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The AI Trade got obliterated the last month, with leading names down a ton. I wouldn't really call this a buying opportunity but it seems like the crash of the internet bubble in 2000 in the early stages. A lot of these names still trade at >20 times sales and still has ways to go down. The question is is this just a pullback or is the AI trade effectively "over"?

Those with a subscription to the Daily Telegraph may want to confirm the reporting.... Supposedly; the Houthis are expanding ties with Somalia's al-Shabaab, including the use of Iranian drones, to 'exert influence' on both sides of the Bab-el-Mandeb exit into the Gulf of Aden. The only other way out of the Red Sea is via the Suez Canal; the maximum Suezmax tanker is limited to 160,000 DWT, about 1/2 that of a southbound VLCC loading at Yanbu. A forced temporary diversion of tanker trade north, could well cut off around 1M bbl/d of Saudi egress .... spiking price. https://www.fairwayeta.com/insights/tanker-sizes-explained-aframax-suezmax-vlcc-ulcc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East–West_Crude_Oil_Pipeline SD

It might be chump change but it’s a big distraction and riskier for JPM or Mitsubishi when they don’t understand the culture. You might be right but that’s what makes a market.

With any luck, the Cyber Ninjas will be on the case to prove that the 2020 election totals in Georgia were wrong, and that Biden won by even more votes.

So why was an external bank like a large North American bank, Japanese bank etc involved or even apparently interested. $5B is Chump change for JPM or Mitsubishi and well worth it to get a strong foothold in an emerging economy like India. I understand the gov't may have different priorities but to say this was a super competitive and efficient bid process would be a stretch.

Exactly. They've stated that their longer term ROE goal is 15%. And when their own shares are available at around that level or better, it's one of the best use of excess funds. And for those of us who plan to hold for many years an added bonus is that it helps extend the runway. There is a quote attributed to Buffett regarding assessing valuation. "Whether you are 300lb or 315lb, you're still fat". You really don't need to be precise when it's a fat pitch. Just let time and valuation do the heavy lifting. In Fairfax's case the business model, carefully constructed leverage and steady revenue streams do the heavy lifting. One just has to have patience and not let the noise around the stock market impact you too much.

I see it differently. The process was always going to take a long time (4 years so far in this case). They negotiate terms before price. It’s a big investment in time to find out the price wasn’t close to expectations. I think it also depends on government goals. Selling to a large established Indian bank probably means job cuts. Selling to Fairfax means a chance to create a global champion. I also don’t think taking an efficient market lens is correct here. The float was only 5% so was squeezed higher on speculation. The price was always going to be lower. It has to be low enough so the public doesn’t tender.

The AI model will never be as good of a business than regular software or even cloud, The reason is that the incremental cost to for Each query is actually quite high - it’s the computing cost for tokens. I think i saw that Anthrophics gross margins are only about 40% according to some posters on X. We will find out with the S-1. It will extremely Important for them to have the most efficient computing stack possible or the economics might look pretty grim otherwise. It’s clear now that the model itself has very low switching cost at least for current applications like coding.

Looks like a delicious baked dish, but why are you calling it pizza?

Bought a bunch of Comcast.

Reminds of this - "Donald Trump? Well his main achievement in life, it seems to me, is that he's managed to cover 90 per cent of his head with 30 per cent of his hair - Christopher Hitchens

Buffett owns OXY though.

This was the presentation that I used last week that has my thoughts on valuation, book value, ROE amongst other stuff. I find ROE and P/E most useful (especially as Fairfax earnings power has become much more stable). Book value is an additional data point and quick way to compare insurers. However an insurer trading at 1x book earning 8% ROE is much more expensive than an insurer trading at 1x book earning 20% ROE. Which will be captured in the PE multiple (i.e the second business will be trading at a much lower PE). Fairfax_Pitch_final_P&R_VIS.pdf

Messi has an old school mentality. High IQ, incredible skills, and tenacity. There is zero flop in Messi's game. He's like an NFL running back when he has the ball and will run through just about anything if he can. The game would be so much better if people had his tenacity instead of the flop tendency. Sports across the board are getting soft. I think it's more engrained in the generation than any specific sport. NFL, MLB, NBA, Tour de France etc. all getting soft.

Incredible player! I remember watching him, Samuel Eto'o and Ronaldinho on the front line at Spain. People tried to say he had no air game because he's short but he proved them wrong. Can't believe he's still playing at this level when Ronaldinho is long gone.

Yea but AI's gonna be big.

Yea man besides porn, what's the point of the internet haha

I don't know if it was the same thing for him but for me the news about TPU and going after Nvidia lunch caused a huge bump in my valuation of Alphabet. It has now a long ramp up for growth

Imo you just need to be directionally correct, especially if the company is pumping out high ROE and compounding equity at high rates. At 1.1x book, you know that directionally, Fairfax is cheap even if it had an average ROE. So the fact that they are doing buybacks and that they have well above average ROEs just means that its pretty damn cheap right now.

LOL, @73 Reds, I may [perhaps, only perhaps! ] have gotten out of line here, entering self-occilation mode! -Honestly, I'm just so tired and fed up with all this Epstein sh*te [not judging anyone not already convivected]!

Just look at the process, it's been dragged out, withdrawn, and restarted, and there are only 2 bidders remaining and the prices being reported are below where it was trading a few months ago. None of that speaks to strong demand.

LOL, I had a hard time taking Obama. At least Buffett always means well.

It's all PR *BS* - Causing Medal of Fredom to Buffett by Obama - and what do I know. To me, nauseating. I have a hard time taking it.

This is the way

Buffett is a very smart man, but he's had many misses. Airlines, IBM, etc. etc. I think the worst thing you can do is factor Buffett buying into your investment thesis and decisions. Google is a double digit portion of my portfolio fwiw.