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Just a general reminder to members who have Substack or similar profiles, please don't pitch your site on here (paid or unpaid). If you have a thesis written up you want to share, you are more than welcome to post it in the Investment Ideas page under the ticker symbol for the idea. But hawking your Substack is not allowed. If another board member complains: 1st Warning - Temporary ban 2nd Warning - Full ban Cheers!

AI is going to kill us off...we aren't worth saving! Cheers!

Substack, Stripe, etc end up taking close to 20% of the revenue made on Substack according to ChatGPT. 5% to charity...not so good...but at least it's something! Cheers!

Maybe he's changed over the years? I'm holding him to account for stuff that happened 20+ years ago...so that might not be fair any more. Cheers!

Sanjeev [ @Parsad], Geez, What an arrogant behavior.

I would skew to the 3 engines. the latter 2 should be separate as they have different control over operational decisions. Then I would ask the following question, how do you see their use of at various times and to varying amounts: 1) holdco debt. 2) pref equity 3) minority outstanding insurance subs. stakes 4) TRS/Index shorts/CDSs 5) Share buybacks I guess technically you could call them all leverage on investments but it's more akin to what trading desks that investment banks do but over the longer term. I've said this before but I think it's all about giving them 360 optionality in capital allocation.

I feel the substack business is also helped by folks loving to read and to write. I wonder if future generations will be same with proliferation of podcasts and whatnot. feel the same way about this forum!

Every few years, there's a re-telling of why folks like or don't like Tilson. I think that's pretty cool. TIlson also gets a lot or more than his fair share of credit with the Netflix thing.

Golf, Baseball and football are boring in my opinion. Football would be fun if it weren’t interrupted so much. Rugby is much more fun to watch than football. Soccwr is the most played and watched sport in the world by a wide margin. There are reasons for it.

The Saudi’s are nuking up. It’s inevitable as everyone realizes, they need nuclear deterrence. The Saudi’s have a defense pact with Pakistan which likely gives them access to nuclear tech. https://www.wsj.com/opinion/saudi-nuclear-enrichment-donald-trump-iran-uranium-90be14a6?mod=trending_now_opn_4

Hooray! https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/taylor-morrison-home-shareholders-approve-070206651.html

I know I know, don't quote me and I'm quoting you. It's 5% to charity. I wonder how much substack actually makes on him? Substack has built quite an attractive business.

I think your assumption make sense. FFH takes a hit but the ship won’t go under. That’s one scenario where your probably get materially lower share prices for insurers like FFH. One thing to keep in mind is that Berkshire will absolute thrive in this scenario, because they have huge reserves and invest and write more insurance counter cyclically. FFH is already highly levered operationally and can do quite as much.

ok, fair enough, I can understand better why you might feel so negative about him. I only have positive experiences with him and have found him to be honest and generous with his ideas, but the behaviour you encountered sounds inexcusable.

Good on him! Cheers!

I sub. I enjoy it. I was already interested in payments space and bought PayPal (vs others) based on his research in June. I was also interested in the medical insurance space and was looking at Centene, but ultimately pulled the trigger on Molina based on Burry's research. Beyond that, he's got deep dives on AI/chips, Fannie/Freddie, and Hong Kong equities. None of which I've acted on, but some which already overlaps with existing positioning of mine. I've made enough on Molina and PayPal to justify the cost of membership for many years, so will probably let it ride. Also, don't quote me on this, but am pretty sure he donated the proceeds of each months subscription revenue to charity.

I didn't know him personally and have never met him - but it's been pretty clear to me that Tilson largely rides the coattails of his association with Ackman, Buffett, and Munger while demonstrating none of the same investment prowess. That doesn't mean he isn't capable of speaking on them, or synthesizing their strategies in hindsight, or commenting on investments generally. Just that he shouldn't be held in the same esteem. He's popular by association and self marketing - not because of performance.

I added cpng as well. it's like 30 cent on the dollar, but maybe we are all fools

I live in the real world ; China bound tankers are freely exiting the Bab-el-Mandeb straight for a reason. The speculative $X million per million bbl cargo, paid in missiles, drones, mines, etc; pay us 50c in the dollar (with weapons you make), or pay someone else a full $ plus in higher insurance and more security ????? ..... China's choice. Saudi Arabia sells the oil to China at a discounted price ???, to compensate for the charge; all entirely rational economic decisions, and everyone peacefully goes on their way . The Saudi's can pay more/bbl in transit charges to deliver smaller cargo's (< 1M bbl) via the longer Suez Canal, or pay less/bbl via the toll to deliver larger cargo's (VLCC, ULCC) via the shorter Bab-el-Mandeb route. Their choice. https://t.me/SimurghRes/7938 Bonus .... is the weapons intelligence collected, when Chinese ordinance is used in the US theatre; today's exquisite class weapons, tomorrows junk. Hardly surprising that Orange Boy is now threatening the largest strikes ever ... and higher prices still. Ho hum SD

Yup! I forgot about that one. Cheers!

....lol Source: Fox News Source: CNN Source: The Economist Literally EVERY poll has Trump's in net disapproval and falling. He's less popular now than Trump 1.0 and far less popular Obama ever was The delusion is unreal.... This is my most likely scenario. In business, when things got hard, Trump declared bankruptcy and left others holding the bags for his mismanagement. I don't know why we'd expect the presidency to be any different... He'll walk away and others will pay the price. Surging inflation from energy is its own solve - an affordability crisis/economic recession which will bring it back down. Now, when the government restarts the printing presses....

Crazy numbers if accurate! Is anyone here a sub? Are they worth it?

One of his best investments might be his newsletter! Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/michael-burrys-39-month-substack-105500686.html

Trump gambled on Iran. He thought it would go the way of Venezuela: he could take out the top leader ("decapitation") and overnight the situation would go in his favor. Unlike Venezuela, the Iran gamble didn't work out. Now Iran has shown it can choke up the Strait. The problem though is...the major powers: China, OECD, USA all want the Strait open. The Gulf Countries, etc want the strait open. Alternative routes/pipelines are being formulated to whither away at Iran's leverage of the Strait. The longer Iran uses its leverage on the strait, the weaker that leverage gets as alternatives are built. China is a low key ally of Iran and is likely pushing Iran to ease up. Will they listen? Who knows, but simplifying things tells me one thing: what USA/China/OECD + most of the Gulf Nations want is much more likely to occur than what Iran alone wants. There could be tail risks, yes, but the burden of proof is on the panicans...I still think the panicans will be wrong in most scenarios

I think it is safe to say that many tired of Tilson's prolific use of Buffett/Munger/Berkshire for self promotion. That said he was wildly popular with many Berkshire forum posters for a long time.