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BAC Capital Plan Approved...JPM & Goldman Flagged


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Does anyone think Moynihan asked Mr. Buffett his thoughts prior to submitting their plan?  I hope so.

 

As it relates to pension funds, we don't have one investment policy statement from a client that says a stock has to pay a dividend.  We certainly have a lot of other goofy restrictions, but whether or not B of A's dividend is at some arbitrary level shouldn't matter.

 

I agree with Sanjeev that share repurchases sub TBV are more attractive.

 

After reading the press release I got the feeling that Buffett may have advised Moynihan.  Buffett said he was in Charlotte to meet with BAC employees a short time ago.  I can imagine him bringing a copy of 'Outsiders' and handing it to Moynihan.

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Some of you guys are way too rational. The market won't care about a small little buyback and resulting value accretion. It is way too mathematical, way too logical.

 

If you want to make big returns in the stock market like Ericopoly then you need stocks to move up fast. Sell, then buy a cheaper one. Then repeat again. Not to go up at decent returns over the long haul. If I was running a business I would buyback shares too, but here what counts to a degree is Mr. Market impression.

 

That is why I am disappointed here. The stock will go nowhere now until earnings emerge. There is nothing else before the next round other than upside on settlements which I think are likely the opposite.

 

Cardboard

 

That summarizes my position nicely.  I want the stock to go up fast, or I wouldn't have bought Leaps.  I like to see a company succeed but I have bought all the stock I will ever buy and now I want that share price up.  Raising the dividend to 0.50 instead of the buybacks would have pushed the stock above $15.00 quickly, possibly even up to $20.00.  Now we wait another year which means another cycle of leaps, and the frictional costs involved.

 

That's the risk with LEAPs...there is always a time arbitrage involved and hell of a lot shorter than the warrants.  Do you still hold any common or warrants?  Or did you switch it all to LEAPs?  Cheers!

 

Sanjeev,

 

Do you concur with Eric's assessment that tarp warrants in longer run (yr 3 to 6) are losers game? And, what are your view on bac warrants going forward ?

 

Thanks.

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Hi Sanjeev,

 

You got it man! Baller in Vegas... Didn't even know about that term! A night at the Bellagio in their suites would be already awesome!

 

Check out the Black Card Amex feature on their site or the Centurion card. That is the right match for Ericopoly!

 

Cardboard

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That summarizes my position nicely.  I want the stock to go up fast, or I wouldn't have bought Leaps.  I like to see a company succeed but I have bought all the stock I will ever buy and now I want that share price up.  Raising the dividend to 0.50 instead of the buybacks would have pushed the stock above $15.00 quickly, possibly even up to $20.00.  Now we wait another year which means another cycle of leaps, and the frictional costs involved.

 

That's the risk with LEAPs...there is always a time arbitrage involved and hell of a lot shorter than the warrants.  Do you still hold any common or warrants?  Or did you switch it all to LEAPs?  Cheers!

 

Sanjeev,

 

Do you concur with Eric's assessment that tarp warrants in longer run (yr 3 to 6) are losers game? And, what are your view on bac warrants going forward ?

 

Thanks.

 

I know the question wasn't ask to me, but I am very comfortable with the warrants.  Eric is a smart guy but options are not for the faint of heart.  I believe many on this board may be following him out of greed and do not understand the risks involved. 

 

IMO, the TARP warrants offer excellent returns if held to maturity and the economy resembles any sense of normalcy.  Six years is an eternity for some investors.  Judging by the low expectations on the other thread regarding the share price in 2019, the ultimate return on the BAC warrants may surprise many on this board. 

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That summarizes my position nicely.  I want the stock to go up fast, or I wouldn't have bought Leaps.  I like to see a company succeed but I have bought all the stock I will ever buy and now I want that share price up.  Raising the dividend to 0.50 instead of the buybacks would have pushed the stock above $15.00 quickly, possibly even up to $20.00.  Now we wait another year which means another cycle of leaps, and the frictional costs involved.

 

That's the risk with LEAPs...there is always a time arbitrage involved and hell of a lot shorter than the warrants.  Do you still hold any common or warrants?  Or did you switch it all to LEAPs?  Cheers!

 

Sanjeev,

 

Do you concur with Eric's assessment that tarp warrants in longer run (yr 3 to 6) are losers game? And, what are your view on bac warrants going forward ?

 

Thanks.

 

I know the question wasn't ask to me, but I am very comfortable with the warrants.  Eric is a smart guy but options are not for the faint of heart.  I believe many on this board may be following him out of greed and do not understand the risks involved. 

 

IMO, the TARP warrants offer excellent returns if held to maturity and the economy resembles any sense of normalcy.  Six years is an eternity for some investors.  Judging by the low expectations on the other thread regarding the share price in 2019, the ultimate return on the BAC warrants may surprise many on this board.

