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Luke

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Everything posted by Luke

  1. Haha yeah, saw that one going down. I'm still only nibbling.
  2. Thanks for sharing, good you found some fountain of refreshing views on today's politics. I continue to enjoy Sahra Wagenknecht for quality alternative viewpoints regarding Ukraine, Covid etc. Hated and loved by many in our country
  3. Its scandalous, was such a severe attack on the economy and its citizens, a shame it went so much under the rug. Also hilarious how collectively everybody here thinks their government doesnt know what its doing and that the people are incompetent. The hierarchies are corrupted! True for the US, Germany, Canada, doesnt matter which country.
  4. Luke

    China

    Yeah...PDD is sketchy for sure. Would never make it a large position, numbers look great, if they are real.
  5. Analyst estimates are at 1.7b earnings in 2025. With a 20x multiple thats more than 50% gain from here and one can still stay for the compounding over time.
  6. I have owned it for a couple of months with a starter position, down 30% from where I bought. Building up the position, think it's a great business with decent management. Regarding regulations, I think unregulated will either stay unregulated for some time or morph into regulated markets. Business is still growing revenues 30% QoQ with increasing margins and trades at 20x earnings. Onlinecasino market continues to grow, digitalization/VR tailwinds etc. Regarding entain: “It appears a lot of the weakness is driven by sporting results, which should normalise over time.” Jette Nygaard-Andersen, Entain’s chief executive, stressed that the gambling operator “[continued] to see good underlying growth in our online business” as well as strong full-year earnings “despite softer than expected revenue growth in Q3 and the ongoing roll-out of industry-leading safer gambling measures”. https://www.ft.com/content/a0b32ffe-b602-4f84-b787-cecadb204bab Industry is hated, otherwise it wouldn't trade at 20x earnings at that growth.
  7. Luke

    China

    Very interesting research, and thanks for sharing! Quite sad for China, would have been interesting to see how they compare to the more developed asian countries like korea, japan, taiwan but thailand, indonesia and malaysia doesnt look much different.
  8. Totally matters on prices paid. If you look at the yearly PE ratio and compare that with the following 10 year return, 26x earnings will always look ugly compared to 15x earnings entry price. Now couple that with less great tailwinds, inflation, high debt, high political turmoil, geopolitical tensions and id not be a happy buyer of the index as of today. But i also dont need to buy the index because i am still able to find good businesses that will generate good returns. Would i recommend family and friends to put a lot of money into the index today? Probably not.
  9. Hahaha, i dont even do that anymore. I also defended her about the 7000€ a month hair stylist budget but whenever i hear her talk with that broken english, harming relations with the biggest trading partners, i get a crisis. Its great to steam yes
  10. Sadly, we have really the most incompetent people in our government, can't be more dissatisfied with our foreign minister that tries everything to make German relations with other countries more difficult and continues to escalate tensions to higher and higher levels.
  11. Where did i read or believed russian propaganda? I sent you an article by one of the biggest respected newspaper agencies that talks about the absolute horrific moves by the ukrainian government picking up young men to force them killing themselves in this war. They dont even want to but are forced! (same as in russa btw). I dont believe everything the russians say but i also dont blindly copy the "western party line". "canvassed the views of 2,000 people on Sept. 7-13", conducted by the country that is fighting this war and has strong interests in all the weapons they can get...you tell me how reliable that is to ask 2000 people.... Its is simple: Ukraine has different interests than we do and thats a very important point of the debate. Selensky doesnt want deescalation. What does that have to do with anything? This is not our war to begin with so there should no finger pointing to begin with. Yes, there should have never been any discussion at all about ukraine with european union/nato etc but that doesnt make it smart to give ukraine all these weapons now and escalate the situation further together. Yes, same!
  12. "Fighting is done by the willing force of Ukrainians, supported by 90% of its population". Where do you have the data from to make these conclusions? As far as I am aware, they are FORCING men to kill or damage themselves for this war. (https://www.zeit.de/zeit-magazin/leben/2022-03/ukraine-russland-krieg-maenner-widerstand-flucht). They are picking up men straight from the streets, forcing them to fight, the exact thing Russia is doing to their citizens. Are the 90% of the population who are for the war safe in germany and don't have to fight? (women). How are they now doing research about the state of this country when there is maximum chaos? Why should Germans bear more of the financial burden than say other European countries? Top 10% of taxpayers already payed 5000€ per person last year if you calculate current costs for this war. Russia has nuclear weapons, ukraine wont win and we also wont win a nuclear war. We should stop sending all these weapons to an aggressive Ukrainian nationalist leader and let russia and ukraine figure it out. Everything is so damn well orchestrated that as a passive spectator you can not not cheer for ukraine, of course you only see the heroic moves from ukraine and the evil moves from putin and its soldiers.
  13. Luke

