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The inflation actually started under Trump and COVID. Pretty much every country saw inflation so it’s wasn’t unique to the US economy . The second stimulus package from Biden was a mistake and made it worse but since even economies that didn’t do a stimulus booster also had inflation, it’s hard to argue that this is the main cause. Also your 20 million illegals umring if Biden’s. Terms are pretty much twice the estimates. The bigger issue for Trump is that the K shaped economy gets more pronounced. Also with the latest increase in inflation, the real buying power of wages started to shrink again. This is particular true for the bottom 50%.

I don't disagree with this, but it's more complicated than just that the purchase price needs to come down. If the purchase price was far higher than the cost of building new homes (including land, site prep, utilities, infrastructure, etc.), then we could just build a ton of new housing stock. In many parts of the country, the purchase price of a home is lower than the all in cost of replacement. I just asked chatGPT about the net increase in the housing stock, and it's currently running 1-1.3 million a year (if chatGPT is to be trusted, and I thought I'd rather take the easy way out rather than dig through Fred) on a housing stock of about 150 million. So well below 1% net increase in the housing stock. I also asked ChatGPT what the population increase has looked like since Trump took office the second time (at which point it slowed down for obvious reasons), and that's supposedly averaged around 0.4%. Another factor, is that single member or single parent households have been exploding over the last several decades, so unless that demographic changes, there are more homes needed per person. Why would the purchase price come down (barring financial or real estate crisis) if there's a structural shortage of homes, we aren't building them fast enough, and the price of building a home is equal to or higher than buying one? To me, it seems like the most likely scenario is that housing/rent continues to eat up a larger share of budgets than it did in the past.

GLAAD - these are the same lunatics that campaign for men in women's bathrooms and locker rooms. And full trans "health care" for children - ie hormone treatments, genital mutilations, etc. Good for Lindsey for protecting women & children in private spaces and women's sports.

Hey MAGA, should we use some of that $100B+ ICE budget to instead make housing more affordable for Americans? NAH How about at least for bodycams so these ICE goons have some accountability? NAH https://apnews.com/article/ice-shooting-maine-immigration-dhs-f26f8c2256aa6f0748582ea4adbb515c Y'all Quaeda is at it again!

America did not brainwash me. America unbrainwashed me. America gave me back something I did not even know I had lost. The belief that my life still can become bigger. https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=72369

LILAP starter and an add to AMRZ

Did he cast any other votes in the last 30 years? Perhaps you'd have preferred his predecessor in the Senate, Strom Thurmond.

Txinvestor, there is one more useful line you could add in there...percentage of total shares retired for that year. So, that would indicate if they are paying up in terms of p/b, but buying in the same percentage of total shares outstanding. That would clearly indicate that they believe there is a long-term structural change in intrinsic value and a higher p/b is achieving the long-term return they want. Cheers!

https://glaad.org/gap/lindsey-graham/ Cheers!

I asked chatGPT to construct this going back to 2017 since when's they've taken out almost 30% of their outstanding shares via buybacks. I would argue this divergence goes back to ever since the year the buyback started happening in earnest about 9yrs ago, once their equity hedges came off. This is evidenced by the fact that their earnings whether measured by total net earnings or EPS has grown despite all the capital ~$6B cumulatively allocated towards these buybacks. Year Shares Repurchased (millions) Total Cost (US$ millions) Avg. Purchase Price Year-end Book Value/Share Avg. Purchase Price as % of BV 2017 ~0.35 ~150 ~$430 ~$450 96% 2018 ~0.55 ~250 ~$455 ~$455 100% 2019 ~0.38 ~170 ~$447 ~$484 92% 2020 ~0.56 ~215 ~$385 ~$525 73% 2021 ~2.31 ~1,240 ~$537 ~$674 80% 2022 ~0.61 ~398 ~$652 ~$752 87% 2023 ~0.31 ~276 ~$890 ~$940 95% 2024 1.347 1,588 $1,179 $1,060 111% 2025 1.007 1,625 $1,614 $1,260 128% Â

Mortgage rates are in line with long term averages and well below when I financed my first, fifth and tenth property. Today's mortgage rates are not the culprit. Its the actual purchase price and cost of insurance, taxes and maintenance.

Thanks!

These 6.5% mortgage rates are great for first time home buyers... ...in Tehran! Fly that flag, baby! Yeehaw!

