Luke

In China a minority population receives control, imprisonment, reeducation and are suspects without having done anything. In the US, you have neighborhoods filled with poverty (that frankly nobody in the government cares about), racism and institutional violence against blacks etc. They get put into torturous isolation cells in breach of international law for which many politicians vote for. https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2014/07/usa-prisoners-held-extreme-solitary-confinement-breach-international-law/ “You cannot overestimate the devastating impact long periods of solitary confinement can have on the mental and physical well-being of a prisoner. Such harsh treatment is happening as a daily practice in the US, and it is in breach of international law,” said Erika Guevara-Rosas, Amnesty International’s Americas Director. Those are very similar things and we still invest in the US. "Another technique is needed for those that you don’t have any use for, whose jobs you can more easily send out to Mexico. That gives you a superfluous class, and they have to be controlled in another way, sometimes by social cleansing, sometimes by incarceration. So the attention on crime certainly serves a purpose. It’s striking that the U.S. is perhaps the only society in which crime is considered a political issue. Politicians have to take a stand on who’s tougher on crime. In most parts of the world it’s a social problem. It’s not something you fight about at elections." "It’s one thing to read the figures about poverty in India and another thing to walk through the slums in Bombay and see people living in hideous, indescribable poverty. If you walk through downtown Boston you also see appalling poverty. I’ve seen things in New York which are as horrifying as anything I’ve seen in the Third World. But I’d say that there are parts of New York or Boston which are not unlike what you find in the Third World. Black males in Harlem, it was discovered a couple of years ago, have roughly the mortality rate of Bangladesh." Long Story short: Does this matter to me as an investor in the US? ABSOLUTELY NOT You will find horror on both sides, you will find bad things on both sides in history too.

Exactly, you have corruption and abuse on both sides, in the US some black communities are so disregarded and poor, the insane isolation sentences, prisons filled to the max, worker abuse etc. I don't think Chinas Government is great per se, the party developed their country on a speed that is insane and they lifted a lot of people out of poverty, nice! Many regulations I also do approve of. Now what about investing? The CCP and Xi wants China to grow, they want those poor people in the countryside and underdeveloped regions to climb the ladder and get wealthy, they want to be respected worldwide, make up for the century of humiliation. On a per capita basis they are still very much behind of the west, LOTS of development left. Huge and attractive market despite short term problems and also very cheap valuations.

I have posted comparisons to the DAX as an example, it doesn't look that bad and consider that the Hang Seng index is very cheap right now. There have also been many 100x baggers and many investors outperformed hard in china (David Webb).

Well, they think that it somehow strengthens their society at least there are reports about such a motive, but I also don't have any insider information on these camps, information also is limited. People who fled obviously report torture rape etc, it's hugely problematic indeed. I said many times that they do mistakes, some severe ones too.

David Tepper having big positions in China has the same level of significance on an investing level as a guy you know who invests in typewriters? I have to disagree.

Because they can harm societal development, food companies in Mexico as an example, huge obesity problems etc. A movement by doctors pressured the government to install warning labels etc on Coke and Soda. There are many examples and currency is just another one, living in a society together requires individuals to cooperate. I think investing in asia generally requires the knowledge of mentality difference compared to the west, individuals dont matter as much as the collective does. Thats the Jack Ma vs CCP story. This comment was quite nice from VIC and highlights the massive bias some investors have:

To me that makes a lot of sense, economy and state are always intertwined, people and business can't just do whatever they want.

David Tepper doesnt seem to think there is a lot of risk with China, Nvidia with 400m, 400m in Baba, 200m in TSMC, 200m in Baidu, 70m in JD.com, 60m in ASML, KWEB and China Largecap etc...

Great Thread, love bitching about analysts and sleezy investors haha!

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3233143/long-overdue-chinas-new-foreign-state-immunity-law-will-align-it-western-practices?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage

You can not get money out for 6 years? For which reason? What did they tell you?

Excuse me, China has been at the forefront of civilization for thousands of years before they missed the industrial revolution which they amazingly climbed back from, shooting through the roof now.

The USSR was highly inefficient and administration corrupt and useless, Xi/CCP did and still tries to clean a lot of this up which is good IMO. We shall not forget the degree of corruption in the EU/Brussels or in the US. It's a problem also in western democracies. I don't see how they will "outdo" China, what do you mean by that? India has 20% of their population unable to read, a much poorer country but arguably with more growth potential. They can all do well, China has very high university rankings in tons of subjects etc. Yep, that's true, they were always good at attracting talent. And still they are very much dependent and unable to decouple from China. Mutual destruction if they go against china. Yeah, China will continue to make mistakes but they will and can readjust. Don't forget the countless mistakes that also happened in the EU, the corruption with Pfizer and prices paid for the vaccines etc

China is an outlier that made it work wonderfully, so this made me and still makes me think quite much

Hahaha, gladly not! But I see you are left with no arguments and now refer to personal insults

Love him too!!

And also to add, it's an interesting thought experiment to think about how many advantages or disadvantages a democracy has vs a "benevolent" ruler (in this case the CCP) that has long term full control. In Germany there is so little progress because of the blocking of some party that has their own agenda, projects do not get done fast, regulation is lacking, very inefficient government etc.

I dont remember the name of that specific sinologist who covered Xi Jinping but i read that Xi thinks ONLY the CCP can govern china and otherwise they would collapse. Its interesting to think about, the whole structure of the country is setup under CCP rule and trying to install a different system would come with unpredictable instability. I have come more and more to peace with the CCP, the "communist" name is really a left behind of CCP history, I have heard from Frank Sieren that many older chinese people are used to it and it became some sort of heritage. Reality is so far away from communism as it can get.

Can we even talk about "friends" in geopolitics? I only see it as common or uncommon interests, i dont even see Russia and China as Friends, China is just playing their cards that should lead to the result of benefits to China (cheap energy for economy, exports, wanting "stability" in ukraine and russia due to food exports, they wouldnt mind russia taking over ukraine as a whole). I dont think he is playing a "poor" chess game, if you read a bit through what he has done during his time in political positions there are massive amounts of positive evidence incl pushing for privatization for the benefit of the economy. Yes he makes mistakes but its too simple and maybe almost naive to place China or Xi or the CCP in one black and white position. (newspapers like it though because it grabs attention). They are already leading in citations worldwide in science research (massive) and I have quoted the incredibly bad results of US kids in schools, China is leading in math etc and work ethic is hard! (true for most Asian countries, SK, Taiwan etc). Putting off chinas progress in semiconductor production would be way to quick, I am quite convinced they will be competitive in that sector over time. If the western worker pool would be so superior, they wouldnt have come so far ahead in the automobile sector. They really have plenty enough people to do that already.

I could give you many examples in the past where we have seen aggressive attacks by the US during that time frame.

Why would it be a problem for China to build up their army and not for the US? Why does the US have the global single right to have all those bases and rockets stationed everywhere and other countries cant have it?

Hahahaha spek!

Selling some EXOR to add to my CHINA Basket.

Ming Fai is an interesting one, i saw that David Webb already pressured them in 2016 because they where bloated and overcapitalized which still seems to be the case, stock price even cheaper now that it is back then...

Since Fairfax is a big position for me, i am looking forward to further rates raising