Intelligent_Investor

Fiber buildout makes a lot of sense for large telcos trying to replace copper networks to reduce opex, as you are trading a high upfront cost for lower run rate opex, which only really pays off if you have a large enough scale. Not sure how the economics shake out for smaller players

Can you do custom metrics or average over a certain time period on TIKR

Over a short term on pure valuation I think there is a good chance small caps can beat the Mag 7, but long term its very hard to beat a capital light business that can compound equity at 20%+ for over a decade

Tbh churning CC rewards is probably higher ROI given there are methods you can float the spend

Its very rare, most screens just turn up pages and pages of shitcos. Computers have really arbed the shit out of certain types of stocks

Its kinda hard to find cheap growth-ish stocks unless you are willing to back up the truck when megacaps get wrecked for some reason. You could've bought META, GOOGL, and AMZN for $90/share or less just a year ago and Chinese tech can still be had for less than 10x FCF. I've had quite good performance finding low growth, but high quality small to mid caps and buying them dirt cheap. Signet jewelers was trading for around 5x normalized FCF just a few months ago, but they aren't really a growth stock.

Close to $1k USD

I see. I've seen small caps in the 100M-200M range with options, so I assumed it would be possible to find something a bit under 100M with options, but I guess that might be very rare

I feel like with true nanocaps that are undervalued the play is probably LEAPS, because most are either value traps or multibaggers, so the end payout even if owning the common stock looks a lot like an option payout anyways. The option leverage will in turn probably turn a 5x return into a 50 bagger

Probably gonna start selling my position in SIG if they hit the 105-110 range again. I was out of the country when they got to 107 last month. 105-110 is close enough to fair value that it won't be worth trying to squeeze out a few more bucks per share, so I'll take profits at that range

I love Warren as much as anyone, but Charlie was the guy that I really connected with and modeled my investing after. Rest in peace Charlie, your legacy will live on in the thousands of value investors you inspired

I think they should do away with special treatment of LT cap gains for people with a net worth over a certain threshold.

Starting to liquidate mine and rolling into short term treasuries

GGLL and AMZU. Went long 1.5x etfs on GOOGL and AMZN when they were trading in the 80s and low 90s, taking profit now on the leveraged positions, but not selling actual GOOGL and AMZN shares

I like using a reverse DCF to sanity check my assumptions.

That's because Chinese index funds for a long time were very heavy on shitty, low margin, commoditized industrial businesses or cyclicals that aren't conducive to buy and hold. If you invested in consumer/tech you would've made a lot of money over the past several decades. Buffett and Munger have both made a killing in China picking individual stocks, and I think that's the way to go with China, although the indices are probably cheap enough now that forward returns are decent.

Pentagon saying they don't believe the plane was shot down...looks like initial reports of a missile may be inaccurate/misinformation

20 year GSEs at 6%, but at that holding period I would want equity like returns.

The major catalyst is western economies slowing, thus slowing their exports and causing prices at the factories to fall (oversupply of stuff that isn't being bought by the west due to economic issues). China's consumer spending isn't that bad, but exports are falling as the US and other western countries grapple with economic strain. China will likely not be a purely consumption based economy anytime soon, because culturally the Chinese are savers/hoarders, and have been for thousands of years. This is also why western style economic stimulus doesn't work as well in China vs the US. In the US where the average American spends most of his money, direct stimulus actually flows into the economy, in China it flows into bank savings/real estate investments/housing, not the general economy and thus has much less impact.

Assuming that we are the only intelligent life out there is arrogant because you are assuming we are the ultimate outlier: there are over 200 billion stars in the Milky Way and there are over 200 billion galaxies in the known universe. That is 40 sextillion stars, if the possibility of life is even one in one trillion, then there are still over 40 billion star systems out there with life. The scale of the universe is so large that the probability of life would need to be so miniscule that we would have needed to overcome a greater than 1 in 40 sextillion chance for us to be the only life ever. If assuming we or our planet is special enough to overcome those odds isn't arrogant, then I don't know what is

I think 2 things can both be true: we are not the only intelligent beings in the universe (I think it would be extremely arrogant to assume we are the only intelligent species in all of time and space), and that even if 1) is true, we have never been visited by them and the "UFO" sightings are other phenomenon

Yeah the illiquidity would be a problem. I don't think Berkshire minds being most of the volume if there is high liquidity. IIRC Charlie stated that when they were buying Coke, they bought almost all the daily volume for months.

As they say: "The fastest way to become a millionaire is to be a billionaire and invest in NFTs"

Its because FFH is too damn small for Berkshire. A 10% stake in FFH is less than $2B, even if FFH doubles, that barely even moves the needle given Berkshire's current size

The other thing to take into account is that for many top companies that have a large net cash position where that net cash position is growing, P/E is misleading because it is generally overstated relative to EV/FCF simply due to the fact that the large net cash position inflates market cap. So you might see one of these companies with a P/E of 35 but an EV/FCF of 22.