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+1 I mean Presidential US elections are purely binary and for most folks, the best of two choices they would not otherwise make. The fact that we support Trump does not mean we agree with, or like everything he does or says. Yet the opposition's most vocal point is "get Trump". Any wonder why socialists are taking over the Democratic party?

New starter positions in CME, MKTX and TW

Thanks @petec. Perhaps I’m a bit hypersensitive due to past experiences. Without knowing the finer details, a 50% discount to book value doesn't seem all that far-fetched given the performance over the last decade. It’s all the better, that you’re shedding some light on this. A peer comparison would indeed be a major undertaking. I took a look at South Africa a few years back, and Bidvest stood out to me as a company that "at least knows a bit about what it's doing", of course they are also at the mercy of major (macroeconomic) trends. Unfortunately I ended up trusting Fairfax’s expertise more than my own gut feeling in the March 2020 drawdown.

Sending you encouragement, @Sweet! You’ve got this, and getting professional assessments is a wonderful, proactive step. Every child truly blooms on their own timeline. My son will be 5 soon, and he didn't start speaking until he was 4, with his first full sentence coming around 4.5. Interestingly, his 2-year-old little sister actually beat him to her first sentence! On top of that, he is one of those amazing kids who can focus on Legos or Magna-Tiles for hours. Because of that unique mix, we naturally wondered about autism. We reached out to several specialists, and the wonderful news was that he was simply a late bloomer with a significant speech delay. It took a little patience to find the right fit, but after two years of speech therapy with a therapist he absolutely bonded with, he is thriving and catching up so fast! While he’s still working hard to bridge the gap with his Pre-K peers, his vocabulary is absolutely mushrooming right now. Hang in there! Trust your instincts, lean on the specialists, and celebrate every little victory along the way. You’re doing an amazing job!

Yeah, I think this is one of the key things I've got from reading this particular political board. Like, so many people online and offline seem to say that anyone who would support Trump is idiotic, ill-educated, and insane. You often hear the criticism that his supporters are too stupid to even realize that he's not on their side, but just working for himself. It never seems to occur to them that Trump can be a corrupt, self-dealing narcissist, and people might rationally conclude that he's better than the alternative. (That said, I think he's probably still worse than the alternative because of the second order effects--destroying democratic norms and causing to a socialist kickback that could cause immense harm. But the point is that if, without ad hominem attacks, you can't explain why a reasonable person would vote for Trump, then that's your failing, not theirs.)

Hi! At a very basic level yes the $8m and $104m numbers are right. However the $8m number is based on only one quarter, so it may be wrong. Also, it includes nothing for carry, which could be quite valuable. I would not compare the valuation of Helios with the other assets for three reasons. Helios can turn on a dime. One big fund, or one successful investment, could flip it to profitability. It is a very different animal to say Trone, a profitable medical devices distributor carried at 9.4x ebitda. For the majority of the other businesses, we have third party investor validation of the valuations. HFP have no real incentive to value Helios correctly. It is an intangible and it makes no practical difference whether it is carried at $0 or $50m or $100m. So long as they can defend the assumptions in the DCF, they probably don't spend all that much time on it. The other valuations, however, have to be defended and justified to LPs in a very different way. Finally, the share price is 50% of book value even if you exclude Helios completely. So it really is a free option. Peer comparison is a lovely idea but - done right - very time consuming! Pete

I'd suggest all at once, for your sake and for the overall quality. My reasoning is, when writing longer works over the course of many days, you might be changing something later in the book, and it'll trigger some thought at applies earlier. Like, you could've phrased something different, or have another example you're trying to illustrate, or there's a really elegant way to express something, or you could have tied the chapters together better if you'd done something slightly different earlier. If you serialize it, these cases will likely frustrate you beyond all reason. It's very annoying when you think of something really elegant, but can't include it because the moment is past. So, while serializing is better for the short term readers, I think all at once is better for the author and also the quality of the final work. For my style of writing novels, it makes a huge difference, because I'm all about making my characters suffer. And there's many cases where I'm thinking, "X happening will make them miserable", and then realize, "but if ten chapters earlier, I show that they went through something that made them particularly emotionally vulnerable to X, then it'll be excruciating."

