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Not disagreeing with the gist of what they are saying here, but the portion of the thesis referencing the fact that the stock has outperformed peer group YTD is, IMHO, meaningless in terms of whether or not it's a good investment now. -Crip

EVO, CROX.

bought even more STO:EVO and a little more CABO

The polar opposite analyst of Brett Horn appears to be National Bank's Jaeme Gloyn. New price target $2200 Cdn "Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. ( FFH-T -1.16%decrease ) with an “outperform” rating and $2,200 target, up from $2,100. Average: $1,995.65. Analyst: “While one of the strongest performers in our coverage year-to-date, up 44 per cent vs. the TSX Financials index up 20 per cent, we continue to see upside for FFH. With Q4-23 results FFH upgraded its annual operating income guidance by over 30 per cent to $4-billion, consisting of $2 billion from interest and dividend income, $1.2-billion in underwriting profit and $750-million from associates and non-insurance. Two quarters later, the conservatism in this guidance has become clear. As of Q2, run-rate interest and dividend income has already reached $2.2-billion, plus underwriting income and associates and non-insurance are tracking above guidance. Strong H1 results and deployment of excess capital to drive ROE accretion increase our confidence that operating ROE in the mid-teens is sustainable and a valuation re-rate is warranted.”

That the immigrant population poses a very real security threat means Europe will (eventually) do something about it. If they were not, no matter the net drain, it'd be much, much harder to do anything. It'll be messy. And still leaves Europe with a demographic problem, of course.

Very good! SD

CASH, TBBK - best in class BaaS banks. Heading to 3%+ ROAs & 30%+ ROEs which is unheard of in the US banking sector. Strong repurchasers of common shares, to boot! Bill

A Bitcoin Bank would exist 'cause the founders need to money launder; and they cannot put up the CME margin to hold BTC options or futures directly. Deposit your BTC with us for interest! (chequing account), so that we can margin against it and use the bank to either buy more BTC, &/or drive up the price ( another Tether) !!! Thing is ... a tamer operating version of Bitcoin Bank already exists; and it's called MSTR ... damn! The 2nd/3rd level BTC payment markets need to focus on the 2nd/3rd world, vs the tech community. In these worlds, USD is used for payment 'cause it retains its value against local inflation, and USD cash is accepted by all (black markets), as cash is untraceable. The thing is that at scale, one needs bales of USD bills .. along with the associated organisation and security. 2nd/3rd level BTC payment markets become useful when they can displace USD bill use in these markets... and in part, is why there are all kinds of dire CB warnings around the pending collapse of USD. SD

A decade? There's at least a 50-50 chance the effect's too instable to scale (in popular lingo: "the universe is conspiring against us").

Some others not already mentioned: Thomasville Bancshares (THVB) Citizens Bancshares (CZBS) United Bancorporation of Alabama (UBAB)

AP, Fox, and NBC have to call the race to this contract to materialize. Statements like "leading the race" or "likely to win" is not the same as "call the race." So it doesn't make sense for this to be the reason for the odds.

This is a major problem for the West.

Many politicians genuinely don’t understand why America has done so well. I saw someone on Twitter from the UK arguing that a person making the equivalent of $87k a year, which is $64k after tax, was ‘rich’ and they shouldn’t complain about tax rises. Rachel Reeves, our new chancellor in the UK, announced today on Twitter that she chooses investment in the UK over decline…. Paradoxically it’s almost certain that her budget will raise tax on investors. The immigration non-policy in Europe is not helping because in many cases it’s just large scale state dependents. Some European country, the Danes I think, published their data on the contribution of migrants to their economy by ethnicity. Many migrants, particularly from Africa and the Middle East where a large net drain to the economy over their lives. So yeh, I’m fairly pessimistic about Europe. We desperately need a return to common sense and what worked before.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2500.0#msg34211 It will still be censorship-resistant; the world was never engineered to give freedom to everyone. By the way, there are many opportunities to use the protocol to achieve sovereignty—things like the Lightning Network, eCash (Cashu), and mint independence. Calle, a developer with a PhD in Physics, is working on projects like this. https://github.com/cashubtc

From the same article - "For the U.S., which has spent over two decades cultivating closer ties with India, Mr. Trudeau’s showboating approach to a sensitive issue is a textbook case of how not to handle an important partner."

As soon as AP, Fox and NBC mention that Trump is "leading the race" or "likely to win" as votes as collected, they can resolve the result to "Yes". That's why the odds on Trump are much higher.

I'll be the tester. I bet on Kamala on Polymarket. 2 decent bottles worth of wine that might turn into 6 just in time for Thanksgiving and New Year's. No other poll is showing her this off. This might also motivate her base to come out and vote. The r/r is there. I'll let you all know if Polymarket fails on their smart contract end of the deal.

Gee, and I thought that millions of Muslim immigrants + insane amount of regulation is a winning recipe!

Yawn...

Consensus FTM EPS went up first and then retraced a bit. I wonder if that’s all it’s referring to. I think the stock will rally after earnings as the index arbs will be more aggressive after that risk is out of the way.

This what you get with auto generated AI news. each shift in a single stat generates a comment not an analysis Cheers

Chubb just reported. Results seem very good to me.

The title is a bit misleading - it is the consensus that is deteriorating, not the fundamentals. And it would make sense that, with interest rates coming down, the consensus view of the future might deteriorate. The question is, is that anticipated deterioration already in the share price, or not? Their finding suggests that analysts' worries tend to overcorrect the share price leading to short term gains (in the following month, singular). Most of us probably don't care very much what the price does in the next month, so this finding is not really relevant. Decreasing interest rates will be a brake on interest income from current investments, but there is no reason to think that there will be any decrease in earnings from other sources like underwriting and earnings from consolidated companies with >50% ownership) like Recipe, Grivalia, Sleep Country), in associates ($8b in 20-50% stakes like Eurobank, Poseidon and Quess) and the in common and preferred stock holdings (~$10b in <20% stakes like Commercial International Bank, Occidental Petroleum, Mytilineos and Kennedy Wilson). And as the ~$4b in earnings for the next few years roll in, a lot of them will be going to increase the $44b bond portfolio, too, so interest rates may well be lower in a few years, but those rates will be applied to a much larger fixed income portfolio, so lower rates in a few years don't even necessarily mean lower total interest income.

Has anyone made money following Jim Grant?

@Charlie & @rogermunibond, Personally, I think Jim Grant in the above doesn't really hit the disc with this assessment. The calculation for Berkshire is just so different on 'riding and rolling US Treasury Bills' than for almost everyone else, because - no matter what your view may be on it - a material part of those T-Bills can be argued to be financed by insurance float. Insurance float held by the undisputed world champion in generating, holding and maintaining insurance float. It is a low margin business, yes, so it requires scale. And scale there is, indeed.