    China

    Micheal Burry posted this article once on his twitter, interesting read: "An ascendant China seems eerily similar to the Ottomans. Beijing believes that the United States is decadent, undeserving of its affluence, living beyond its means on the fumes of the past - and very soon vulnerable enough to challenge openly. Left and Right seem to hate each other more than they do their common enemies. Like the Byzantines, Americans gave up defending their own borders, and simply shrugged as millions overran them as they pleased. Our once iconic downtowns, like end-stage Constantinople before the fall, are now dirty, half-deserted, dangerous, and dysfunctional. America prints rather than makes money, as its banks totter near bankruptcy. Americans similarly believe they are invincible without ensuring in reality that they are. Our military is more worried about being "woke" than deadly." https://townhall.com/columnists/victordavishanson/2023/03/16/are-we-the-byzantines-n2620664
  14. "If such information were available, it would be evident must be kept secret because it contains security-relevant information include, which is subject to the confidentiality of treatment foreign intelligence services to the German intelligence services were forwarded. A disclosure of information that is according to the Rules of “third party rule” were obtained would be considered a disruption of the mutual basis of trust and would have one severe impairment of the participation of the federal intelligence services in the international exchange of knowledge. A possible Access by unauthorized persons would have significant disadvantages Impact on the trusting cooperation between the Federal intelligence services with foreign intelligence services have. Dignity as a consequence of a loss of trust Information from foreign bodies is omitted or essential decline, there would be significant information gaps with negative ones Consequences for the accuracy of the depiction of the security situation the Federal Republic of Germany and with regard to protection German interests abroad. A disclosure of the information would also enable further clarification of secret service activities and against the Federal Republic of Germany make it considerably more difficult. The The requested information therefore affects those in need of protection Secrecy interests that protect the welfare of the state parliamentary right to information prevails and the right to ask questions MPs exceptionally opposed to the interest in secrecy must take a back seat to the federal government."
  15. Request: https://www.bundestag.de/presse/hib/kurzmeldungen-921048 The left-wing faction continues to see a great need for clarification regarding the attacks on the Nord Stream 2 and Nord Stream 1 pipelines on September 26, 2022. In a small question (20/4303), the MPs want to know, among other things, how the federal government can respond to legal and, specifically, international law criteria, attacks by, in the opinion of the questioners, state actors on infrastructure in international waters, some of which are owned by German companies through shareholder ownership evaluate and what knowledge the federal government has so far about the timing and technical sequence of the incidents and the damage caused. We ask the Federal Government: 1. How does the Federal Government assess attacks by, in the opinion of the questioners, state actors on infrastructure in international waters, some of which are owned by German companies through shareholder ownership, from a legal and especially international law perspective? 2. What knowledge does the federal government have so far about the timing and technical sequence of the incidents on the two double strands of the Nord Stream 2 and Nord Stream 1 pipelines? a) When and where did the explosion occur or did the explosions occur on the Nord Stream 2 lines? b) When and where did the explosion occur or did the explosions occur on the Nord Stream 1 lines? c) According to the Federal Government's knowledge, how many explosions or detonated explosive devices are there in total? d) What quantity did the explosions achieve, and according to the Federal Government's findings, what amount of military explosives would be necessary to achieve this effect in the corresponding water depth on the gas pipelines? e) How long is the distance between the explosion sites on the two pipelines? f) How much time does a conventional ship and a submersible each need on average to travel this distance? 3. What findings does the federal government have so far about the damage caused to the two double strands? a) How many of the four individual lines were opened by the explosions? b) How long are the pipelines torn? Reply of the government: “With reference to possible conflicts with the interests of allied states or their secret services, the so-called third-party rule, the federal government refuses to provide any further information. She even refuses to provide the usual information under classified classification or to deposit it with the secret protection office of the German Bundestag. If the government assumes that disclosure of its information could lead to a disruption of mutual trust with allies or impair the protection of German interests abroad, then Parliament must be involved all the more urgently. It is a serious attack on the sovereignty of the Federal Republic. The attack also destroyed infrastructure that was strategically important for the country's energy independence. In this serious situation, MPs must be involved.” The Question to me is how much does the secret service know and how much is told to the public? 2022-10-11_Nordstream_9-489-Nastic.pdf
  16. Really wondering how big the propaganda level in our country is and how much truth there is to what Russia says. I surely do not believe the West to tell its citizens the truth but cant say to which degree. Most likely also impossible to know, party in our Parliament tried to gain further information regarding the bombing of the pipeline but where put off due to "state secrets".
  17. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/13/zelensky-ukraine-war-leaked-documents/ Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has won the trust of Western governments by refusing to use the weapons they provide for attacks inside Russia and prioritizing the targeting of Russian forces inside Ukraine’s borders. But behind closed doors, Ukraine’s leader has proposed going in a more audacious direction — occupying Russian villages to gain leverage over Moscow, bombing a pipeline that transfers Russian oil to Hungary, a NATO member, and privately pining for long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia’s borders, according to classified U.S. intelligence documents detailing his internal communications with top aides and military leaders. They reveal a leader with aggressive instincts that sharply contrast with his public-facing image as the calm and stoic statesman weathering Russia’s brutal onslaught.
  18. Agree with dealraker, @Parsad please keep up this amazing board. How are your Nvidia calls going @brobro777?
  19. Never laughed this hard in a while hahahahahaha, some good promotion for our budlight fans @Gregmal
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