Luke

China is not communist country, Munger praised china multiple times for what they have done, i dont see any reason why we cant be impressed by the rapid growth and development. I cant speak the language, its also not my culture, i dont know anyone there: so of course i prefer to live in my home country where i grew up. I dont say the west is awful and china is great. Both have problems, what i disagree is about the framing of china. 1. Common currency planned 2. Common communication systems planned 3. Common institutions matching IMF 4. Common payment system planned The BRICS are considered the foremost geopolitical rival to the G7 bloc of leading advanced economies,[1] announcing competing initiatives such as the New Development Bank, the Contingent Reserve Arrangement, the BRICS payment system, the BRICS Joint Statistical Publication and the BRICS basket reserve currency. Since 2022, the group has sought to expand membership, with several developing countries expressing interest in joining.[8] Ahead of the BRICS summit, South Africa's Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said that there are 12 countries interested in joining the initiative. Of the 12, she mentioned 7 countries specifically, namely Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Algeria, Argentina, Mexico and Nigeria. On 15 July, the first day of the BRICS sixth summit in Fortaleza, Brazil, the group of emerging economies signed the long-anticipated document to create the US$100 billion New Development Bank (formerly known as the "BRICS Development Bank") and a reserve currency pool worth over another US$100 billion. Documents on cooperation between BRICS export credit agencies and an agreement of cooperation on innovation were also inked Since 2012, the BRICS group of countries have been planning an optical fibre submarine communications cable system to carry telecommunications between the BRICS countries, known as the BRICS Cable.[47] Part of the motivation for the project was the spying of the U.S. National Security Agency on all telecommunications that flowed in and out of United States territory.[48] At the 2015 BRICS summit in Russia, ministers from BRICS nations initiated consultations for a payment system that would be an alternative to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stated in an interview, "The finance ministers and executives of the BRICS central banks are negotiating ... setting up payment systems and moving on to settlements in national currencies. SWIFT or not, in any case we’re talking about ... a global multilateral payment system that would provide greater independence, would create a definite guarantee for BRICS."[102] BRICS countries will likely discuss the feasibility of a new common currency or similar at the 2023 BRICS summit in South Africa.[105] Fair and easier international trade as well as a major reduction in costs of transactions would be some of the reasons why the countries could forge a currency union, according to Mikatekiso Kubayi, a BRICS specialist. The birthrate was similar to the US just a few years ago, i am sure it will recover and they will implement some incentives that will work. Fearmongering, there are many many people in china that like their home and live in very reasonable wealth in the big cities. Dont forget the increase in racism against Chinese since trump. What data do you base this on? https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11192-022-04291-z China publishes more top 1% cited scientific papers globally than any other country. Their are leading in many areas and are catching up in many others. If you play the mao card than one can easily play the genocide against indigenous populations card in the US, or how the US treated blacks and their slaves. Whats the point? They almost doubled GDP, developed leading positions in many areas, started investments all over the world to engage in trade relationships. Helped building the BRICS community that has HALF the worlds population. BRICSs Grows GDP on average of 4.3%. Why slander them? The US media might say that China is burning bridges but i am sure they are building many more every day all over the world. Even macron realized that you cant just ignore china.

Literally true about China too. I am not justifying the actions of killing millions of people in the great leap forward. This is about an economic war between two states that had at least an equally ugly history. And i never justified concentration camps. There is no reason why they should accept it of course, but they are in a position because they did the exact same thing, and now IP of course is very important to them. Hypocritical from a geopolitical standpoint.