Yeah, @Spekulatius, It is. It's also an important message to Putin, who by now has placed his country in a somewhat deadock situation - primary because of the Eoropean support to Ukraine, where Russia simply can't keep up. With cooperation among the countries in the coalition of the willings this is far from a dream, a mirage. It will happen. - - - o 0 o - - - It looks to me as Danish PM Mette Frederiksen has gained some weight recently? - Maybe too much good food at meetings? -Maybe soon POTUS will call her fat and nasty!, - not just nasty ...

HaHa! - It's just awesome!

Sometime around the end of this month the US runs out of SPR reserves. Cushing (heavy oil) is already at below minimum level, with what's left as primarily sludge. Per the below, the four weeks is up Friday this week; assuming most of the SOH leakage over the last few weeks was US bound, give it another two weeks or so ... end of July. https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5928618-iran-deal-oil-reserves-g7/ VZ heavy oil supply is still very limited, Russian is essentially now only for domestic use; leaving mostly just Mexican and Canadian. And the US formally advising that it wants out of CUSMA ...... the art of the deal. The SOH now economically locked solid, and the Red Sea under attack, there will be a lot less leakage covering shortfalls. There will soon need to be a 2nd coordinated global SPR release, and China will be reentering the market in the coming months. Absent a sudden change; one has to think that the line ups at the pump start happening by around late August through mid September, maybe earlier. Israeli elections are 27-October, with Netanyahu projected to lose. US midterm elections a week later, on 03-November, with Republicans projected to lose the house. Potentially, ground breaking change in 3-4 months, with Israeli results bleeding into the US outcome. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-US-midterm-elections Hang on for the ride SD

Signal episode What happened within roughly 20 trading days Result July 12, 2024 COR1M reached its then-all-time low. The subsequent yen-carry unwind culminated in the August 5 selloff; the SPX decline from the signal area was substantially greater than 5%. Hit - 10% February 2025 — apparently around February 19 SPX peaked on February 19 and fell more than 3% during the following week; the decline continued considerably further during the following weeks. Hit -20% October 7, 2025 SPX suffered an approximately 3% intraday decline on October 10, three sessions later. The closing decline was approximately 2.7%. -3% - fail January 12, 2026, approximately COR1M again crossed the threshold, but SpotGamma subsequently said it reversed without a “meaningful vol shock.” -12% after 40 days May 29, 2026, inferred from the May 31 report SPX closed May 29 at 7,580.06. The lowest close through June 26 was 7,354.02, a −2.98% drawdown. The June 26 intraday low was 7,294.18, a −3.77% drawdown. -5% June 29, 2026–present A new episode began at 7.56 on June 29 and remains below 8. As of July 13, fewer than 20 trading sessions have elapsed, so the observation is incomplete. Open/ So maybe even 10% is a good target to shoot for.

Heck LC, that's minor league stuff. The major league catastrophe is driving the average age of first time home buyers to 40 years old - by unleashing 21% inflation during Biden's term and then letting 20 million illegals waltz into the country. Nothing like destroying the American dream of home ownership while driving rents through the roof. Don't worry though - your buddy Mandami has a solution - rent controls... and Trump sealed the border shut....

