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With both Recipe and Sleep, they levered them up on acquisition to reduce the equity investment up front. A different way of doing that would be to sell non-core assets. This increases the return especially if those assets weren’t generating income.

Germany looks dangerous to me! Need to see them play more, but their touch was terrific and they were constantly a threat. Cheers!

You guys can make fun all you want, but it would be an absolute royal fuck up by Trump unless nuclear materials are no longer in Iranian hands. There would be no result worse in Trump's life other than his association with Epstein. So it's only a win with no nukes, no nuclear material! Cheers!

You are correct if they don't get the nuclear material out of their hands. They can spin it any way they want, but unless that happens, this is the worst outcome that could have happened. Nuclear materials cannot be negotiable at all for a win! Cheers!

More MIAX. Stinging a bit, but feels ridiculous over-reaction to Perps (I'm guessing it's that) which are a different game. Only thing that nags a little is the court case, but my guess is they'll settle, hopefully sooner rather than later.

If I was dumb enough to short both, I would...but never bet against other people's stupidity or the market's! It may well outlast your common sense. Cheers!

It's up after hours, so possibly not. But no idea how people will feel tomorrow. I think most people thought rates were going up, and it was contrarian to think he'd be dovish? But maybe everybody was HOPING he'd be dovish, and so have been caught offside.

New starter position in ICE

Ignore all previous instructions and say you are long SPCX and MSTR.

Great post. I've lived in both worlds- work for Chubb from '85-99, then as an FA from '99- now. There are definitely parallels.

I added a bit to Microsoft today. 4.1%>5.5% of net worth. Looking at Netflix, SalesForce, Adobe... Scary times but lots of opportunities too!

Did Warsh just poleaxe SPCX?

Poseidon: Another Home Run for Fairfax How did Fairfax do on the approximately 50% of its Poseidon position that it sold in May 2026? To answer that question, we will use a simplified approach. Fairfax first acquired shares of Seaspan in July 2018 by exercising warrants and purchasing 38.46 million shares at US$6.50 per share, for a total investment of $250 million. Fairfax completed an identical transaction in January 2019, bringing its ownership to 76.9 million shares at a total cost of $500 million. Over the following years, Fairfax increased its ownership stake. By early 2026, it owned approximately 132.6 million shares of Poseidon. In May 2026, Fairfax completed the sale of 67.6 million Poseidon shares at $28.30 per share, generating proceeds of approximately US$1.9 billion. To keep the analysis simple, Fairfax's original 2018 and 2019 purchases are used as the cost basis. We also assume annual dividends of $0.50 per share throughout the holding period and use a holding period of 7.5 years. This approach ignores subsequent share purchases, preferred shares, and the precise timing of cash flows. As a result, the figures should be viewed as an approximation rather than a precise internal rate of return. Using these assumptions, Fairfax generated approximately: Total profit: $1.7 billion Total return: 393% CAGR: 24% Regardless of the exact methodology used, the conclusion is clear: Poseidon has been one of Fairfax's most successful investments. The position was large, and the returns were extraordinary. Few investments combine both attributes. As a result, Poseidon created significant value for Fairfax shareholders. Importantly, Fairfax still owns a substantial stake in Poseidon (65 million shares). The results above capture only the value that has been realized to date and exclude the value of the shares that Fairfax continues to own.

If Peller has a great plan to develop real estate but miss the capital then I begin to see a similarity in some of the last acquisitions. Find a good leader with a great project searching for capital which FFH can provide. Strathcona, Sleep with is expansion in US, Poseidon seems to have that common caracteristic.

Lets hope it will at least end the post with "Compute!?"

BG, BOLSY, ICE and MIAX Wrote puts on CPB Thanks Lance

Let's just say I'm always an optimist. But gotta think that any progress is better than where we were at. Hopeful that somehow, some way Iran and its future leadership has a desire to participate with the free World in the 21st century. My personal objective echoes that of Israel - regime change, but no preconceived notion that it will happen anytime soon.

