Haryana

Domestic tourism is exploding already and Fairfax India with Bengaluru airport is still available for way below book value. Fairfax itself is getting the benefit of surge in Thomas Cook and also through increasing value of interest in Fairfax India. https://www.fmiblog.com/2023/12/18/india-sustainable-tourism-market-riverine-surge-to-us-151-88-million-aiding-a-19-3-cagr-by-2032-fmi/ https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/other/popular-tourist-destinations-in-india-swamped-as-year-end-tourism-explodes/ar-AA1mc77B [ Meanwhile, the travel frenzy is being reflected in the stock market as well. IndiGo has zoomed 22 per cent in the past 3 months. Travel intermediaries like EaseMyTrip and Thomas Cook India have risen up to 13% while International Travel House is up 23%. The rise in hotel stocks like the Taj Group and Lemon Tree Hotels is however more muted. ]

@vinod1 thank you for sharing your experience and insights. This poll is also like a game to practice emotional detachment.

CNBC India is a ‘perfect’ emerging market for investors, ETF expert suggests https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/india-is-a-perfect-emerging-market-for-investors-etf-expert-suggests/ar-AA1lWJnk [ Carter, who manages the India Internet & Ecommerce ETF (INQQ), underscored the significance of India's technology investments in particular. "What's coming along with that is $12 super computers," said Carter, referencing the Jio Bharat smartphone released this year, which aims to close the connectivity gap between India's rural and urban populations. "The smartphone is bringing those billions of consumers online for the first time." That, according to Carter, is revolutionizing the financial system in a country of more than one billion people. ]

Wondering if you might be exhibiting some Wall of Worry phase type symptoms. Are you feeling some fears/worries that you are avoiding either side of the bet? (as all can see and for those who are yet to notice, this poll is nonanonymous) Even the No team members are estimating a price point of 1800/1850. The movements based on history are expected to be volatile/lumpy. Touching 2000 intraday is only a ~10% volatility from 1800/1850.

@Thrifty3000 thank you for expressing what you think. Everyone, please feel free to explain your side of the bet. Projecting 2000 from the current 900 is a rate of 22% or 23% with dividends. You should be on the Yes team if you are estimating that rate over four years. Also, this is like an American style option where you can win anytime before the expiration. The Yes team will win as soon as either the book value or the share price touches US2000.

@Thrifty3000 What you think?

India’s Economy in 2023: A Year-End Review Melissa Cyrill As we near the end of 2023, we recap key developments shaping India’s economy and keeping it poised for rapid growth going into 2024. Following a successful moon mission and hosting the G20 Summit, India is positioned to emerge from 2023 with increased stability and optimism for its growth and future prospects. The country’s attractiveness as an investment destination remains robust, given the size and scale of operations it has to offer to global companies, abundant skilled talent pool, and prowess in technology and innovation. The industrial manufacturing sector has experienced a significant boost, attracting global technology giants like Apple eager to expand their supplier networks within India. ... https://www.india-briefing.com/news/indias-economy-in-2023-a-year-end-review-30561.html/

Express your opinion on the Poll. Thanks.

I am counting on them to make well timed trades to take advantage of volatility and doing so only because they are likely and only to upgrade 200/year or 1000 over 4 to 5 years. Otherwise, you may still get about 160 per year without them. I like to know what will you buy instead if you sell FFH. I cannot see any better alternative in the whole market other than a more conservative Berkshire hold. When you got in before the recent surge, you actually did that based on a lot of optimism and that appears good in the rear view mirror. You nailed the timing. However, to buy now is more rational than it was then due to better visibility. The biggest risk I see is regulatory if they come to squeeze the whole sector.

International Insurers Seize Opportunities to Expand in India https://finance.yahoo.com/news/best-commentary-international-insurers-seize-023000911.html [ India’s government increased the FDI cap to 74% from 49% in 2021, and since then several international insurance groups have expanded their minority shares in Indian insurers into controlling positions; most recently, Zurich Insurance Group proposed a USD 487 million investment in Indian insurer Kotak General Insurance. In the Best’s Commentary, "International Insurers Seize Opportunities to Expand in India," AM Best states that high-growth potential of India’s insurance market is an attractive strategic option for global insurance players. ] https://www3.ambest.com/ambv/sales/bwpurchase.aspx?record_code=339177

I am counting on at least one large realized gain or monetization or revaluation per year in guessing 200/year. 1. Digit IPO is in the pipeline 2. BIAL IPO is in the pipeline 3. New items will get added in the pipeline with their opportunism 4. They buy a small portion of an existing asset that revalues it upwards 5. They sell a small portion of an existing asset that revalues it upwards 6. They sell some unknown/insignificant position for an significant/outsized valuation 7. They sell some debt earning high interest for large gain when interest rates lower 8. Some of their distressed assets like BB or FDGE produce unexpected value 9. Fairfax India gets revalued to book value for whatever turn of events

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

IMF Staff Country Reports https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/12/18/India-2023-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-542605 " STAFF APPRAISAL 57. India’s strong economic performance, supported by macroeconomic and financial stability, is expected to continue with balanced risks. India is today one of the fastest growing economies globally, with projected growth at 6.3 percent. Headline inflation is expected to gradually decline towards the target although it has been volatile due to food price shocks. The economy has potential to grow faster and more sustainably if a comprehensive structural reform agenda is implemented. Risks are balanced, with a global growth slowdown and adverse weather shocks most salient on the downside, and more resilient consumption and private investment on the upside. " IND2023.pdf