Here is a short article that estimates the impact on BVPS of share repurchases above book value. The size of the impact surprised me. Hat tip to @SafetyinNumbers for bringing this topic up in the past. Share Buybacks, Book Value and Intrinsic Value Warren Buffett has long argued that the economics of a share repurchase depend primarily on price. When a company repurchases shares below intrinsic value, continuing shareholders benefit. Their ownership interest increases without requiring them to invest additional capital, increasing intrinsic value per share. Book value is a separate question. Buybacks below book value increase BVPS. Buybacks above book value decrease BVPS. Neither outcome tells investors whether value was created or destroyed. That depends on whether the shares were purchased below intrinsic value. A good share buyback can therefore reduce book value per share while increasing intrinsic value per share. The Emerging Story at Fairfax This framework is becoming increasingly relevant for Fairfax. Since 2018, the company has aggressively repurchased its shares. In recent years, a meaningful number of those shares have been purchased at a premium to book value—but clearly below management's assessment of intrinsic value. The result is a growing divergence: Fairfax's buybacks are reducing reported BVPS while increasing intrinsic value per share. Consider Q2 2026. Fairfax appears to have repurchased approximately 675,000 shares for $1.08 billion, or roughly $1,600 per share. With BVPS of approximately $1,250 during the quarter, Fairfax paid about $350 per share above book value. Premium to book value: $1,600 − $1,250 = $350 per share Total premium paid: $350 × 675,000 = $236 million Assuming approximately 19.95 million effective shares outstanding at quarter-end: Estimated reduction in BVPS: $236 million ÷ 19.95 million = approximately $12 per share In other words, Fairfax's Q2 share repurchases are estimated to have reduced reported BVPS by approximately $12 per share. The estimated impact was approximately $10 per share in Q4 2025 and $8 per share in Q1 2026. Including Q2, share repurchases above book value may have reduced reported BVPS by approximately $30 per share over the past three quarters. Yet because Fairfax purchased those shares below intrinsic value, continuing shareholders are economically better off. The Impact on Traditional P/C Insurance Valuation For P/C insurers, investors often focus on two closely related measures of performance: BVPS growth and ROE. Share repurchases above book value affect both. BVPS declines. Fairfax is paying more than book value for each share it retires, reducing book value per remaining share. ROE increases, all else equal. The buybacks reduce common equity. If earnings do not decline proportionately, Fairfax generates a higher return on a smaller equity base. Value-creating buybacks can therefore make BVPS growth look weaker and ROE look stronger. Investors need to understand how capital allocation is affecting both measures. Why It Matters Book value remains an important metric for Fairfax, but it is becoming a less complete measure of value creation. As Fairfax repurchases more shares above book value but below intrinsic value, reported BVPS will increasingly understate the economic benefit of those repurchases. This also complicates valuation: Fairfax can increase intrinsic value per share while reducing the book value investors use to calculate its price-to-book multiple. This is an emerging story for Fairfax investors. The pace of buybacks has accelerated, and the cumulative impact on BVPS is becoming meaningful. Buffett's framework provides the right lens: book value measures the accounting impact of a buyback; intrinsic value determines whether it created value. For Fairfax shareholders, the gap between the two is becoming increasingly important. ------------ Appendix: A Partial Bridge from Book Value to Intrinsic Value Book value is an accounting measure. Intrinsic value is an economic measure. The two are not the same. One obvious adjustment for Fairfax is the excess of fair value over carrying value (FV over CV) of its market traded non-insurance associates and consolidated holdings. This is not a theoretical adjustment. The value is observable in publicly traded securities but is not fully reflected in Fairfax's reported common equity. At June 30, 2026, the excess of FV over CV is estimated at approximately $4.1 billion, or $205 per share based on 19.95 million effective shares outstanding. Assuming a 15% tax rate (lower for capital gains), the after-tax value is approximately $175 per share. If Fairfax reports BVPS of approximately $1,300 at June 30: Reported BVPS: $1,300 After-tax excess of FV over CV: +$175 Adjusted BVPS: $1,475 This is not an estimate of Fairfax's intrinsic value. It is simply one identifiable adjustment that provides a partial bridge from accounting book value toward economic value. It also provides useful context for Fairfax's share repurchases. A buyback at $1,600 may represent a meaningful premium to reported book value, but only a modest premium to adjusted book value—and a discount to intrinsic value. That is the key distinction. Fairfax is reducing book value per share to increase intrinsic value per share. As the pace of buybacks continues, understanding the difference between the two will become increasingly important for investors.

Trump is such a friend of the working class he made it 20% more expensive to drive my F250 to Walmart. Slide over to the end of the bar, Kash Patel - we're gonna need to Shaggy and Scooby to solve this mystery!

This is part of the European sovereignty drive but there is a huge difference between announcing a project and having a complete solution.

@John HjorthThanks, great advice. We love great beaches, fresh fish and a stressfree environment. So I think it will be a great holiday. Our 2 boys (8 year old twins) love to play at the beach. I bought a good surf board. I hope the north sea is not too cold.

Nice job! Different methodology for calculating intrinsic value than I use but they all end up in the same ball park.

Screw it, if not all - including USA - are not in on this : Ueractiv [July 13th 2026] : Ten European countries join forces to build anti-ballistic missile capability Subtitle : The initiative will bring together defence industries, research institutions and operational expertise. - - - o 0 o - - - USA has already lost it's control of / power over what's going to happen going forward.