I just dont buy into all this absolute hate against the chinese government, how bad they are, how evil they are, that its a mafia state. There are many new people in the party and the country completely changed. Was Mao the worst that has happened to China? Probably. Again: We can say the same about the US, massive genocide against indigenous population, appalling slavery of blacks, brutal labor fight history and some of the most evil people running the country... I dont know exactly how the leadership in china decided to change its strategy and change their system and which specific communication happened with the US decades ago. But to give the government there 0 credit is just not worthy. Same is true for the US, many great things to mention. The US does not need to steal much patents (although there are cases of course) because it is at the top. “The message we are sending to China today is, Do as I say, not as I did,′ ” said Peter Andreas, professor at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs. “The fact of the matter is that the U.S. was the world’s hotbed of intellectual property theft.” Having imposed tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods, the Trump administration is trying to force Beijing to abandon what it calls its brass-knuckles drive to exploit American technology to speed its own economic modernization. The administration alleges — and many China watchers agree — that Beijing steals trade secrets and coerces U.S. companies to hand them over as the price of admission to the vast Chinese market. More than two centuries ago, the young United States, an agrarian backwater lacking in skilled workers, held a different view of other nations’ trade secrets: They were, it seemed, up for grabs. In 2012, having surveyed the sordid history of U.S. industrial espionage, the journal Foreign Policy called America “the China of the 19th century. “Only after becoming the leading industrial power did it become a champion of intellectual-property protections,” said Andreas, author of “Smuggler Nation: How Illicit Trade Made America.” Hamilton, determined to transform America into an industrial power, argued in 1791 that the United States needed “to procure all such machines as are known in any part of Europe.” Even so, Ben-Atar doubts that the U.S. can effectively keep its technology from slipping away. “The history of trying to restrict the movement of technology is the history of failure,” he said. In the 13th century, he noted, the Italian city-state of Venice sought to protect its glass-making industry by isolating its artisans on the island of Murano. Venice’s secrets got out anyway. Andreas doesn’t object to the U.S. trying to combat Chinese piracy. But “the finger-pointing and righteous indignation,” he said, “should be tempered by a historical reality check.” https://apnews.com/article/north-america-us-news-ap-top-news-theft-international-news-b40414d22f2248428ce11ff36b88dc53

Also, whats so bad about admiring something of china. Thats classical bloc thinking. Whats not impressive of this:

Reality is that these superpowers are in a war and both sides have massive problems in their countries. You could make many arguments like these about politicians and capital in the US. They stole many to get where they are now. Since their multinationals pretty much control the largest part of the world economy they dont need to do much, US controls the EU, Japan etc. Yes and that is a huge problem. It shows that there is much suffering in the US and the government doesn't give a fuck in many instances. Same with the CCP and their concentration camps. If you talk about it you go into prison or have to go to Russia (snowden) How ridiculous the campaign financing system is and how decadent both parties have become is no news. China has the CCP yes, better than having the CIA trying to install a maniac dictator that does what the US tells him: https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v23/d1#:~:text=In August 1960%2C the U.S.,provided advice and financial subsidies. In August 1960, the U.S. Government launched a covert political program in the Congo lasting almost 7 years, initially aimed at eliminating Lumumba from power and replacing him with a more moderate, pro-Western leader. The U.S. Government provided advice and financial subsidies. At the same time, based on authorization from President Eisenhower’s statements at an NSC meeting on August 18, 1960, discussions began to develop highly sensitive, tightly-held plans to assassinate Lumumba. After Lumumba’s death at the hands of Congolese rivals in January 1961, the U.S. Government authorized the provision of paramilitary and air support to the new Congolese Government. We will see what happens:

1. US cant stop the belt and road initiative, Israel->China owns half the port. China is slowly steadily moving, investments, no violence. US cant do anything and gets hysteric. 2. ,,United States is collapsing from within, bridges are collapsing, subway doesnt work, nothing works, the whole system doesnt work, so we need spending to rebuilt spending. Finally congress got together to get a bill for infrastructure, not because the united states needs bridges but because they have to OUTCOMPETE china. Its the china competition bill. It shows, when the godfather gets in trouble, he goes crazy,, Which Side am i on? On chinas side? There are many things to criticize in china and they are not a good guy either, i have said that before. Absurd is a synonym for harebrained, ludicrous, preposterous. Its absolutely appalling. No arguments but only trying to push me into some communist corner...disappointing. Its not allowed to piss on the underfunded US infrastructure and their massively over funded military infrastructure? That tells you miles about what the US is:

+1 well said!