Some more BTC

By the way, have you already checked him for vision or hearing issues. It might have nothing to do with autism or any sort learning disability. I needed glasses when I was a toddler...and still wear them 53 years later! Not using words may also be a sign of not being able to properly hear the words, so the natural default comfort level is to guide you by the hand to what he wants to communicate or point at. Also, whatever the issue might be...if there even is one...don't stress or panic. Just deal with it like any thing else...night time feedings, potty training, the flu, etc. It's just another problem/issue a parent has to deal with and you've handled everything else already! Cheers!

Adding a lot to the financial exchanges. Back in on Netflix.

I wouldn't say they're anymore dangerous than futures which are also available to retail. But is dependant on how much leverage the provider allows. Coinbase gives me perpetual swaps on Sunil leverage ratio terms to normal CME futures. But there are other crypto exchanges that have historically offered 100:1 leverage which is dangerous regardless of what you're trading.

I have been adding a lot to the US based names plus BOLSY over the past week or so. Even dipped my toes into NDAQ, TW, and TMXXF for the first time.

I also think they are swaps. They walk like swaps and quack like swaps. I haven't traded them but have looked at them and I think they are incredibly dangerous for retail investor. If you own calls and the underlying drops like a rock, you lose the value of the call. If you own one of these perps, you might find yourself completely wiped out. Never mind the funding rate, which can eat away at the gains.

I think what most people are missing with the Europe vs America wealth debate is that Europe doesn't get to print infinite amounts of paper money out of thin air to buy global goods/assets/products with. At least not anywhere to the extent the US gets to. Every second the USD remains the reserve currency is a second that were trading something that is largely worthless and getting something of real value. Every fiat currency does this, but being the global reserve means we get to abuse the shit out of it. That small benefit across every int'l transaction every day for decades adds up.

EVO, CPRT, VEEV. Cheap valuation relative to growth/history and all have big buybacks and great balance sheets.

CME and TMXXF Thanks Lance

Thx!

Think in terms of a modified/re-named version of the Statement of Cash Flows. Reconciliation on the change in the years cash position, bucketed via 'cash flow from operations', 'cash flow from financing activity', and 'cash flow investing activity'. Cash flow from operations: dividends, interest, option premiums, realised gains, realised losses, etc. Cash flow from financing activity: monies to/from UK rental real estate, hotel partnerships (Paris), etc. Cash flow from investing activity: monies to/from partners, broken out by partner. The family funds buy 40% of a partners house, so that the partner may extinguish a mortgage, to free up cash for grand kids .... it will show up as an outflow from financing activity. A subsequent divorce and sale of the house, the 40% ownership shows up as a financing activity inflow. Mortgages on UK rental real estate adjusted up/down such that taxable net income on the property is zero. The change in mortgage balance, flowing in/out of cash flow from financing activity. One of the advantages of also being a CPA .... SD

1. I didn't really talk until i was 4 and was reading at a college level by 6th grade (alas! my relative intelligence / achievements plateaued early). I let my sister do all the yapping for me. this likely comes as a surprise to many here on COBF as now there's little i love more than the sound of my own voice. 2. If you haven't already, I'd have him tested for the "certain diagnoses" which you reference (autism?). How you choose to handle/what you do with whatever diagnosis is is up to you, but why not at the very least, seek as much information. Our friends' son was diagnosed at 6 and they feel strongly they wish they knew earlier as it relates to educational choices they made. their kid is in a school where he's thriving and he was previously not. they can afford it and are glad to have that knowledge. I may be misreading it, but I perceive skepticism of such a diagnosis in your writing. I understand the aversion and it seems like the whole mental health industry overdiagnoses, but I'd seek as much information as possible. 4 is pretty old to not be talking a lot.

