What are you buying today?

[Junior R]

APO

[coffeecaninvestor]

18 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Why?  WIth all due respect, I don't get the attraction.  Thank you.

I’m treating it more as an alternative to putting cash SGOV which i already own a good amount of. Dividend is about equal but you have inflation protection. They are investing a ton into the grid going forward so over time earnings should grow. Trades at a slight discount to XLU so possibly could re-rate if they execute and things go in its favor. I don’t have a ton of ideas and I pulled money from S&P500 for this idea so I preferred it over the S&P at current prices. 

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, coffeecaninvestor said:

NGG

They have high leverage and imo are poorly managed. I think you can find better utility stocks but frankly haven’t looked much.

 

I owned it in the past for similar reasons and won’t buy it back unless it become stupidly cheap for some reason.

[Spekulatius]

Bought a little more MAA for my IRA dividend portfolio. I recently added PSA as well and CPT a while ago.

 

I also added a bit of FDS and FI.

Edited October 3, 2025 by Spekulatius

[coffeecaninvestor]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

They have high leverage and imo are poorly managed. I think you can find better utility stocks but frankly haven’t looked much.

 

I owned it in the past for similar reasons and won’t buy it back unless it become stupidly cheap for some reason.

I am hoping the change in CEO helps but yes the stock has been poor.  
 

I don’t follow utilities much but this struck me as an odd ball utility since it is an ADR with a large US monopoly so probably not on too many investors radar, but has this huge growth capex coming. So yes it did a big rights offering and raised some debt, but they should get a regulated return on that investment. If it wasn’t for this potential growth I probably wouldn’t have invested, but there’s some upside there now that doesn’t seem to be factored into its current multiple. But I could be dead wrong and hopefully the downside is limited. 

[Marco Van Basten]

4 hours ago, coffeecaninvestor said:

I’m treating it more as an alternative to putting cash SGOV which i already own a good amount of. Dividend is about equal but you have inflation protection. They are investing a ton into the grid going forward so over time earnings should grow. Trades at a slight discount to XLU so possibly could re-rate if they execute and things go in its favor. I don’t have a ton of ideas and I pulled money from S&P500 for this idea so I preferred it over the S&P at current prices. 

So I generally dislike utilities, and NG in particular given the management, rights issue and jurisdiction.  I would check out AEP if I were you.  It seems it has tremendous opportunity in transmission (FERC regulated).  I don't own it, but if you like utilities, that's the one I'd take a look.  If you need ideas, take a look at AMRZ/ALC/RYAN - I own all three.  

[Spekulatius]

I am using PSA, MAA, CPT (Reits) for a similar purpose in my IRA‘s. Reits have a worse tax treatment in taxable accounts but in tax deferred account they are great.

[coffeecaninvestor]

36 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

So I generally dislike utilities, and NG in particular given the management, rights issue and jurisdiction.  I would check out AEP if I were you.  It seems it has tremendous opportunity in transmission (FERC regulated).  I don't own it, but if you like utilities, that's the one I'd take a look.  If you need ideas, take a look at AMRZ/ALC/RYAN - I own all three.  

I don’t really like utilities per se it just seems like way to hedge some of the inflation risk I was taking with ST treasury bonds, and still get market like returns on if everything works out with.limited down side risk. Thanks I will look at AEP! I’m sure the existing share holders were pissed at the rights issue and dividend cut. Half the business in the UK is a little worry some to with the currency risk. 

 

I started a small position a few days ago in AMRZ after taking a look. it looks very interesting. BAH and NVO as well. 

[Marco Van Basten]

1 hour ago, coffeecaninvestor said:

I don’t really like utilities per se it just seems like way to hedge some of the inflation risk I was taking with ST treasury bonds, and still get market like returns on if everything works out with.limited down side risk. Thanks I will look at AEP! I’m sure the existing share holders were pissed at the rights issue and dividend cut. Half the business in the UK is a little worry some to with the currency risk. 

 

I started a small position a few days ago in AMRZ after taking a look. it looks very interesting. BAH and NVO as well. 

Utilities are probably the worst way to hedge inflation.  You have historical PPE and you are allowed say a 10% ROE, and in a period of rising inflation, your "real" earnings are getting eroded sharply and regulators won't approve rate hikes to get you to a 15% ROE to compensate for inflation increase. 

[coffeecaninvestor]

8 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Utilities are probably the worst way to hedge inflation.  You have historical PPE and you are allowed say a 10% ROE, and in a period of rising inflation, your "real" earnings are getting eroded sharply and regulators won't approve rate hikes to get you to a 15% ROE to compensate for inflation increase. 

I does seem like they can raise rates reasonably, but probably not sharply. A utility reminds me a lot of a house. You lay out a ton of cash to build it with fixed rate long term debt, and then you just basically have to maintain it after that. This strikes me as an OK asset during lower inflationary times. Asset light is  the way to go if you can find one cheap enough. 
 

but I’ve thought more about the poor management. Particularly because of Vicky at OXY and how she’s destroying value there. It’s probably not wise to bet on national grids management has proven they can run a monopoly poorly how well should I expect them to do this massive buildout. 