We still invest all over the world, at least many other investors do. Many own businesses in China, Berkshire, Munger, Guy Spier, Pabrai, Li Lu. I think with a very long horizon and a strong stomache, there is a lot of money still to be made in China. Their growth potential is gigantic. India is another one of these markets that have massive growth ahead, where finding a spawner at a fair price might give great returns too.

I am not on anybodys side, i am just trying to look at the situation from a factual point of view. Its not only guantanamo, as @Spekulatius pointed out there is a huge part of the US population that is absolutely wrecked. Black males in Harlem are having the same or worse mortality rates than in Bangladesh. Appalling poverty. This goes on and on with War Crimes in Yugoslavia supported by the US, War crimes against Indonesian population, supporting dictators to prevent reorganization of markets. China has their reeducation camps and its appalling, that does not make them a mafia state though. There is evidence about these technology transfers and thats unfair from the citizens involved. But we also have to differentiated between a stealing private sector and a stealing government (which also does this). But again, look at internal US affairs, what kind of information they control, the CIA etc. All i hear though is that China is this evil devil but nobody looks at the US. Its hypocrisy. Western markets have been largely open because China could not, until very recently, compete. As you are seeing now, when the threat of disruption comes up, the markets are getting closed. With all sort of fear that the government might get data etc...how much data does Meta collect from germany? Why is the US controlling the phone of our chancellor? How much intervention was with Twitter by the state? Again: Hypocrisy India is still much poorer compared to China, and they are very docile till now. Will be interesting to see when India moves closer to China and what the US does then. China is not a ,,good guy,, either, i agree that some SEA countries remilitarise against a growing influence of china. I am not on Chinas Side but the media coverage is biased towards the west.

What has changed? Nothin that wasnt there 4 years ago. Same party, same rules. Xi still there. China has not left the market system, just look at some of the last earnings calls. Tencent still doing very fine, demand is strong.

China in 1949 is worlds apart from China in 2023. If Chinas economy goes to 0 that means 1/5 of the population gone including the second biggest economy on the planet...

Also from his talk in 2015, good reminder: I believe China is at interim stage between Civilization 2.0 and Civilization 3.0. Let’s call it Civilization 2.5. China has come a long way but still has a long road ahead. Therefore, I think there is a high probability that China will continue on the main track of Civilization 3.0, as the cost of deviation is very high. If you have a good understanding of China’s culture, people and history, you will agree that China will forge forward. This is particularly the case now that you have a better understanding of the essence of modern civilization. There is almost no chance of China leaving the common market, and the probability of China changing its market rules is also very small. Thus, it is highly probable that, in the next 2 to 3 decades, China will remain in the global market system, and adhere to free market principles, in addition to promoting science & technology development. There is a high probability that China’s economy will be on the main track of Civilization 3.0. Besides, we know the course of Civilization 3.0 has little to do with political and cultural factors, and a lot to do with science & technology, as well as the free market. This is its true essence. This is also the biggest misunderstanding about China many investors have, particularly those from the West. If China is to stay the course of Civilization 3.0, and adhere to the free market economy + modern science & technology, her returns on main classes of assets (stocks, cash etc.) will track the trends of the mature market economies in the past 300 years. Her economy will continue to grow cumulatively accompanied by inflation. Stocks will continue to outperform other classes of assets. The philosophy of value investing is the right way and main path in China as it is in the US. Value investing will provide sustained, stable, safer and more reliable returns for her investors. This is why I believe value investing can be realized in China.

Li Lu wrote this in 2019 November about China btw, i just read through his website: 家为这一阶段的经济政策，尤其是货币政策留下了丰富的参照经验。只要政策制定者能够 认清目前自身所处的阶段，做出适当的调整，就有可能充分释放黄金发展期巨大的经济增 长潜力。中国未来前途依然可期 Experts have left a wealth of reference experience for economic policy at this stage, especially monetary policy. As long as policymakers can recognize the current stage of the economy and make appropriate adjustments, it is possible to fully release the huge economic growth during the golden development period. China's future is still promising Sad he doesnt publish more!

