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$KW - Kennedy Wilson, this investment of Fairfax has been a curious one for me. I know Prem has high regard for William McMorrow, but $KW was a disaster to its shareholders. The shareholder return vs management pay makes my stomach churn. I wonder how Fairfax will be protecting itself in this investment? I hope they keep an eye on Pay vs Performance! $KW Performance vs SPY and Total comp of CEO over the years (Via Gemini).

Just for clarification, are we sure that the 15% return is before leverage? I always assumed that it was after leverage. That said, I'm not a fan of the deal. I suspect that Fairfax has a home-bias that isn't related to potential returns, but something else, maybe a desire to be seen as a mover and shaker in Canada. Plus, I suspect they also have a touch of the disease most value investors seem to have where the investment has to not only be a value, but also different than what everyone else is doing. Like it's less important to maximize expected returns than it is to look innovative while doing it. All that said, I think it'll probably be a fine investment.

Lol ya, two middling soccer teams and two nations that are perpetually at war.

did they do that with toys r us selling of the RE

Because other than Ourkid8 and Cubs, no one gives two shits about both country's leaders! Cheers!

Agreed Trump wants to go home, just not so sure that Israel/Hezbolah feel the agreement also applies to them. Hard to imagine they aren't going to be tossing grenades. SD

I believe this is the first time, that a country at war with a host country (Iran - USA) plays in a World Cup. Funny that nobody talks about it.

The odd lots podcast goes through the oil shock that mostly occurred in Asia. a few facts (from recollection) - China’s oil consumption went down by almost 10% and in addition, they have huge inventory which they draped down. This is the reason they could reduce their imports so much. Poorer counties without much storage (Thailand, Indonesia, India) did run into shortages so demand destruction took place. Ny guess is that oil prices are too low relative to where we are at because the storages need to be refilled and thwarts a lot of barrels. I also think some counties learned a lesson and will build out. more storage infrastructure and fill it up, but that’s longer term.

Well theres also this nonsense from oil bulls about how "Trump talked down oil prices"....ahhhh....thats not how it works. Trump talking, or your boner inducing 5-10% spikes on nothing but rumors....ultimately have ZERO to do with the actual supply and demand that oil is predicated on. So no, Trump didnt "talk down" prices, supply and demand when translated in the real world, proved you suckers just bid it up way too high speculating on your own conspiracy theories.

I think you are correct in identifying challenges with aging, sclerotic leaders. He’s not going to change for the better, and as he ages, instead of getting lazy, he just loses whatever filters and checks on his bad impulses that he might possibly ever had.

He is a master negotiator.

Hey if the Gulf States want to pay Iran $300B to rearm and develop nukes again - that would be pretty damn stupid.....but what do I know. If Iran needs $300B to rebuild - must have been some horrific damage done to their military!

A pyrrhic victory for oil bulls who were diligently counting storage levels. Based on everything I've seen and heard Trump and his team say over the last few days, there's basically zero appetite for any escalation with Iran if things don't work out during the 60 days.

UK vs Croatia, what a game!

Well so far he did too! 200 times more than Obama...plus U.S. soldiers killed. No nukes otherwise a Trump rebuke! No nukes otherwise a Trump rebuke! No nukes otherwise a Trump rebuke! Not as good a cheer as: Show the files, you pedophile! Show the files, you pedophile! But it will have to do. Cheers!

Adds to CRM and CMCSA

How about we just pay them to build their nuclear weapons like Obama did....

With both Recipe and Sleep, they levered them up on acquisition to reduce the equity investment up front. A different way of doing that would be to sell non-core assets. This increases the return especially if those assets weren’t generating income.

Germany looks dangerous to me! Need to see them play more, but their touch was terrific and they were constantly a threat. Cheers!

You guys can make fun all you want, but it would be an absolute royal fuck up by Trump unless nuclear materials are no longer in Iranian hands. There would be no result worse in Trump's life other than his association with Epstein. So it's only a win with no nukes, no nuclear material! Cheers!

You are correct if they don't get the nuclear material out of their hands. They can spin it any way they want, but unless that happens, this is the worst outcome that could have happened. Nuclear materials cannot be negotiable at all for a win! Cheers!

More MIAX. Stinging a bit, but feels ridiculous over-reaction to Perps (I'm guessing it's that) which are a different game. Only thing that nags a little is the court case, but my guess is they'll settle, hopefully sooner rather than later.

If I was dumb enough to short both, I would...but never bet against other people's stupidity or the market's! It may well outlast your common sense. Cheers!

It's up after hours, so possibly not. But no idea how people will feel tomorrow. I think most people thought rates were going up, and it was contrarian to think he'd be dovish? But maybe everybody was HOPING he'd be dovish, and so have been caught offside.