 

Kevin,

You are correct that the warrants will likely significantly outperform the common by expiry, because I too am expecting a common stock price above $25.  Hey, maybe it's $40 as Berkowitz suggests.

 

Whatever it may be, I'd rather do it with lower cost of leverage!  Were the warrants to have lower cost of leverage, they'd be even better!  So that's the direction I'm heading.

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Some of you guys are way too rational. The market won't care about a small little buyback and resulting value accretion. It is way too mathematical, way too logical.

 

If you want to make big returns in the stock market like Ericopoly then you need stocks to move up fast. Sell, then buy a cheaper one. Then repeat again. Not to go up at decent returns over the long haul. If I was running a business I would buyback shares too, but here what counts to a degree is Mr. Market impression.

 

That is why I am disappointed here. The stock will go nowhere now until earnings emerge. There is nothing else before the next round other than upside on settlements which I think are likely the opposite.

 

Cardboard

 

That summarizes my position nicely.  I want the stock to go up fast, or I wouldn't have bought Leaps.  I like to see a company succeed but I have bought all the stock I will ever buy and now I want that share price up.  Raising the dividend to 0.50 instead of the buybacks would have pushed the stock above $15.00 quickly, possibly even up to $20.00.  Now we wait another year which means another cycle of leaps, and the frictional costs involved.

 

That's the risk with LEAPs...there is always a time arbitrage involved and hell of a lot shorter than the warrants.  Do you still hold any common or warrants?  Or did you switch it all to LEAPs?  Cheers!

 

Sanjeev,

 

Do you concur with Eric's assessment that tarp warrants in longer run (yr 3 to 6) are losers game? And, what are your view on bac warrants going forward ?

 

Thanks.

 

No, I don't think they are a loser's game.  Also, I don't think that's what Eric meant.  I think he's saying that the normal degradation of the warrants when you get to years 4 and on, mean that they won't provide any sort of advantage over LEAPs.  At the moment, I think LEAPs are the loser's game, since you are relying on a 2-year time arbitrage.  Why do you think Al and Eric wanted dividends!  ;D 

 

We bought the April 5th $12 Calls on March 4th for 17.5 cents each.  They will be anywhere from 75-90 cents tomorrow!  You aren't going to get that type of return with the warrants, but the warrants at present are proxies for equity...at least the A warrants.  I think the B warrants may be tough to make alot of money on.  Cheers!

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Hi Sanjeev,

 

You got it man! Baller in Vegas... Didn't even know about that term! A night at the Bellagio in their suites would be already awesome!

 

Check out the Black Card Amex feature on their site or the Centurion card. That is the right match for Ericopoly!

 

Cardboard

 

I stayed at the Bellagio last year.  It's a very nice hotel, but I don't like the rooms.  Actually, I like the MGM Grand Signature suites.  It's off the strip a block, has private pools, full kitchens and massive marble bathrooms.  And cheaper than Bellagio!  Cardboard, we'll use your Amex card at Spearmint Rhino!  ;D  Cheers!

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Some of you guys are way too rational. The market won't care about a small little buyback and resulting value accretion. It is way too mathematical, way too logical.

 

If you want to make big returns in the stock market like Ericopoly then you need stocks to move up fast. Sell, then buy a cheaper one. Then repeat again. Not to go up at decent returns over the long haul. If I was running a business I would buyback shares too, but here what counts to a degree is Mr. Market impression.

 

That is why I am disappointed here. The stock will go nowhere now until earnings emerge. There is nothing else before the next round other than upside on settlements which I think are likely the opposite.

 

Cardboard

 

That summarizes my position nicely.  I want the stock to go up fast, or I wouldn't have bought Leaps.  I like to see a company succeed but I have bought all the stock I will ever buy and now I want that share price up.  Raising the dividend to 0.50 instead of the buybacks would have pushed the stock above $15.00 quickly, possibly even up to $20.00.  Now we wait another year which means another cycle of leaps, and the frictional costs involved.

 

That's the risk with LEAPs...there is always a time arbitrage involved and hell of a lot shorter than the warrants.  Do you still hold any common or warrants?  Or did you switch it all to LEAPs?  Cheers!

 

Sanjeev,

 

Do you concur with Eric's assessment that tarp warrants in longer run (yr 3 to 6) are losers game? And, what are your view on bac warrants going forward ?

 

Thanks.

 

No, I don't think they are a loser's game.  Also, I don't think that's what Eric meant.  I think he's saying that the normal degradation of the warrants when you get to years 4 and on, mean that they won't provide any sort of advantage over LEAPs.  At the moment, I think LEAPs are the loser's game, since you are relying on a 2-year time arbitrage.  Why do you think Al and Eric wanted dividends!  ;D 

 

We bought the April 5th $12 Calls on March 4th for 17.5 cents each.  They will be anywhere from 75-90 cents tomorrow!  You aren't going to get that type of return with the warrants, but the warrants at present are proxies for equity...at least the A warrants.  I think the B warrants may be tough to make alot of money on.  Cheers!