Thanks, @Viking. My vote would be for the serial format. Selfishly speaking, sometimes there can be a multi week stretch with not much news of the company available and your posts give me something to look forward to!

My cousin's daughter is extremely active, precocious and playful. At about 3, some of us recognized her verbal skills were progressing slower than other children in the family of the same age. She understood perfectly fine, but at times would get very agitated/frustrated when communicating and playing with other children. As she entered pre-school, the educators there noticed similar issues. Her Mom wanted to get her assessed, but her father and grandmother who were more old school and didn't want her to stand out from other children, were resistant. Eventually, they had to do it because she was falling behind the other children. Once they received the assessment in kindergarten, she is on the spectrum but I don't know all of the details yet, but I do know they were immensely relieved. They could at least find the right assistance with private educators that could help her to keep up with the public school children she was in the same class with and had become friends with. Now I have no idea if there is anything that suggests your child needs to be assessed. Only you can make that judgement call with your spouse. But if any part of you feels like you don't want to expose your child to that type of assessment yet, I would take heart in knowing that they will not assess your son and diagnose him with anything unless the assessment indicates something. At that point, you and your spouse can decide what the best route is for your son and your family. I also know of some children that develop verbal/reading skills later...so it certainly isn't anything to panic over. Just watch your son, how he interacts, and if you feel that an assessment may be a good idea, it's ok to get one done. It has zero reflection on him, you or your spouse. My nephew spoke early and often...boy that kid loves a conversation even to today. But he was very slow to learn to read unlike his younger sister, even though the whole family read to him all of the time. He went into kindergarten only knowing the alphabet, numbers and very rudimentary reading like "cat", "dog", etc. Next thing we know, by the end of the year, he was reading everything he could get his hands on and his ability to recognize and pronounce words jumped a couple of grade levels. By the end of grade 1, he was reading above a grade 4 comprehension level! Today he's a voracious reader...unfortunately, most of it done on an iPad these days...but he's reading non-stop. He plays hockey, is working on his black belt in Tae Kwon Do, loves steak and any protein he can get his hands on, can be a bit cocky at times, but is incredibly loving and empathetic, and will talk your ear off about everything from sports to politics, his future, trying to make the NHL, being the next Elon Musk (God no!), and plays video games! Cheers!

My kids are older but my wife and I always invite them on our trips abroad, which they usually accept (go figure). One of them also had a speech impediment when he was young but our Pediatrician never advised us to do anything formal about it since he was otherwise a smart, energetic, highly motivated kid. Still is, and though in hindsight we wish that we'd have taken him to a specialist, he manages OK but it takes more effort than it probably should on his part.

They'll be opportunistic. If they find they are getting sports programming in a nice package for a fair amount, they will buy it. Sports programming is really the only thing keeping cable alive. Eventually, the streamers will replace the cable companies once they realize tie-ups with the cable companies aren't worth it any more. We're not there yet. Cheers!

I would like some feedback. I am in the process of updating by book on Fairfax. I am doing a pretty substantial edit - structure and content. It will probably take me 6 months before the book will be ready to be published (parts of it are a mess right now). I have two options with publishing the edits... All at once: Wait until the book is complete Publish chapters as they get completed. The new book will have a chapter on Management and Culture. The six articles above are from that chapter. My question is what option do board members prefer? Hold off... and publish everything at once? Likely late this year. Or do it in serial format - publish the chapters as they get completed. Like what I did with the Management/Culture chapter? My guess is I will complete a chapter about every 2 weeks (the next chapter, insurance, is almost done). Or is that going to be overkill (volume of material is too high). Thanks in advance...

Adding to Sony. It doesn't have the IP of Nintendo but at least management is restructuring to increase margins. Games are in the dumps but imaging is getting a nice tailwind from AI. Not world beaters but solid balance of businesses reasonably well run still at 6/7 times cf.. I like the anime stuff.