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Come on, you do not. We've read the thread, and there's probably 150 posts from you that show this isn't true. My position is that, based on the evidence available at the time, it was a good decision to attack Iran, and was probably necessary after the mistakes Trump made during term one. The net outcome ended up being quite bad for the USA and it's unclear to me if the outcomes will be good or bad for the world.

Three days as you guys noted but they actually picked up the pace a bit. Their target is 50% of 2025 income in capital return. They paid a dividend of a little over 7 eurocents last week.They plan to spend up to €280m over the next year on the buyback based on the press release. It makes sense for them to be more aggressive at lower prices and it seems like they are.

New starter position in TYL

Its sooo tempting to checkout Marco Paulo on X, squirming uncomfortably, attempting to worm his way out of looking like a total fool tool whom once again basically became the guy who's screams about higher oil prices more or less marked the top. It was probably a "religious" experience like in August 2022 when he ate the top there too. Heck, he's even doing the "I bought in September 2025" appeal to rationalize how pretty much anybody whom listened to him during this whole saga lost money. Man the internet can be fun. But lesson should be learned, never take the guys selling newsletters that always seem to pump the same. exact. stuff...serious at all. If anything, theyre contras.

You focus on Trump, I focus on the Country and the World. There is no decision to be made because this entire conflict has yet to play out in the minds of anyone who cares about more than how it involves Trump. The winners could be the Iranian people and the entire Middle East region under the right circumstances. That is my hope.

Has there ever been any disclosure by Fairfax of ownership of Peller shares prior to the announcement of the takeover? I don't see any mention of it in the press release.

does it matter? could be the best company in the world and it doesn't make sense that someone who's comfy with 1-2% positions has a 50%+ position.

Lol. Or we do, either way, makes more sense.

I focused on Trump because I assumed you were American and cared mostly about a good outcome for America, since you're talking (trumpeting?) all the different ways that America can hurt Iranians. That said, I think I get it. You really don't want to make a decision between the two options because the first option means Trump is right but what you said earlier is wrong, or at best irrelevant, and the second option means what you said earlier is relevant, but Trump is too stupid to see it. Both scenarios are pretty intolerable to you, so it's a very good idea to avoid the question.

yes it is three trading days of repurchase activity

The gains from CDS aren't unlimited whereas the losses from equity hedges are unlimited, right?

Why does one need to pick either option or a "winner" or "loser" while negotiations have barely begun? You choose to view the issue from the POV of Trump - again not sure why. From Iran's POV - the one that matters, they either survive for a while or longer, or they don't. Don't know which one is better for the current regime operators or the country at large. We'll see.

As Buffett said, there was the possibility that the GFC would have taken down everything, including Berkshire...even though it would have been the last to fall. It's why only government intervention could backstop the problem! I suspect the CDS wasn't made to simply get a grand-slam homerun, but to make sure FFH was still standing when the shit really hit the fan! The equity hedges were done for a similar reason...they were just wrong on how government intervention globally would ignite a massive market run...not dissimilar to what we are witnessing today. The underlying, correlated risks won't become evident until the music stops! Cheers!

Risk management means paying a premium to buy insurance to limit the risk and if the risk doesn't materialize, you'll lose the premium only and not the exposure to unlimited losses like a direct short, right?

I think this is over 3 days... Europeans report the day and month backwards right?

What's the company? That matters because that some software companies are more likely to bounce back than others. And is this in a taxable or non-taxable account? If taxable, can you use the loss to offset other gains?

Perhaps KW can find something good to do with it. I of course don't know anything about the BC real estate market, but it certainly strikes me as a valuable piece of real estate in the right hands. KW has a presence in the Pacific Northwest so might not be too much of a leap.

So, if that's the case either: 1. All these options are likely to have much worse outcomes for the USA than the one Trump chose, or 2. Trump made a stupid decision signing this deal because he could've just done what you said. What scenario are you saying that we're in, #1 or #2?

Im glad im not the only one who feels cringe listening to him. How he claims to work all the time from the first moment he wakes up, to his smug self righteousness when he talks about how he’s cleaned more toilets than everyone else in the room that he’s usually in. And yea he’s gotta dump the leather jacket. It’s animal cruelty and also obnoxious. And why is he married to an old lady??

Concentration has to match one's disposition and personality too. An objective assessment may suggest x% for person A, but a smaller one for B. That said, if you look at all the wealth lists going back decades - the overwhelming number got there through concentration in some form.

Probably doing things differently, but I have a barbell approach, no ETFs. All long term holds. 70% Dividend payers - Cdn Banks. 30% Tech. - Apple, Google. Cash flow is protection for me as it gives me optionality for deployment into attractive companies. Dividends and earned income provide cash flow for investment - about 50%:30% these days. Doing this approach, you need to focus on quality and valuation at entry. If you want Tier 2 names, ETFs or keep to < 1% of the portfolio.

Yeah, Obama's looking pretty amazing right now--got a much better deal and didn't waste hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of lives to do it.

What price do we see next $60 oil or $100 oil?

Here is the link to a good overview of Peller Estates. https://s201.q4cdn.com/211846765/files/doc_presentations/2026/APL-Investor-Presentation-Q3-26-FINAL.pdf The reported purchase price can be misleading... Part of the purchase price will likely be funded with an increase in debt at Peller Estates. The key is how much $ is Fairfax contributing. And what will that investment earn over time? The big question for me is: How good is the management team at Peller Estates? There are lots of interesting angles to this deal: Real estate portfolio and inventory = C$500M Recipe/Keg - this will work both ways... restaurant competitors might not like it. This is a long term business - much better fit as a private company. The sector (alcohol) is pretty out of favour. From an income stream perspective, another addition to the consolidated bucket for Fairfax.

I think it depends on sizing. If your "largest" position is less than 10% it really doesnt even matter. Generally I think on one's best ideas you should be OK putting 5-7% of the portfolio "at risk". Meaning if you think theres potentially 50% downside a low teens allocation is reasonable.