfaxindia.ca/news/press-releases/press-release-details/2023/Fairfax-India-Completes-Acquisition-of-an-Additional-3-Interest-in-Bangalore-International-Airport-Limited/default.aspx
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Did nobody notice the new splashy website of Fairfax with direct links to its network of companies and easy access to its historical milestones information - https://www.fairfax.ca/about-fairfax/
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https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/19/business/airbus-indigo-plane-deal-biggest-history/index.html " Airbus has just landed the biggest-ever aircraft order in the history of commercial aviation. The French aerospace giant announced Monday that budget Indian airline IndiGo had placed an order for 500 of its A320 planes, to be delivered between 2030 and 2035. The deal sets “the record for the biggest single purchase agreement in the history of commercial aviation,” Airbus (EADSY) said in a statement, and brings the total number of Airbus (EADSY) planes IndiGo has ordered to 1,330. Founded in 2006, IndiGo is India’s top airline by market share, according to its website. It flew 86 million customers in the last financial year. Aviation companies are eager to capitalize on India’s strong economy and its booming population, which may well translate into higher demand for air travel further down the line. In February, IndiGo’s rival Air India ordered more than 470 jets from Airbus and Boeing (BA). "
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This is so miniscule compared to Wells Fargo that it may be ignored. Buffett, for decades, sang praises of Wells Fargo, was his "Big Four". Our Buffett, the Prophet/Oracle, brainwash makes it difficult to see. 1. https://money.cnn.com/2016/09/21/investing/wells-fargo-fired-workers-retaliation-fake-accounts/index.html 2. https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/20/investing/wells-fargo-cfpb-foreclosure-fine/index.html " The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said Wells Fargo’s “illegal activity” included repeatedly misapplying loan payments, wrongfully foreclosing on homes, illegally repossessing vehicles, incorrectly assessing fees and interest and charging surprise overdraft fees. The CFPB ordered Wells Fargo (WFC) to pay the $1.7 billion civil penalty in addition to more than $2 billion to compensate consumers for a range of “illegal activity.” CFPB officials say this is the largest penalty imposed by the agency. The misconduct described by the CFPB echoes previously reported revelations that have emerged about Wells Fargo since 2016 when the bank’s fake-accounts scandal created a national firestorm. “Wells Fargo’s rinse-repeat cycle of violating the law has harmed millions of American families,” Rohit Chopra, the CFPB’s director, said in a statement. Officials also made clear on Tuesday that Wells Fargo is not nearly out of the penalty box with regulators. ‘Repeat offender’ Chopra described Wells Fargo as a “repeat offender” and a “corporate recidivist,” adding that Tuesday’s fine is just an “initial step” towards holding the bank accountable. During a call with reporters, Chopra said the new settlement should not be read as a signal that “Wells Fargo has moved past its long-standing problems or that the CFPB’s work is done here.” For instance, Chopra noted that the settlement does not provide immunity for individuals at Wells Fargo, and the agency recognizes the $3.7 billion in fines and restitution will not fix the bank’s problems. " 3. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/15/business/wells-fargo-carrie-tolstedt-jail.html
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This upcoming youtuber is going pretty anal on Fairfax (if you can handle the accent) -
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Use of the term "third world countries" is quite objectionable. This term could appear derogatory* to anyone from those places. *https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/third-world.asp
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Not have to guess, for sure, Prem Watsa grew up in India and passed out of the IIT system, the same brand of engineering and technology universities in India that Ajit Jain of Berkshire and Sundar Pichai (CEO of Google/Alphabet) came out from.
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Not sure if this was shared on this thread before but it reads like a good summary of what is being discussed here - https://www.edgepointwealth.com/article/Q4-2022-EdgePoint-commentary/ " While long-memory stocks exist in every market, the dynamic is magnified in Canada. The Canadian stock market is very narrow since there’s only a small group of companies to pick from. Institutional and retail investors have an opinion of just about every business. If you have been burned on a Canadian stock in the past, it can take years before you ever look at it again. Fairfax is the ultimate long-memory stock. It went from market darling to pariah. What should have been a comeback story was missed by investors afraid of getting hurt again. For the first 15 years of Fairfax’s life, it was one of Canada’s shining stars. The company grew its book value per share (BVPS), a proxy for the change in intrinsic value, from US$1.52/share to US$155.55/share for a compound annual growth rate of 39%.ii The CEO, Prem Watsa, was described by many as “Canada’s Warren Buffett”. By the late 1990s, the stock was trading at 5x BV (an unheard-of valuation for an insurance company). Just like the internet companies discussed at the value conference, high expectations in the stock market are often a recipe for disappointment. Fairfax was no exception. The company had a series of self-inflicted issues – first on the insurance side and then later with its investments. While BVPS has grown from US$155/share to US$570/share today,iii the multiple compression (from 5x BV to under 1x BV) has erased almost all the returns for investors. Fast-forward almost 25 years, the stock price finally surpassed its 1999 peak! An entire generation of investors had a painful experience. Imagine explaining to your clients that after years of losing money with Canada’s Warren Buffett…why this time is different. To avoid the pain, investors have vowed to stay away. "
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Curious to know whether the Chinese also exclude the large % of discouraged workers like it is done in US and Canada?
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That sounds unfair, a simlar argument could easily be made about India as well using just a few India specific stereotypes.
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Considering that US markets are currently nearing the highs and the Chinese markets are currently nearing the lows, those long term % results can easily flip to other side when compared during near highs of Chinese market and lows of US market.
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A brief history of American UFOs:
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All that toxic smoke in Canadian and Australian summer air is pure gold compared to these alien or UFO sightings because that smoke has some actual fire behind it.