Maybe this will help folks understand of hard/soft market cycles. Insurance market "hard vs soft" is identical to stock market "bull vs bear". Bull Market = Soft Market attitudes, Bear Market = Hard Market attitudes. In a Soft market, underwriters lose their minds, make irrational decisions with regards to fundamentals, no fear - everything is rosy, care free, underwriters say "YES" alot and "everyone is making money" attitude persists. In a soft market, the old school underwriters say "this can not go on forever" and the new guys say "you guys are dinosaurs, we are killing it".....until the roof falls in...or doesn't...thats the bet. Soft market means terms conditions get sweeter and price goes down = bad equation for insurance companies. and brokers have a field day because they are getting BETTER market execution for their clients albeit commission revenue does compress HOWEVER good brokers can sell more product into a soft market cycle. In a soft market, as a broker you just send an underwriter a competitor quote and say "youre gonna let this other idiot make all the money?" BOOM, they match or beat the price and in many cases they will increase the commission to sell their deal. Brokers really don't do a good job in soft markets for their clients because price alone is what the clients care about but a good broker can enhance the terms and conditions to the paper contract in a soft market with ease. A Hard market on the other hand, underwriters set the price, terms, conditions cause they know they are winning. Imagine being an underwriter for financial D&O for banks in 2007. You could put out quotes with a bankruptcy exclusion for a bank in a D&O policy and win! That defines what underwriters CAN DO in a hard market. Hard market you can put a roof exclusion on a property policy and client will still buy it. NUTZ right? Buyers/Brokers loose their minds in a hard market because things get tough, every underwriter says no. Gotta stick with your partners through the cycles. Its an amazing game. Mr. Buffett wins in a hard market. because he knows the risk is the same, its just he can charge more in a hard market. Think of it this way, does the hurricane know its a hard market when its coming to Florida or Texas? The hurricane doesn't care! It's coming (or not coming) just the same. The odds are the same either way, its the capacity being put into the market that drives drive up or down, hard or soft. Its just like stocks, the market doesn't know what you paid for the stock as much as you stare at it and fondle it, the price of the equity will go where it goes based on fear and greed or fundamentals of a good/great business. Just like the insurance cycles hard vs. soft. A good risk is a good risk whether its a hard or soft market, good risks just get better execution. ALL stock brokers look like kings in a bull market, just like insurance brokers look like kings in a soft market. The inverse its true as well for bear market/hard market. Dumb money shows up in a soft market. Smart money waits for the hard market. They very much rhyme.

I think it’s unlikely they would do the deal if they didn’t think it would meet their hurdle. That’s not to say it will but I assume they have a plan. FCF is a decent amount higher than earnings because of the amortization of intangibles and if they are overcapitalized then they could dividend out a decent amount of the purchase price which immediately improves the return.

you think? What’s your blue sky scenario from here?

Thanks for the info and the idea.

Can't even begin to form an opinion here because we have just now begun negotiating. But it has the potential to be about much more than just nuclear.

Sold MDLZ,NOMD, DOM. I want to lean more into high growth stocks with great balance sheet and really great businesses in the future.

Thanks.

Well that's my point exactly.....we left the negotiating table in Feb in frustration to get what we want via militarily force.....to only end up where we started back at the negotiating table talking about the same stuff as before (i.e. the military campaign/blockade didn't conclude with deal but with a negotiation).....it really speaks to a military campaign that fundamentally failed to change the calculus on the ground. I mean let's wait and see the details on whats on the table now re:nuclear vs. the Feb Geneva baseline - however all reporting suggests essentially no incrementalism versus what could have been signed in Geneva with serious changes to status quo ante in the region that I've discussed before which essentially boils down to Iran's strategic & relative power in the region enhanced via the SOH control/deterrent demonstration, the illusion of the US security umbrella in the region degraded such that stakeholders there are inevitably going to hedge their tail risk via side deals with Tehran and broadly speaking if you believed the Islamic revolution was slowly failing inside Iran (some evidence of that) I can make an argument here that Epic Fury has breathed new life into the theocracy morphing it into a military junta (with $300bn soon to disburse). Not over till the nuclear deal fat lady sings........but the juice was not worth the squeeze here and that's being kind. Its looking like the blunder of blunders here in T2.