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I think your assumption make sense. FFH takes a hit but the ship won’t go under. That’s one scenario where your probably get materially lower share prices for insurers like FFH. One thing to keep in mind is that Berkshire will absolute thrive in this scenario, because they have huge reserves and invest and write more insurance counter cyclically. FFH is already highly levered operationally and can do quite as much.

ok, fair enough, I can understand better why you might feel so negative about him. I only have positive experiences with him and have found him to be honest and generous with his ideas, but the behaviour you encountered sounds inexcusable.

Good on him! Cheers!

I sub. I enjoy it. I was already interested in payments space and bought PayPal (vs others) based on his research in June. I was also interested in the medical insurance space and was looking at Centene, but ultimately pulled the trigger on Molina based on Burry's research. Beyond that, he's got deep dives on AI/chips, Fannie/Freddie, and Hong Kong equities. None of which I've acted on, but some which already overlaps with existing positioning of mine. I've made enough on Molina and PayPal to justify the cost of membership for many years, so will probably let it ride. Also, don't quote me on this, but am pretty sure he donated the proceeds of each months subscription revenue to charity.

I didn't know him personally and have never met him - but it's been pretty clear to me that Tilson largely rides the coattails of his association with Ackman, Buffett, and Munger while demonstrating none of the same investment prowess. That doesn't mean he isn't capable of speaking on them, or synthesizing their strategies in hindsight, or commenting on investments generally. Just that he shouldn't be held in the same esteem. He's popular by association and self marketing - not because of performance.

I added cpng as well. it's like 30 cent on the dollar, but maybe we are all fools

I live in the real world ; China bound tankers are freely exiting the Bab-el-Mandeb straight for a reason. The speculative $X million per million bbl cargo, paid in missiles, drones, mines, etc; pay us 50c in the dollar (with weapons you make), or pay someone else a full $ plus in higher insurance and more security ????? ..... China's choice. Saudi Arabia sells the oil to China at a discounted price ???, to compensate for the charge; all entirely rational economic decisions, and everyone peacefully goes on their way . The Saudi's can pay more/bbl in transit charges to deliver smaller cargo's (< 1M bbl) via the longer Suez Canal, or pay less/bbl via the toll to deliver larger cargo's (VLCC, ULCC) via the shorter Bab-el-Mandeb route. Their choice. https://t.me/SimurghRes/7938 Bonus .... is the weapons intelligence collected, when Chinese ordinance is used in the US theatre; today's exquisite class weapons, tomorrows junk. Hardly surprising that Orange Boy is now threatening the largest strikes ever ... and higher prices still. Ho hum SD

Yup! I forgot about that one. Cheers!

....lol Source: Fox News Source: CNN Source: The Economist Literally EVERY poll has Trump's in net disapproval and falling. He's less popular now than Trump 1.0 and far less popular Obama ever was The delusion is unreal.... This is my most likely scenario. In business, when things got hard, Trump declared bankruptcy and left others holding the bags for his mismanagement. I don't know why we'd expect the presidency to be any different... He'll walk away and others will pay the price. Surging inflation from energy is its own solve - an affordability crisis/economic recession which will bring it back down. Now, when the government restarts the printing presses....

Crazy numbers if accurate! Is anyone here a sub? Are they worth it?

One of his best investments might be his newsletter! Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/michael-burrys-39-month-substack-105500686.html

Trump gambled on Iran. He thought it would go the way of Venezuela: he could take out the top leader ("decapitation") and overnight the situation would go in his favor. Unlike Venezuela, the Iran gamble didn't work out. Now Iran has shown it can choke up the Strait. The problem though is...the major powers: China, OECD, USA all want the Strait open. The Gulf Countries, etc want the strait open. Alternative routes/pipelines are being formulated to whither away at Iran's leverage of the Strait. The longer Iran uses its leverage on the strait, the weaker that leverage gets as alternatives are built. China is a low key ally of Iran and is likely pushing Iran to ease up. Will they listen? Who knows, but simplifying things tells me one thing: what USA/China/OECD + most of the Gulf Nations want is much more likely to occur than what Iran alone wants. There could be tail risks, yes, but the burden of proof is on the panicans...I still think the panicans will be wrong in most scenarios

I think it is safe to say that many tired of Tilson's prolific use of Buffett/Munger/Berkshire for self promotion. That said he was wildly popular with many Berkshire forum posters for a long time.

Is Tilson the guy who at one of the meetings said to Charlie in the Q&A "when we were having dinner together last month...." and Charlie cut him off and was like " were we both eating at a charity dinner with dozens of people" or something like that. I don't have strong feeling about Tilson, but I do think he falls into the camp of people who use a very loose connection or closeness to Warren and Charlie for their personal profit.

Tilson's T2 Partners and his Kase Capital both had a dreadful performance records and shut down. He also was noteworthy for his flip flops as to stock calls that he highly promoted to the public. I'd not read what Greg has to say if he reads this. It will rock your world!

The first time I met Tilson in 2002 at the Berkshire AGM, I attended an open gathering he had where a bunch of young investors and fund managers attended. I went up to speak to him just to thank him for everything he was doing for young investors and managers...and literally his eyes glazed over, he turned around, and started speaking to someone else. Never said a word to me, never turned back as I stood there. Perhaps it was an emergency...though he didn't move or go anywhere...perhaps he didn't hear me, but my cousin and other friends were right there and heard/watched everything. I don't know...but I've never done that to anyone in my life...even in an emergency, I apologize to them first and excuse myself. So something small, but it showed a flaw in his character...to me anyways! When Fairfax stock was getting batted around by payroll journalists and hedge funds in 2003, Tilson was a defender of their behavior. He was friends with some of them and vocally shorted stocks himself. Go read up on his past history from back then. So from a Fairfax shareholder perspective...strike two for me! Lastly, ask Gregmal what he thinks of Tilson's research...or many others from the past who used to watch Tilson literally copy short positions and long positions from many of his friends...Einhorn, Ackman, etc. For me...strike three...no originality as an investor! Cheers!

You are very sure of yourself and I have never seen you back down, that’s all, so I didn’t expect you would here, nor did you. But if you were there, and saw the eyes rolling, ok. Still doesn’t explain why you would be so negative about Tilson, but many others share your opinion, and of course you are entitled to it, even if in my opinion it seems totally unfair.

Seriously? You expect Chinese to pay anyone tribute?

Maybe, but we haven't heard or seen that with other reinsurance companies so far in Q2. Cheers!

$800M-$1B gain? Did we miss something that may have increased tangible book value dramatically? Cheers!

I don't have to prove it...I was there! Tilson whenever he would ask questions, they were long winding questions. Over time, everyone knew who he was and on one occasion, he got up to ask a question and it went on for like 30-40 seconds and Munger's eyes were rolling and glazed over...nothing to do with his blindness! Many in the audience started groaning when we saw Munger's face screw up over the question. As for some people's animosity to Tilson...maybe you should talk to those people on why they feel that way. Also, your attitude towards me about "not holding my breath"...first, what the fuck is that about, second, whatever reasons you may have, I'm not asking you to withdraw your accusation or comment...you are free to express yourself? But ask yourself how is that any different than another person's opinion on Tilson?

Maybe an early very large reserve release this Qtr? Fairfax should be releasing reserves from the early stages of the previous hard market now, although Fairfax has stated in the past that this is usually done in Q4. That is the only thing that I can think of that would move the needle. A $1B reserve release.

Added to LEN-B (Lennar Corp.)

Highest estimate is $250. Lowest estimate is $160 so it essentially trades at 7-10x P/E which reflects the variability in earnings.

How big is a whopper?