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Fair point on querying the 15%, I was recalling this from the Q4 25 CC: Bart Dziarski Analyst Maybe a question for Wade on the investment book. So we're seeing quite a dislocation in markets today. And so are you thinking about maybe shifting some of the positions, taking advantage and being opportunistic in this environment? I'd love to get some color on that. Wade Burton Executive I guess I would say we have a very robust skilled investment team, and we're constantly looking at all securities. We underwrite for 15%. And as you say, I mean, you're talking about the software and AI, but we're working very hard. And anytime we uncover any opportunities, we will act. So that's what I'd say. We're watching it all very closely, as you can imagine. Fairfax’s group objective is long-term 15% BVPS compounding, but I believe Wade’s “we underwrite for 15%” comment was made in the context of the investment book and “looking at all securities,” so I read that as a security-level / equity-capital underwriting hurdle, not as “we can accept 8–9% on the investment because Fairfax float leverage will do the rest.” The simple maths does show why the ambiguity exists. With common equity around $26bn, a 15% book-value target requires about $3.9bn of after-tax annual value creation. Fairfax has talked about roughly $2.5bn of interest and dividends, $1.5bn of underwriting profit and $1bn from associates/non-insurance businesses, or about $5bn of pre-tax operating income before market gains/losses. In that snapshot, the equity-style book (~$27bn of exposure) may only need to be in the high single digits to make the group maths work. But I agree that would be a slippery slope, which your observation above calls out. If Fairfax starts underwriting equity-style investments to 8–9% because the current balance sheet can carry the group target, they are effectively spending the margin of safety created by today’s bond yield and underwriting cycle. So my view is: the group can achieve 15% BVPS through a combination of float, fixed income, underwriting profit, and capital allocation, but individual equity/security investments should still be underwritten to around 15% before relying on Fairfax-level float leverage.

Trump had no choice but to capitulate because they run out of oil reserves in 4 weeks. - Iran had US by the balls as a Lehman moment was fast approaching. "we run out of reserves in about 4 weeks." - President stump https://x.com/ericnuttall/status/2067352550811058512/video/1?s=46

Y Yep. It will be trumpeted as a success regardless of the outcome, but it looks likely that the outcome will be net negative.

I think the $300B number may be a bit misleading. Maybe Trump thinks that the other Gulf states should pay for rebuilding Iran which I don’t think they are particularly fond of. Whatever, the outcome, I think it’s likely Trump leaves behind a larger mess than existed before, washes his hands and calls it mission accomplished. On to other projects…

It would be pretty darn funny if Iran won the whole thing in New Jersey. Obviously can't really happen, but still amusing to think about.

I mean, if $300 Billion is a just a little money, then Iran's oil exports are almost irrelevant. Over the past few years, they've been just under $50 billion a year. So, the government has gifted their "enemy", an oil state, about six years worth of oil revenue. Amazing! I think the fact that some here are shrugging it off shows how much politics is a team sport to some people. It's not about truth or reality--it's about being a fan. That's been clear for a while, of course, but juxtaposed the $300 billion with the complete outrage over Obama's $1.7 Billion, makes it super funny. And the fact that Cubs is still complaining about Obama's money is just the funniest thing. That said, unless the Vancouver Canucks hit a perfect storm of bad luck and injuries, they are certain to win the next Stanley Cup. The team is just too good.

You think? Art of a DEAL. Five away the store before negotiation even get started. Just like he tried with Putin to get a peace deal. I think this one will work just as well.

$KW - Kennedy Wilson, this investment of Fairfax has been a curious one for me. I know Prem has high regard for William McMorrow, but $KW was a disaster to its shareholders. The shareholder return vs management pay makes my stomach churn. I wonder how Fairfax will be protecting itself in this investment? I hope they keep an eye on Pay vs Performance! $KW Performance vs SPY and Total comp of CEO over the years (Via Gemini).

Just for clarification, are we sure that the 15% return is before leverage? I always assumed that it was after leverage. That said, I'm not a fan of the deal. I suspect that Fairfax has a home-bias that isn't related to potential returns, but something else, maybe a desire to be seen as a mover and shaker in Canada. Plus, I suspect they also have a touch of the disease most value investors seem to have where the investment has to not only be a value, but also different than what everyone else is doing. Like it's less important to maximize expected returns than it is to look innovative while doing it. All that said, I think it'll probably be a fine investment.

Lol ya, two middling soccer teams and two nations that are perpetually at war.

did they do that with toys r us selling of the RE

Because other than Ourkid8 and Cubs, no one gives two shits about both country's leaders! Cheers!

Agreed Trump wants to go home, just not so sure that Israel/Hezbolah feel the agreement also applies to them. Hard to imagine they aren't going to be tossing grenades. SD

I believe this is the first time, that a country at war with a host country (Iran - USA) plays in a World Cup. Funny that nobody talks about it.

The odd lots podcast goes through the oil shock that mostly occurred in Asia. a few facts (from recollection) - China’s oil consumption went down by almost 10% and in addition, they have huge inventory which they draped down. This is the reason they could reduce their imports so much. Poorer counties without much storage (Thailand, Indonesia, India) did run into shortages so demand destruction took place. My guess is that oil prices are too low relative to where we are at because the storages need to be refilled and that’s a lot of extra barrels. I also think some counties learned a lesson and will build out. more storage infrastructure and fill it up, but that’s longer term.

Well theres also this nonsense from oil bulls about how "Trump talked down oil prices"....ahhhh....thats not how it works. Trump talking, or your boner inducing 5-10% spikes on nothing but rumors....ultimately have ZERO to do with the actual supply and demand that oil is predicated on. So no, Trump didnt "talk down" prices, supply and demand when translated in the real world, proved you suckers just bid it up way too high speculating on your own conspiracy theories.

I think you are correct in identifying challenges with aging, sclerotic leaders. He’s not going to change for the better, and as he ages, instead of getting lazy, he just loses whatever filters and checks on his bad impulses that he might possibly ever had.

He is a master negotiator.

Hey if the Gulf States want to pay Iran $300B to rearm and develop nukes again - that would be pretty damn stupid.....but what do I know. If Iran needs $300B to rebuild - must have been some horrific damage done to their military!

A pyrrhic victory for oil bulls who were diligently counting storage levels. Based on everything I've seen and heard Trump and his team say over the last few days, there's basically zero appetite for any escalation with Iran if things don't work out during the 60 days.

UK vs Croatia, what a game!

Well so far he did too! 200 times more than Obama...plus U.S. soldiers killed. No nukes otherwise a Trump rebuke! No nukes otherwise a Trump rebuke! No nukes otherwise a Trump rebuke! Not as good a cheer as: Show the files, you pedophile! Show the files, you pedophile! But it will have to do. Cheers!

Adds to CRM and CMCSA