what are you selling today?

[Gregmal]

Bottom line is that they’ve clearly exhausted a lot of goodwill with the investor community. What people seemed to like was fairly straight forward and really not too different from what they’d been doing. And now, well, they don’t actually think their stock is cheap, don’t have any interest in returning cash to shareholders, and wanna go on a building binge into a period of economic uncertainty. It’s gone from a fairly unique gem, to a dime a dozen smallcap, imo. 

[thepupil]

a 20% peak to trough drawdown solves a lot of that from a risk/reward standpoint. prices in much less perfect execution. room for things to go wrong / hard to lose money...if you think they got dumb, then that changes things...but back to what people are selling today. 

 

 

 

 

[Marco Van Basten]

4 minutes ago, thepupil said:

a 20% peak to trough drawdown solves a lot of that from a risk/reward standpoint. prices in much less perfect execution. room for things to go wrong / hard to lose money...if you think they got dumb, then that changes things...but back to what people are selling today. 

 

 

 

 

Look.  They have a gem in the aggregates royalties business, so if they cared about the shareholders, you liquidate all of your assets except for royalties, and then do a stock for stock deal with Vulcan or you pay out all the cash to shareholders, and put the royalties into a liquidating trust with minimal expenses.  Instead you have millions of overhead and development projects that are used to justify the overhead.  

[thepupil]

1 minute ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Look.  They have a gem in the aggregates royalties business, so if they cared about the shareholders, you liquidate all of your assets except for royalties, and then do a stock for stock deal with Vulcan or you pay out all the cash to shareholders, and put the royalties into a liquidating trust with minimal expenses.  Instead you have millions of overhead and development projects that are used to justify the overhead.  

 

we'll have to agree to disagree. 

[Gregmal]

18 minutes ago, thepupil said:

a 20% peak to trough drawdown solves a lot of that from a risk/reward standpoint. prices in much less perfect execution. room for things to go wrong / hard to lose money...if you think they got dumb, then that changes things...but back to what people are selling today. 

 

 

 

 

Not really because it's a credibility issue. Nobody whom owned at $55-60(post split 27-32 let's call it) did so believing this was worth $35 or that management would allocate like it was worth $35. Frankly, at $25, I think they'll still be too pigheaded on the development to even bother repurchasing. Especially since they'll committed to such massive projects. 

[thepupil]

3 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Not really because it's a credibility issue. Nobody whom owned at $55-60(post split 27-32 let's call it) did so believing this was worth $35 or that management would allocate like it was worth $35. Frankly, at $25, I think they'll still be too pigheaded on the development to even bother repurchasing. Especially since they'll committed to such massive projects. 

 

maybe I'm missing something here.

 

The equity required for their pipeline of projects roughly approximates their cash balance. it's spread across a few things. they don't appear to be betting the company on any one thing.

 

on the other hand, I don't see any excess capital with which to engage in large scale repurchases, nor would I want them to do so.

 

if they see good devs that will earn high returns. go do it. we've seen them do this successfully many times (and whiff majorly once), while building the company into a real company. 

 

again,  idon't think anyone's gonna  change anyone's mind here. but i feel like we're looking at different things. 

[Gregmal]

6 minutes ago, thepupil said:

 

maybe I'm missing something here.

 

The equity required for their pipeline of projects roughly approximates their cash balance. it's spread across a few things. they don't appear to be betting the company on any one thing.

 

on the other hand, I don't see any excess capital with which to engage in large scale repurchases, nor would I want them to do so.

 

if they see good devs that will earn high returns. go do it. we've seen them do this successfully many times (and whiff majorly once), while building the company into a real company. 

 

again,  idon't think anyone's gonna  change anyone's mind here. but i feel like we're looking at different things. 

Didnt they sell their industrial in 2018 on the basis of harvesting assets and basically calling out a price that was too good to pass up? It seems like over time they have now just decided they dont want to operate like that anymore and are just gonna build, build, build. Like I get theyve generally been decent at development, but frankly in todays market, its not like we need to be swinging for the fences on CRE projects.

 

I dont think its any coincidence since they more or less loudly proclaimed their desire to do this, the once fortress viewed company that would shrug off most market panics has now massively underperformed to the downside. I was joking at the time but at $30 per from their announcement, even super sensitive macro stuff like MGM has been more resilient. And again, if Im wrong so be it, but also like I mentioned at $30 when I sold, if folks feel different I certainly dont see them lining up to buy any shares here. Theyve lost the confidence of their base IMO...which aint great for a company of this profile. 

 

 

Edited August 7, 2025 by Gregmal

[RiskAdjReturn]

26 minutes ago, thepupil said:

 

we'll have to agree to disagree. 

I never understood fixation on this business/stock. the ole sotp play, without proper weight given to fact its just guys betting with capital and without recognizing burden of SG&A. same goes for alot of "nav" logic around here on small reits. often a job for a team...

[Gregmal]

Theres also just this bizarre and contradictory bullet smack dab in the middle of their current situation that really kills the "theyre patient and opportunistic allocators" theme for me. Because patient and opportunistic and then "we're going in heavy on industrial space in Orlando"....doesnt at all work. 

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, thepupil said:

from my perspective, they're more or less doing what they've always done. 

 

they made a bad investment in Bryant Street. Otherwise they are long term / development oriented RE firm w/ a legacy position in a very cash generative and valueable aggregate royalty asset. 

