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@chenisheng I didn't get the full tour. I just talked to one of their analysts. They have this really cool Nike Shoe Dog art work in the lobby.

Bro, its still at 7.75x generational cycle peak EPS if you extrapolate the most recent Q....

Agreed, not in its present form, and today ...... primarily for Albertan consumption. But it is a material conversation that needs to happen, the sooner and more open the better; there are at least 6 interlinked and simultaneous mega projects here. All-weather rail from Winnipeg to Churchill. All weather big pipe (oil + gas) from Hardisty to Churchill. Material expansion of Port of Churchill facilities to handle grain, oil, and LNG exports. LNG processing facilities at Port of Churchill to liquefy and load. Material expansion/upgrade of the Port of Churchill ice-breaking fleet. Material expansion of Canada's trade schools to provide the skilled labour and reduce the average age. Rail and pipe tie-ins to accommodate arctic oil/gas travelling south, serve Ontario and points east (Sarnia refining, west bound freight going north). Similar, but smaller expansion of St John and Halifax facilities to process o/g and export from Canada's Jeanne D'Arc Basin. https://ports.marinelink.com/oilrigs/rig/white-rose Today's industry tariff support and infrastructure build out repaid from future earnings, and a portion reinvested in new rounds of infrastructure build-out. But it means a very material and significant increase in fed/prov/corp debt (war-time levels), that is primarily raised and financed in CAD, privatisation of existing assets, and .... GIC's replaced with fed equivalents. The kids participate via the work/adventure, the old folks via the debt financing, the middle aged via operational experience/expertise and a better future. Sure, change is scary and not guaranteed ..... but there is a need to get the vision/plan out, consult with those affected, get the nations buy-in, and get to it. We're seeing the opening steps in the conversation. Do it well, and there will be no more separation talk for a very long time, and the stability to do long-range investment planning. War-time level effort .... but Lenny .... pull it off ..... and Canada is a great place to live/work for decades to come . Go Canada! SD

Bought MU, covered my short sale

I'll be there for that too. NFL despite being more mainstream in USA, has an even bigger issue with the legitimacy of the sport issues. Guys can no longer hit without fear of stupid penalties being called, QBs have gone from 1/11 to no contact players. The refs completely control the game with the ability to award virtually unlimited yardage on pass plays and otherwise hand out 15 yard, game changing penalties at will and with no video review options. If you like football, college is way better, although thats taken hits recently too cuz of the NIL stuff.

Im not a "professional developer" but a hobbiest and I pay personally $200 a month for the top tier of gemini ultra. I have vibecoded about 6 apps now from super simple to moderately complex. These are things I would never had the time or aptitude to develop on my own and wouldn't have been worth paying a developer to do. But now I can accomplish these projects while watching youtube and project managing the agents. I see no future in which I dont pay for strong AI models. Gemini Ultra comes with spark beta too. Which has bene super cool. Its kind of like having an executive assistant in my google workspaces. It actually drafts emails for me in my inbox. schedules stuff for me. I can task it with research or objectives and it does the tasks for me or creates documents in sheets/docs/slides for me. Ive been rather impressed with its outputs and multistep reasoning vs just asking questions to gemini in chat.

Maybe. Do you attribute any of the economy/stock market heights to Trump? Like you, the issue is perfectly clear to me: Trump is an optimist. His opponents are not. I prefer an optimist.

The issue is perfectly clear to me, that Trump is going to be able to do anything he wants as long as the economy and bull market sustain. We all know that both above are independent of politics, yet the popularity of politicians is dependent on such. If we had a declining market and economy I'm not so sure we wouldn't have our supreme leader hanging upside down by his tied up swollen legs by now. Wiser more stable true conservatives probably are sitting back thinking Trump is a relatively small time swindler that it is best to let him take-in a few billion doing scams; that this keeps out the liberals, it is a cost of doing business.

Nah. You just don’t get it. Much of sports is highly irrational. Why did Kobe go practice at 11pm, for 2 hours, immediately after a regular season game? Why do guys take substances detrimental to their health? Theres certain things largely considered players code, unique among elite levels of athletes. Unwritten rules of sport. If you can’t tell the fundamental difference between sign stealing, trying to sell a penalty, attempting to injure a player on the field by legally hitting him hard, and lobbying to prevent someone from playing before the game, thats ok.

@Maverick 47 Interesting post. Reminds me of companies that have different departments for sales, technical support and customer retention. There is always an inherent conflict because sales is all about numbers, technical support gets bogged down when customers recognize they were sold a bill of goods and angry customers leave when their issues are not properly addressed, thereby negatively affecting those working in customer retention. The individuals in each department often resent those in other departments due to the bonus structure for each department rather than the company as a whole, which creates an unsatisfactory work environment It would seem that with insurance, bonuses should likewise be a function of the company's overall profitability.

