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if it is the closing out of the TRS with the new debt proceeds isn’t that equivalent to exhanging callable floating rate debt at a 100% LTV of a floating Value with fixed rate debt for a fixed non callable 30 year term and a fixed proceed level. If so that would make sense to me.

Why? Thank you.

Complacency

LOL hilarious

The Trumpers, man… they’re like these little fish swimming upstream through a river of their own confusion. They keep staring at the rising tide of socialism like it just materialized out of the cosmic fog, completely forgetting they’re standing on the deck of the ship that’s taking on water. Their party feels like a monument to governance entropy, slowly dissolving into static. What did they think was going to happen? And Parsad, seriously, I respect you. Every time you disagree with me it’s like finding a hidden doorway in a room I thought I understood. You make me stop and inspect the wallpaper of reality. But I still think you’re underestimating the scale of what’s unfolding right now. The damage being done feels bigger than politics. It feels structural. Geological. Like cracks forming beneath the foundation while everyone’s arguing about the paint color. What really keeps me up is this looming fiscal singularity. Hyperinflation. Not as some abstract economic term floating around in a textbook, but as this enormous reality-bending force. People hear the words and shrug, but these things can reshape entire civilizations. They’re like tectonic plates moving beneath human consciousness. If people could actually feel the size of these forces, if they could see the shape of them from above, I think they’d be far more alarmed than they are. Instead I mostly see this weird blanket of apathy draped over everything. And does anyone here actually listen to Buffett? For fuck’s sake. The guy has been standing on the mountain for years waving warning flags about inflation, about speculation, about turning markets into casinos. He’s been repeating the same message over and over like some ancient economic oracle trapped in a time loop. But here we are. The brightest minds I can find online are locked in endless battles over trans people while simultaneously sketching elaborate diagrams explaining why Bitcoin is destined to become the sacred currency of the future. It’s like watching philosophers argue over shadows while the building they’re standing in slowly catches fire. I don’t know. Maybe it’s me. But it feels like the whole collective mind of the world has wandered into a funhouse and forgotten where the exit is. And Americans especially seem determined to stare into the mirrors until they mistake the reflections for reality.

1. We know we are buying it for less than half of liquidation which lowers the hurdle rate. 2. BIAL dividends and potentially fees from IDBI LPs might change this dynamic. 3. A lot of changes are happening in the macro. Is there anyway this changes? I think FFH is superior to FIH because of the market structure and leverage but FIH could do better in any given year. I own 7.5x more FFH than FIH but a year ago it was 11x.

The Trumpers are stupid. They like to act surprised about the rising tide of socialism, but fail to realize that their party is the definition of failing governance. What do they expect? I respect your views Parsad and your disagreements always give me pause. However, I also think you underestimate the damage currently being done by the Trump administration and just how bad the current situation really is. I fear a fiscal crisis and resulting hyperinflation. And I think that most people fail to grasp just how sizable these items actually are; that they have the power to change our entire reality. I think if people could understand, they may be more upset about what's happening instead of the apathy that I currently see. Does anyone here actually listen to Buffett? I mean fuck! This dude has been incessantly detailing the perils of runaway inflation and casino analogies for years now! But here we are, the smartest people I can seem to find on the internet, fighting over trans people and talking up our thesis on why Bitcoin is the future currency. I don't know. I guess I just feel like the world has lost its mind. I know Americans certainly have.

My personal opinion is there is a big difference between Fairfax and Fairfax India. 2 big ones. 1) Fairfax doesn’t need great equity investments to be a great investment. A mediocre equity performance there will lead to a more than satisfactory result ie 15%+ because of the float/investment leverage and locked in income streams. Fairfax India doesn’t have that. It’s an investment vehicle and its performance is directly correlated to its equity investments and at this point majority of it is linked to Bial. If you look 10 years out you have to trust their investment acumen much more than you have to do for Fairfax. 2) Fairfax can solve its own problems re low valuation by buying back its own shares. Fairfax India cannot do this as its cashflow poor ie its an investment vehicle. This is a major disadvantage. For Fairfax India you have to rely on a multiple rerate which again is most likely dependent on BIAL and its IPO and that will be a one time uplift. A third one is with Fairfax India you are always fighting against the headwind of currency depreciation. So structurally there are big differences. Of course I am rooting for Fairfax India but for me the investment case is much clearer for one than the other.

Repeatedly...position size is about 2.5X initial, all purchased in 2022 and 2023. Since late 2023, I've traded here and there when I thought it was beaten up by the market and then sold when I made a decent gain.

The discount to IV is probably over 50% now. Have you added to your position?

Looks like we could have two extremes with nothing in the middle. We need a third party that Thomas Paine would have called the Common Sense party.

ELME's largest and most important asset's PSA just got terminated, sending the stock down 22%. Assuming the other 3 sell (which are past inspection periods) and 5% t-costs? very rough here, using @realassetsvaluewriteup as an initial guide 1.80: 8% cap myeh, not much room for upside assuming sale @ some discount to prior contract 1.48 : 9% cap probably have nice upside 1.24: 10% cap back up truck, put as mcuh as you're comfy putting in one building, would have to have something really wrong with the building to not sell above here. any thoughts?

Good question and, honestly, I can't recall. Somewhat higher than BV which was 14 and change at the time. -Crip

Pleasure. Feedback welcome.

God damn it. The gnomes of Zurich are beating us 2-0

To our friends on the Democrat side of the aisle, how do you see - in light of Mamdani running the table in NY last night - the rise of the DSA and their attempted takeover of the party? Seems like it is happening. This is the mirror image of MAGA's takeover of the GOP. I never would have predicted that either.

Crazy what happens when the news folks stop pumping "things happening" that prompt gambling fools to pile into physical delivery commodities!

I bought a little bit of QXO today for the first time. I noticed BLDR was up and it reminded me of this former darling. Ready for that Brad Jacobs magic to commence now

ahhh...ok....now i get it, thanks for being upfront about this....

Thanks for writing and sharing.

What do you think intrinsic value was when you bought in 2017?

It is how some institutions trade although less now then when I was on the trading desk at UBS. If there was a PM or mandate change I can see it happening.

Tsm

Depends. if you are an aggressive seller sometimes regardless of price, happens all the time with institutions you will be willing to act opportunistically on block liquidity when it’s available. Even if your participation on previous days was much lower (because there was no matching block from Fairfax). Plausible scenario: Fairfax raised debt capital and potential sellers were made aware big block is available. also plausible: it was the trs also plausible but less likely: Fairfax not involved at all

You are right to be frustrated. Fairfax India hasn't delivered. 11 years is a LONG time. The biggest change I see is BIAL value is meaningfully increasing over the last year. That should reflect in FFI share price sooner or later..