 

after selling in low $30's and high $20's I think it's becoming compelling oncemore at around $25. 

 

as discussed ad nauseum, I think their NAV ranges are reasonable and you're approaching 70 cents on the lower end which seems like a nice entry. 

 

you also have the benefit of 2 more Q's of DOGE impact (or lack thereof). I still think it may come, but I think the worst of the downside nodes have been eliminated. 

I agree. One can argue if what thy have been doing is a smart strategy but there is nothing new. They now try to develop warehouses and an industrial properties in Florida from the ground up, similar to the assemblage they sold to Blackstone a couple year ago. Same thing they have been doing for decades now.

[Spekulatius]

Sold $HCC. Made a decent quick gain on that one.

[This2ShallPass]

Sold PDD and BABA (decided retail is not for me). Needed cash and also wanted to reduce my overall holdings. In China, I have Tencent (Prosus) as my main holding and a smaller Baidu position.

[Saluki]

Sold the last of my TAYD. If part of their business is exports and the other part is reliant on military contracts, both of which are unpredictable because of the current administration, I'll take my profits and move onto something boring. 

[Eng12345]

DSGR - for the smallest of gains after two years. Dead money for too long. 

 

After really thinking about it - it is just too hard to fully analyze. They are rolling up many small private distributors, and although I think that idea has merit it is too difficult for me to know if the purchases are accretive. Combined with one major controlling shareholder (Luther King Capital Management) it is easy to envision scenarios where minorities are taken advantage of. Honestly, with LKCM owning 78% I'm not even sure why they are public. Well actually I do know - just so they can underwrite their debt. 

 

That combined with the larger macro trends driven by the current administration that will continue to make the distribution business harder I'd rather have the dry powder. 

 

A few weeks ago I was underwater by 20-25% and wanting to get out so I'll take my opportunity now.  

 

 

I know not many on the board were interested in this one, but writing this all out for my own posterity. 

[Saluki]

Sold the remaining few shares I had in PETS. On a SOTP it looks valuable, but when the CFO and CEO resign and you can't trust the numbers, then it's time to move on to easier fish.

 

Trimmed a few shares of KRKNF. No real reason, just trying to keep it at the weighting I'm comfortable with. 

[Rainier]

20 hours ago, Saluki said:

Sold the remaining few shares I had in PETS. On a SOTP it looks valuable, but when the CFO and CEO resign and you can't trust the numbers, then it's time to move on to easier fish.

 

Trimmed a few shares of KRKNF. No real reason, just trying to keep it at the weighting I'm comfortable with. 

Same for me with PETS after management change announcement. I sold my shares but kept a very small exposure in long dated call option.

Edited August 14, 2025 by Rainier

[This2ShallPass]

Sold 5% of my Eurobank. I was hesitant to interrupt the compounding machine, but decided to trim a little given the strong performance (want to bolster my cash position).

[villainx]

14 hours ago, Rainier said:

Some for me with PETS after management change announcement. I sold my shares but kept a very small exposure in long dated call option.

 

20 hours ago, Saluki said:

Sold the remaining few shares I had in PETS. On a SOTP it looks valuable, but when the CFO and CEO resign and you can't trust the numbers, then it's time to move on to easier fish.

 

 

Interesting.  If the business is still viable, cleaning house was the right choice though.  Maybe getting someone more seasoned to fix and prep for sale?  I guess the business being viable is the thing.

 

Then again, maybe it's my bias for selling losers.

 

[Saluki]

17 minutes ago, villainx said:

 

 

 

Interesting.  If the business is still viable, cleaning house was the right choice though.  Maybe getting someone more seasoned to fix and prep for sale?  I guess the business being viable is the thing.

 

Then again, maybe it's my bias for selling losers.

 

 

Well, if it was actually breaking even, then the cash and real estate looks attractive because the business is worth something and the rest of the assets are free. But if the numbers are fudged, then it's a melting ice cube. No way to tell until they restate earnings and you get a clearer picture. 

[Malmqky]

Sold out of lower conviction positions and trackers to buy more CROX.

[sleepydragon]

Sold out my ASML

[Saluki]

Sold out of STNG. Sold the few shares I bought of Novo while I studied it. 

[This2ShallPass]

Sold a few this past week. I always had 10+% cash and recently got close to zero, replenishing and also plan to increase my JOE stake in the near future.

• AIV full exit (smaller position, upside limited from here)
• NE / VAL full exit (I got into this industry 6 mos back. CCs this quarter show whitespace / weakness continues into 2027. Dayrates were mid-high $400s in Q1 and are low $400s now)
• Eurobank (sold some to buy more Tencent. Both are my top 5 positions, just rebalancing)

*I usually only report buys and sells in my core account here. I have a separate "income" account that I'm experimenting with this year. Most holdings are put protected and I still have AIV, NE and VAL there.

[sleepydragon]

Sold asml, tsm, orcl, and reduced etha

[Saluki]

Sold a small position in DK I had which had gone up a lot in a few months. I also sold the POWWP preferred that I had in my taxable account. I forgot that it had a resting sell order so that when it traded close to par today, it got exerciced. It's a trading sardine so if it drops back again, I'll probably reload. I kept the shares in my retirement account because a tax free 9% is like a taxable 12% dividend.