I agree that these camps in China are absurd.

One example is Adel Noori, a Chinese Uyghur and dissident who had been sold to the US by Pakistani bounty hunters.[146] Top DoD officials often referred to these prisoners as the "worst of the worst", but a 2003 memo by then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said "We need to stop populating Guantanamo Bay (GTMO) with low-level enemy combatants... GTMO needs to serve as an [redacted] not a prison for Afghanistan."[147] The Center for Policy and Research's 2006 report, based on DoD released data, found that most detainees were low-level offenders who were not affiliated with organizations on U.S. terrorist lists. Also questionable how much national security was behind this. Many have been tortured. In 2010, Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, a former aide to Secretary of State Colin Powell, stated in an affidavit that top U.S. officials, including President George W. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, had known that the majority of the detainees initially sent to Guantánamo were innocent, but that the detainees had been kept there for reasons of political expedience.

New York Subway:

Shenzen:

Also, to say China is this parasite Mafia state is just unjust to how much the brought prosperity to chinese citizens. They are traveling the world, have high living standards in the coastal cities. Just to show the US trophy city NY subway vs Shenzen metro:

China missed the Industrial Revolution completely and would have been behind FOREVER (as are african countries) without adopting the closed off state directed market system. It would NEVER have been possible to get where they are without an authoritarian regime that can lead long term. In the early industrial revolution it was clear that those who control the markets have immense power and the US came out on top after WW2 because Europe was heavily impacted by Hitler. China is basically doing now what the US did, funding infrastructure in poor eastern countries, trying to build factories there, implement them in THEIR market system etc. US hates it because thats what they used to do.

I am not sure that the US is completely unguilty here. Julian Assange and Snowden come to mind. We had Guantanamo Bay Detention Camps in the US where the exact Uyghurs that are in education camps in China today were tortured in US prisons. Not in the same size as in China but we could find problems in both countries. Does not make them mafia states IMO. The West wanted to make business in china and access to their markets, China did its own economic policies to their own benefit. States funding businesses is not something bad per se, as i said TSMC was statebacked, Airbus i believe was also statebacked. You cant just spawn some businesses without governments and the only way to bring up ones own local industries is to close it off to some degree. Otherwise we would have US multinationals in China and no Baba, Tencent, Baidu etc. Again, the US is only the leading power of the world because of these exact practices. Stealing textile manufacturing technology from Britain where the industrial revolution started. Even worse, to quote: ,,The US would never have had a steel industry. Again same reason. British steel was way superior. One of the reasons is because they were stealing Indian techniques. British engineers were going to India to learn about steel-making well into the 19th century. Britain ran the country by force, so they could take what they knew. And they develop a steel industry. And the US imposed extremely high tariffs, also massive government involvement, through the military system as usual. And the US developed a steel industry. And so it continues. Right up to the present. Furthermore that’s true of every single developed society. That’s one of the best known truths of economic history. The only countries that developed are the ones that pursued these techniques. The ones that weren’t able… There were countries that were forced to adopt “free trade” and “liberalization”: the colonies, and they got destroyed. And the divide between the first and the third world is really since the 18th century. It wasn’t very much in the 18th century, and it’s very sharply along these lines. Well, that’s what the intellectual property rights are for. In fact there’s a name for it in economic history. Friedrich List, famous German political economist in the 19th century, who was actually borrowing from Andrew Hamilton, called it “kicking away the ladder”. First you use state power and violence to develop, then you kick away those procedures so that other people can’t do it. Regarding Russia and China @Spekulatius Ill quote something from Rob Vinalls Half year letters with which i agreed: What has changed is that today, there are only two superpowers – the US and China. Such a tectonic shift happens perhaps just once a century. Barring radical regime change in Moscow, Russia is likely to be closed off from the Western economy for at least a generation. This leaves China as the only game left in town for Russia and relegates Russia to little more than a vassal state. The clear winner is China. It will gain privileged access to Russia’s raw materials and will be the sole source for essential manufactures such as high-end electronics – almost becoming a monopolist and a monopsonist vis-à-vis Russia. From a geopolitical standpoint, it is a disaster for Russia and a boon for China. Some of you have voiced concern that China will enter the Ukraine conflict by providing military support to Russia. I doubt this will happen. China already has Russia where it wants it and has little to gain by deepening the relationship further. Moreover, China will be keen not to unnecessarily antagonise the West given the importance of Western export markets to its economy. At a high level, I doubt very much that China was informed of Putin’s intention to invade Ukraine or that it would have approved the invasion had it been. Sovereignty is a core value in China given that its borders were constantly encroached upon over the centuries, the motivating factor behind the country’s most famous landmark: The Great Wall of China.