Edited October 4, 2025 by coffeecaninvestor

[Spekulatius]

Being a  customer with them is when I moved to Long Island. They have separate accounts for each state. I also was customer for Gas and for Power as well in MA and those were separate accounts as well. I can confidently say that IT wasn’t their strength.

 

I guess when they rolled up all these utilities, they never bothered to integrate anything.

Edited October 4, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Junior R]

looking to start a position in OWL if it drops under $16

[Marco Van Basten]

2 hours ago, coffeecaninvestor said:

I does seem like they can raise rates reasonably, but probably not sharply. A utility reminds me a lot of a house. You lay out a ton of cash to build it with fixed rate long term debt, and then you just basically have to maintain it after that. This strikes me as an OK asset during lower inflationary times. Asset light is  the way to go if you can find one cheap enough. 
 

but I’ve thought more about the poor management. Particularly because of Vicky at OXY and how she’s destroying value there. It’s probably not wise to bet on national grids management has proven they can run a monopoly poorly how well should I expect them to do this massive buildout. 

No, I disagree.  Utilities' cash flow declines sharply in real terms during inflationary times since their earnings do not grow with inflation.  You need regulators to approve high rate increases and that is politically unpopular.  As opposed to insurance company which can leave the state, utilities cannot move PPE.  

[Spekulatius]

14 hours ago, coffeecaninvestor said:

I does seem like they can raise rates reasonably, but probably not sharply. A utility reminds me a lot of a house. You lay out a ton of cash to build it with fixed rate long term debt, and then you just basically have to maintain it after that. This strikes me as an OK asset during lower inflationary times. Asset light is  the way to go if you can find one cheap enough. 
 

but I’ve thought more about the poor management. Particularly because of Vicky at OXY and how she’s destroying value there. It’s probably not wise to bet on national grids management has proven they can run a monopoly poorly how well should I expect them to do this massive buildout. 

 Other datapoint is that utility power rates in New England are already very high and receiving more and more backslash from the public. I think over the last 10 years the price of power in NE has increased more than in Europe

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU011072610

2025 is not in the chart and has seen another jump based on my last bills before I sold my house in MA. This imo does not bode well for NGG ability to push through price increases with regulators there.

Edited October 5, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Mephistopheles]

https://chicago.suntimes.com/immigration/2025/10/01/massive-immigration-raid-on-chicago-apartment-building-leaves-residents-reeling-i-feel-defeated
 

These ICE raids sound similar to Nazi Germany

[Spekulatius]

25 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:

https://chicago.suntimes.com/immigration/2025/10/01/massive-immigration-raid-on-chicago-apartment-building-leaves-residents-reeling-i-feel-defeated
 

These ICE raids sound similar to Nazi Germany

Are these not massive lawsuits waiting to happen? Imagine being dragged out in zip ties by masked ICE intruders and you are  US citizen and they can’t prove anything. You can claim injury, emotional distress, property damage etc. I can see this resulting in hundreds of million $ lawsuits if true.

Edited October 4, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Mephistopheles]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Are these not massive lawsuits waiting to happen? Imagine being dragged out in zip ties by masked ICE intruders and you are  US citizen and they can’t prove anything. You can claim injury, emotional distress, property damage etc. I can see this resulting in hundreds of million $ lawsuits if true.

Similar stuff happened in LA. Are the courts even effective anymore? 

[fareastwarriors]

Add a bit of $amrz

[Mephistopheles]

2 hours ago, DooDiligence said:

 

Visiting Chicago ATM. The people are fabulous! Kristi Noem is a cunt.

+1

 

also I meant to post this in the politics forum. Hopefully Sanjeev can move it over.

 

 

[DooDiligence]

Just now, Mephistopheles said:

+1

 

also I meant to post this in the politics forum. Hopefully Sanjeev can move it over.

 

 

My bad too (deleted). I’m on my phone and thought it was the politics thread too. Chicago is still a great city!

[Luke]

Bought a tracker for BYD

[Paarslaars]

On 10/3/2025 at 9:19 PM, Junior R said:

APO

Same.

 

Also small position in some IREN leaps, who knows.  

[Junior R]

Just now, Paarslaars said:

Same.

 

Also small position in some IREN leaps, who knows.  

APO Mark and team know how to manage private credit so this drop is over blown 

[Paarslaars]

9 minutes ago, Junior R said:

APO Mark and team know how to manage private credit so this drop is over blown 

Yeah I kept looking for reasons for this drop, can't all just be because Pauline left?

[Junior R]

34 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Yeah I kept looking for reasons for this drop, can't all just be because Pauline left?

No due to First Brands’ Fallout from another PE firm...but Mark and Team know how to pick which private credit to do ...They also do use margin of safety ....this why your seeing stocks like APO/ARES/OWL down vs CG, BLK ect