InsecurityAnalysis Posted January 17, 2024 Posted January 17, 2024 56 minutes ago, Saluki said: Other than the Korea competitor alleging anticompetitive pricing, why do you think it's down over 10% in two days? I see some negative articles about North Korea saber rattling and China, but nothing specific to CPNG that would justify this. I'm still adding in very small bites. I have a medium position and I had planned just to sit on it for another year, but sometimes I see the price drop on a stock and I feel like I'm watching my girlfriend at a shoe sale. Only other thing seen from my news feed was one downgrade from buy to hold. But nothing other than that...
LC Posted January 17, 2024 Posted January 17, 2024 49 minutes ago, Williams406 said: Still more Pantheon. Could you share the current status summary? I stopped following about a year ago, I wasn't super impressed with management.
Spekulatius Posted January 17, 2024 Posted January 17, 2024 3 hours ago, Saluki said: Other than the Korea competitor alleging anticompetitive pricing, why do you think it's down over 10% in two days? I see some negative articles about North Korea saber rattling and China, but nothing specific to CPNG that would justify this. I'm still adding in very small bites. I have a medium position and I had planned just to sit on it for another year, but sometimes I see the price drop on a stock and I feel like I'm watching my girlfriend at a shoe sale. No idea, but an analyst from Citigroup downgraded the stock according to my newsfeed from IB. I typically ignore brokerage downgrades, I don’t think it’s something to fret about, unless they really present some new facts.
Williams406 Posted January 17, 2024 Posted January 17, 2024 12 minutes ago, LC said: Could you share the current status summary? I stopped following about a year ago, I wasn't super impressed with management. From my post on the PANR thread back in December: "Anyone still following this? Quite a lot has transpired since year end 2022. David Hobbs (Telemachus) joined the BOD in March and is now Executive Chairman. He is on every webcast and Pantheon needed his communication skills. His active role in the business and ownership stake lend a lot of credibility in my mind. Just last week the company revealed it added 66,000 acres to the 193,000 it previously held. The acreage additions are essentially extensions to both Kodiak and Ahpun which Pantheon had proprietary seismic data on that management estimates adds 500 million net recoverable barrels to Kodiak and 300 million barrels to Ahpun. $2 million up-front lease cost. Netherland Sewell issued an independent expert report recently on Kodiak (one billion barrels of recoverable oil) and one should be issued 1H 2024 on Ahpun. The Kodiak IER will be revised to incorporate the new acreage--the one billion barrel estimate pre-dated the recent acquisition. Pantheon's financing strategy entails using vendor financing and reserve-based lending a few wells in to developing Ahpun with a goal of minimizing equity dilution. If Pantheon succeeds in lining up development capital this way, hard to see this staying at $270 million market cap. My initial purchases got hit hard by the sell off late last year (premature accumulation) but I added very aggressively in the $0.15-$0.20 range (PTHRF, US $) and made a material add at 0.25 post lease announcement last week. I like the set up here." I think a lot of prospective shareholders dropped off this one around the same time and I understand that--speculative play, short attack, confusing communication around the production test results...Hobbs is now the front-facing company rep. A week ago Hobbs did an interview with Chuck Yates that was excellent. Search youtube for "David Hobbs Chuck Yates". Worth an hour if you have some interest. Key catalyst would be the announcement of a financing package for Ahpun that is attractive with minimal equity dilution, which could come at any time. If we don't get that in the first quarter, the risk that potential vendors see the data differently than the Pantheon team rises, which would be a big negative. I'll be very surprised if we don't see at least 2 billion barrels of estimated recoverable resource in official IER's by the end of the 1H 2024 as a base case.
Spekulatius Posted January 17, 2024 Posted January 17, 2024 9 minutes ago, value_hunter said: added KW The leverage on $KW is bonkers. I owned some bonds a while ago and even those seem hairy. They are yielding ~9.3% now (4.75% 2030) down from ~11%. Not for me.
value_hunter Posted January 17, 2024 Posted January 17, 2024 52 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: The leverage on $KW is bonkers. I owned some bonds a while ago and even those seem hairy. They are yielding ~9.3% now (4.75% 2030) down from ~11%. Not for me. Debts are 100% fixed or hedged. Plus Fairfax won't let it go under.
Spekulatius Posted January 17, 2024 Posted January 17, 2024 1 hour ago, value_hunter said: Debts are 100% fixed or hedged. Plus Fairfax won't let it go under. Sounds like you have done your research. Hedges are limited in duration so how well KW does depend on the interest rate trajectory. If Fairfax bails them out, they are going to charge and arm and a leg and the equity will suffer.
Spekulatius Posted January 18, 2024 Posted January 18, 2024 Added a bit more $HUM today on today’s earnings warning. I am not pleased but it is what it is. Thats why I like to take smaller positions first, because it gives some room to buy more on weakness. FWIW, this one is in the penalty box until there is further clarity on cost trends this year.
Saluki Posted January 18, 2024 Posted January 18, 2024 I thought I was done with buying OXY, but at $55, I had to pick up a few shares. I'm tempted to overallocate and just sell some higher basis shares in a month for the tax loss harvesting.
E. Nashton Posted January 18, 2024 Posted January 18, 2024 Bought some more OXY and re-started a position in CNQ.
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