@DinarI am also trying to take a contrarian perspective here. I am a concerned citizen from germany trying to look a bit deeper behind geopolitics than the normal rethoric I also really appreciate any pushback, i am just trying to stimulate the discussion with throwing in some different perspectives.

Never said it was not from China. But saying they unleashed it is also not proven completely. How in your opinion is China supporting Russia in their War in Ukraine?

As of now attacking Taiwan will kill the global economy and will cause a depression and havoc for probably 10years+. It will also kill chinas own economy since they depend on TSMC a lot. If China gets cut off this will kill the global market even more, plenty of reason more to avoid the SP 500 if you think thats realistic. Agree with apple, their earnings will be affected for many many years to rebuild and reorganize the supply chains. The Cayman holdings have been around for 20 years+, its really the last thing i worry about to be honest.

The reason why the west now sees this increased incompatibility is because they are losing the positions they previously had, china is not a country where one can install factories or products, they are increasing their footprint everywhere, industries are competitive and even better than western peers (electric vehicles). They innovate way faster than europe for the most part, industries are close to each other. What the US calls economic War is just a China that can compete and even outcompete western peers. Goodbye Germany with their car dominance, Chinas EVs are top notch (Buffett and Berkshire know it). The export bans of equipment is just to prevent china developing to hope the current world order can be hold up. Imagine a China that is let free and can actually develop their presence over asia... In China the CCP controls everything, in the US its Capital. To say there is no rule of law is a stretch IMO. You do have individual rights but in some areas they are heavily restricted. China is not a mafia state that just throws citizens into prison without any reason. Businesses exist to serve the CCPs goals (which benefit citizens in china) which have been laid out pretty clearly at the 20th congress. Its a one party state so obviously foreign interests are CCP interests. As US foreign interests are there to serve the US parties. Yep, thats a problem! Thanks a lot for sharing viking and pushing back in discussion, video is on my watchlist!

Ill try to take chinas viewpoint from here: That's not proven and speculation to be fair. They did not ,,unleashed,, it, at least there is no 100% hard evidence for it. I posted in the china thread that the US would never be in the position it is now without intellectual property theft. It is very true that Chinese try to get access to industries and try to copy existing technology to increase their own exports and wealth. On the other hand one can have a debate about IP and how legitimate current IP legislation is. This could perhaps explain the view of china: ,,The World Trade Organization proposed new, enhanced intellectual property rights, patent rights, which means monopoly pricing rights, far beyond anything that existed in the past. In fact they are not only designed to maximize monopoly pricing, and profit, but also to prevent development. That’s rather crucial. WTO rules introduced product patents. Used to be you could patent a process, but not the product. Which means if some smart guy could figure out a better way of doing it, he could do it. They want to block that. It’s important to block development and progress, in order to ensure monopoly rights. So they now have product patents,, It was the only way for china to get where they are now with state directed economic policies that actively interfere in industry, cut off foreign markets, support local industry etc. Otherwise they would still just be a US manufacturing Hub of above described militarized monopolies. Also: Some industries just cant be spawned by itself, TSMC was state backed, Airplane production was partly state backed. Also not fair to say. So you suggest to completely cut contact with 1.5b people and the second biggest economy in the world?