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My personal opinion is there is a big difference between Fairfax and Fairfax India. 2 big ones. 1) Fairfax doesn’t need great equity investments to be a great investment. A mediocre equity performance there will lead to a more than satisfactory result ie 15%+ because of the float/investment leverage and locked in income streams. Fairfax India doesn’t have that. It’s an investment vehicle and its performance is directly correlated to its equity investments and at this point majority of it is linked to Bial. If you look 10 years out you have to trust their investment acumen much more than you have to do for Fairfax. 2) Fairfax can solve its own problems re low valuation by buying back its own shares. Fairfax India cannot do this as its cashflow poor ie its an investment vehicle. This is a major disadvantage. For Fairfax India you have to rely on a multiple rerate which again is most likely dependent on BIAL and its IPO and that will be a one time uplift. A third one is with Fairfax India you are always fighting against the headwind of currency depreciation. So structurally there are big differences. Of course I am rooting for Fairfax India but for me the investment case is much clearer for one than the other.

Repeatedly...position size is about 2.5X initial, all purchased in 2022 and 2023. Since late 2023, I've traded here and there when I thought it was beaten up by the market and then sold when I made a decent gain.

The discount to IV is probably over 50% now. Have you added to your position?

Looks like we could have two extremes with nothing in the middle. We need a third party that Thomas Paine would have called the Common Sense party.

ELME's largest and most important asset's PSA just got terminated, sending the stock down 22%. Assuming the other 3 sell (which are past inspection periods) and 5% t-costs? very rough here, using @realassetsvaluewriteup as an initial guide 1.80: 8% cap myeh, not much room for upside assuming sale @ some discount to prior contract 1.48 : 9% cap probably have nice upside 1.24: 10% cap back up truck, put as mcuh as you're comfy putting in one building, would have to have something really wrong with the building to not sell above here. any thoughts?

Good question and, honestly, I can't recall. Somewhat higher than BV which was 14 and change at the time. -Crip

Pleasure. Feedback welcome.

God damn it. The gnomes of Zurich are beating us 2-0

To our friends on the Democrat side of the aisle, how do you see - in light of Mamdani running the table in NY last night - the rise of the DSA and their attempted takeover of the party? Seems like it is happening. This is the mirror image of MAGA's takeover of the GOP. I never would have predicted that either.

Crazy what happens when the news folks stop pumping "things happening" that prompt gambling fools to pile into physical delivery commodities!

I bought a little bit of QXO today for the first time. I noticed BLDR was up and it reminded me of this former darling. Ready for that Brad Jacobs magic to commence now

ahhh...ok....now i get it, thanks for being upfront about this....

Thanks for writing and sharing.

What do you think intrinsic value was when you bought in 2017?

It is how some institutions trade although less now then when I was on the trading desk at UBS. If there was a PM or mandate change I can see it happening.

Tsm

Depends. if you are an aggressive seller sometimes regardless of price, happens all the time with institutions you will be willing to act opportunistically on block liquidity when it’s available. Even if your participation on previous days was much lower (because there was no matching block from Fairfax). Plausible scenario: Fairfax raised debt capital and potential sellers were made aware big block is available. also plausible: it was the trs also plausible but less likely: Fairfax not involved at all

You are right to be frustrated. Fairfax India hasn't delivered. 11 years is a LONG time. The biggest change I see is BIAL value is meaningfully increasing over the last year. That should reflect in FFI share price sooner or later..

That's just not how people trade. 2% of the entire company in one block trade cross. Does Fidelity even own that much? Does Fidelity get credited with owning the shares that I own through Fidelity?

Fidelity has been trimming lately. Maybe it was them.

That's our nickname for Rich Privorotsky, the analyst who put out the note. .

Netflix

what exactly is Privo ---he didn't quote Privo or anyone for that matter, so he seemed to be passing off as his own writing.

There may be an element of being spoiled by “great annual results” out there, but with FFH and FFHI, there are significant differences. FFH – The company is simply worth more than it’s currently selling for. How much more is debatable, but definitely more. The frustration is not hugely significant, at least from my perspective. It’s more of a curiosity at the manic nature of Mr. Market, offset in large part by the fact that every share I own is becoming a larger share of the company as they use this downturn in price to buy back shares at an attractive price. Over the past several years, the company has performed tremendously well and the share price has followed. Frustration level – very low. FFHI – The presentations by Ben Watsa as well as the quotes from the AGM a couple of years ago, shown above, point to the immense potential of India and Fairfax’ position to capitalize on said potential. I bought into it when starting my position in 2017 at $15/share. To date, capitalizing on that potential has been very slow, and that is very frustrating. Yes, BIAL continues to increase in value each passing day, but if we’d have asked back in, say, Mid-2021, when do we think we’ll be able to monetize that, the majority of the board would have guessed before mid-2026. The company’s holdings have changed here and there but not significantly so in the past 5 years. The pace of transitioning “opportunity” to “tangible returns” has been disappointing. Worth noting that my investing style really is lethargy, bordering on sloth as most of my top 5 holdings have been not only multi-year, but multi-decade (FFH, BRK, MKL, JNJ). Frustration level – Medium, but increasing. -Crip

No jokes on me. I was simply putting fwd what I discussed at work and my colleague put this fwd. He did say it was from Privo, I didn't see Privo and posted that part here.