Bought my first Korean stock recently : 030190.KS Nice Information Service. This is the main Korean credit report business. Part of the Nice mini chaebol. Nice Info has net cash and trades at ~10x earning run rate. Pays a 3.6% dividend that seems rapidly growing. They do small buybacks too.

Spain is a top three team together with France and Argentina. They don‘t have standout players like Messi or Mbappe, just a handful or world class one that can play their system. The standout player of spain is potentially Lamine Yamal. He is 18 years old and the most valueable player in the world.

My favorite was when the supporter groups got into a brawl: https://www.thecharlotteledger.com/p/charlotte-fc-fan-group-fight-sends The hot takes here are definitely something else. It is always interesting when a tournament starts and people immediately try to rewrite the rules rather than take the time to understand them. It is a very unique kind of confidence to want to alter a global game just because you don't want to learn it, but it certainly sums up a lot of things right now.

HaHa! - I have grown a soft spot for your humor, @Spekulatius!

@Viking, Munger once said that he and Buffett were cautious of investing in financial companies that “were trying to do well”. Banks, for example, can appear to be more profitable than they actually are, if they are trying desperately to report profits, and in so doing, abdicate their responsibility to set prudent loan loss provisions…. An insurer I worked for once separated profit and growth goals by assigning the marketing department incentives based on growth, and the underwriting department incentives based on underwriting profit. You can imagine how these are in conflict. Tough to get a company pulling together when one part wants to write as many new policies as possible, while another part is motivated to restrict writing new business with its attendant new business penalty. Years later, a different company I worked for focused on growth some years and underwriting profit in others. Yet the underwriting and sales marketing departments continued to have individualized goals based on profit and growth separately. In years when the company as a whole emphasized underwriting profits, it became difficult to retain experience marketing reps as their bonus compensation, based on growth incentives, plummeted. And in one case I recall, when incentives were strongest for underwriting profitability, reserving actuaries for a large line of business apparently underserved that line significantly for several years in a row. Significant bonuses were paid for a few years in a row until the oversight could no longer be masked, and substantial loss reserve increases were booked instead. A few individuals were blamed and fired, but it was a painful few years thereafter to recover from that mistake. That is one of the reasons why it is so important to monitor reserving practices of an insurer. Fairfax is on the right track by focusing on making sure that reserving practices are conservative, and are more likely to be redundant than inadequate, as evidenced by a long track record of reserve releases from prior accident years. As you have so clearly outlined, Fairfax now has their insurance subsidiaries focused on steady underwriting profitability, prudent risk and catastrophe exposure management, with conservative reserving, at the same time that their investment and capital allocation decisions are virtually unmatched by competitors in the industry. From a value investor/shareholder perspective, their operational results are providing us with “margins of safety” in a number of areas, to say nothing of the excess of market over carrying value of their assets.

Hilarious how in a thread about the World Cup the best some people can contribute is whining about how they don’t like football/soccer. I’m starting to prepare a banger whining post if there’s ever a thread about the Super Bowl.

I rarely watch it anymore either. In part because of the dramatics.

Ah great game, totally worth not getting any sleep for! Spain is going to be difficult though...

Personally, I think 2x+ book or 15x P/E+ is roughly right. Based on first principles. Using relative valuation of other insurers as a reference, even that might be low. I don’t spend much time at all thinking about what multiple the market will assign my stocks. (This only works if the business understands capital allocation and their own intrinsic value and aggressively repurchases share if they are mispriced)

Yeah, it's interesting how often you and I align (though you probably don't know this because I post rarely.) I find your stock picks way more aligned with my thought process than anyone else here--there's maybe a 60% chance of me being intrigued by any given company you post about. At this point, it's become interesting to me seeing the places we don't align. (When it comes to investing, I think it's less the companies that we find interesting, and more that 1) I typically hold shares longer, 2) I don't think you do options much, and 3) you're better and more thoughtful at analysis than me.)

This is the straw man that you're attempting to sneak in to justify your silly position. They are lobbying to enforce the rules that remove players from the game not to ensure that they don't have to compete so hard, but rather to win. This is what professional sports is about--not players attempting to maximize their laziness. But simply winning. Winning. (Well, and also about money.) It's a really difficult position that you've taken, asserting that professional athletes don't care enough about winning to fight for every advantage, particularly in the peak contest of their sport that comes around maybe 4 times in their career. It's really hard to fade all the things professional athletes do for an edge (Body-destroying steroids! Dangerous and risky play! Deliberately injuring opponents! Shameful acting!), while simultaneously asserting that them asking that the rules be enforced would be a step too far for them.

@Maverick47, I find your comments very insightful and I learn a lot. Please keep them coming (it's like getting a peek behind the curtain). Thank you.

They used to be called application engineers or customer support specialist. Must be a new thing for these billion $ companies that such a thing exists.

Why did the group bring 11 guns and body armor to an ICE facility? Oh, yeah, they never intended to use them...sure Spek. Too bad they couldn't erase their Signal chat logs. Oh well.