Thank you for your great analysis. Net earnings in Q3 was over a billion. Income in Q4 is likely to be higher in each of Insurance, Interest and Investments. This makes me guess Q4 earnings to be over 1.5 billion after adding ~300mm for GIG. Thus earnings per share in Q4 could be about 65/share taking the 2023 total to 185/share. Looking forward to annual earnings of about 200/share to get normalized over the coming years. Certainly, there will be lumpiness but how about we project 1000/share of earnings over five year periods. This fits in well as quick mental model to get a double every 5 years and you are getting annual return of 15%.

With regards to whether they will book the GIG gain in Q4, they should or should not? Thanks.

Guessing Q4 income to be over 1.5 billion.

Canadian veteran journalist Terry Milewski has a full book on this issue. https://archive.org/details/blood-for-blood_202107/page/n3/mode/2up He joins Punit Sahani in this insightful exposure how "Khalistanis Lie Shamelessly".

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/leads-soon-on-india-consulate-attack-fbi-chief-christopher-wray-told-delhi-sources-4662505 [ Visiting Federal Bureau of Investigation or FBI Director Christopher Wray has assured India that the US is probing attack on the Indian Consulate in San Francisco "aggressively" and would be able to share "credible" leads soon, sources said. Mr Wray met National Investigation Agency Director Dinkar Gupta on second day of his visit on Tuesday. In March, a group of Khalistan supporters attacked and damaged the Indian Consulate. It was again attacked in July. The NIA team had visited San Francisco in August and returned with some leads. The meeting between the investigating agency chiefs comes on the heels of Washington's allegations about an Indian link to a foiled plot to kill Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on American soil. ] https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-12-12/india-requests-fbi-to-share-intel-on-sikh-separatists-source [ The issue of what New Delhi says are Sikh separatists operating against India from U.S. soil was discussed in "greater detail by a team of internal security officials from both countries", the official said. "India has requested the U.S. officials to share inputs on suspected individuals who have in recent years been recruited and embedded in the separatist movement," the official said. The NIA said in a statement on Tuesday that Wray met NIA Director General Dinkar Gupta and held discussions on issues including "the acts and activities of Terrorist-Organised Criminal Networks, ongoing investigations in the US in the attack on the Indian consulate in San Francisco, investigations of cyber-terror and cyber-crimes of various kinds." ]

https://www.msn.com/en-in/sports/cricket/virat-kohli-most-searched-cricketer-of-all-time-as-google-completes-25-years/ar-AA1ln9Qy Virat Kohli most searched cricketer of all time as Google completes 25 years He is the brand ambassador of Digit Insurance in India. He and his celebrity wife are also personally invested in company. https://www.facebook.com/virat.kohli/videos/being-digit-general-insurance-brand-ambassador-customer-and-investor-im-proud-to/1687471911593420/

Foreigners Turn Bullish on India Stock Futures After Modi’s Wins (Bloomberg) Thu, December 7, 2023 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/foreigners-turn-bullish-india-stock-064019496.html " Stocks extended gains to fresh record highs this week, as the local election results are seen diminishing risk of political upheaval in national polls next year. The NSE Nifty 50 Index is up 16% so far this year, outperforming most Asian peers as investors bet on strong earnings growth and improvement in domestic consumption as well as the likelihood of Modi winning a third term. "

Not local, she is international with more than a million subscribers. She talks based of facts and figures instead of bias and prejudice.

I just like to quote this from the 2022 letter: "This rapid growth in the last five years focused on underwriting profit and not reaching for yield. This has resulted in our expected future annual operating income of more than $3.0 billion: $1.5 billion from interest and dividend income, more than $1.0 billion in underwriting profit and more than $0.5 billion profit from non-insurance companies (associates and consolidated investments), resulting in Fairfax earning approximately $100 per share even without any potential gains on our stock positions! " With expected increases in interest income and from investments, we may upgrade the annual estimate to 4 billion. Dividing this by the current market cap we get a P/E of 5.5. Nothing too speculative, this is a conservative scenario.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/indictment-india-canada-gupta-nijjar-1.7045174 [ Arindam Bagchi, spokesperson for India's external affairs ministry, said the country has set up a high-level inquiry in response to the indictment. "As regards the case against an individual that has been filed in a U.S. court, allegedly linking him to an Indian official, this is a matter of concern. We have said, and let me reiterate, that this is also contrary to government policy," he said Thursday morning. Bagchi took a tougher stance on Canada's allegations. "Insofar as Canada is concerned, we have said that they have consistently given space to anti-India extremists and violence. And that is at the heart of the issue," he said. "We have also seen interference by Canadian diplomats in our internal affairs. This is obviously unacceptable." ]

Not hurt about losing the semifinals or finals. I am unbiased and see the trophies as insignificant images of vanity. Do you realize what a rare feat of achievement is to be #1 on all 3 formats at the same time? Human attitude displayed by you guys totally explains the discounted share price of Fairfax. The company is firing on all cylinders and the people have their focus on where they went wrong like Blackberry.