 

The warrants and LEAPS are both loser's games if the stock doesn't appreciate.  The warrants decay and so do the LEAPS.  But I grabbed the $12 LEAPS on the theory that the bank is (and this will sound fancy so brace yourself!) now "earning the cost of capital" embedded in the LEAPS.  So I can keep on buying $12 LEAPS every two years even if the stock is still at $12.  The shares might not appreciate, but at least their value is growing at the speed at which I'm throwing money into the LEAPS.  Eventually the accumulated value will start to show in the stock price as ROTE shines through to earnings (and cover the cost of the LEAPS) -- that's when I get the moment I've been waiting for, which is the speculative rise in stock price up to 1.3x or 1.5x tangible book..

 

$12 invested in the warrants give the upside of 2 shares.  Two shares of upside invested in the $12 strike LEAPS would cost $4 (2x$2).

 

So $4 invested in the 2015s, then $4 more invested in the $2017s, then $4 more invested in the 2019s.

 

Same 2x upside as with the warrants.  Only, I don't blow the whole wad all at once.  I spend a third, and wait.  Then perhaps in two years spend another third and wait.  Then perhaps in 4 years I spend the final third.

 

Hopefully now I'm understood.  At all times I have far less money on the table (except in year 5 and 6), and less money on the table means less risk guys!  Yes, same upside!

 

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Hopefully now I'm understood.  At all times I have far less money on the table (except in year 5 and 6), and less money on the table means less risk guys!  Yes, same upside!

 

As long as you said, that the stock appreciates.  If it doesn't than as you also said, both the warrants and LEAPs are worthless.  But the common would still retain it's valuation based on market price...more certainty, less risk, less reward.  Whereas the LEAPs provide you the same return as the warrants with less capital upfront.   

 

You forgot one aspect though.  The warrants are adjusted for dividends and buybacks.  If BAC starts to return large amounts of capital over the next 3-4 years, and $10.5B is a pretty good start with all of the remaining legacy issues, then would the warrants not be the better investment...albeit all of the capital upfront?  Cheers!

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You forgot one aspect though.  The warrants are adjusted for dividends and buybacks.  If BAC starts to return large amounts of capital over the next 3-4 years, and $10.5B is a pretty good start with all of the remaining legacy issues, then would the warrants not be the better investment...albeit all of the capital upfront?  Cheers!

 

 

The warrants cost me 13% a year for the leverage, but the LEAPS cost me just 10% a year for the leverage.

 

So what sort of dividend protection are we talking about here?  The guys with the warrants are buying their dividend upfront, then getting it handed back to them.  The only way they win is if the dividend is larger than the options market expects -- but today, I'm the big winner as the warrants got no dividend even though they paid for one!

 

And Sanjeev, I get to invest my dividend today at $12 but the warrant holder is at the mercy of what we both expect to be higher stock prices next year.  A 60 cent dividend reinvested today at $12 (my dividend for two years combined) is worth 90 cents if reinvested at $18 later on.  So I totally win -- kicked butt on that one relative to the warrants.

 

Later, when the stock is trading at $20 in two years:

either A) 

I'll take delivery for my shares, pay likely a 30 cent cost for a $12 put to hedge my margin loan for another two years (much cheaper than it costs today), and kick back getting the full cash dividend.  The fact that the puts get cheaper and cheaper as the stock rises is really the secret sauce to my strategy.

or B)

not use a margin loan.  Just sell the 2015 calls and replace with $20 at-the-money 2017 LEAPS.  They'll also be priced for roughly 3% dividend protection.  They'll likely be priced similar to the way the WFC at-the-money LEAPS today are priced -- only about 5% annualized.

 

5% annualized cost of leverage embedded in the put vs the 13% people are paying upfront for the leverage in the warrants.

 

That's a spread of 8%.

 

What I ask again???  Is BAC going to be paying an 8% dividend when it trades at $20 in two years?  Hell no it won't!

 

The craziest thing I've discovered about these warrants is that people are buying their dividends upfront, then calling it "dividend protection" if they get part of that dividend back.

 

By not paying 13% for this year's leverage (I'm paying on 10%), I effectively get a 3% dividend.  Warrant holders per today's announcement get nothing!  Not my 3%, they get nothing!

 

;)

 

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Hi Eric,

 

I understand what you are are saying...I think.  But BAC effectively paid a 3.8% dividend today.  $5B in buybacks divided by $131B market cap.  Obviously the purchases haven't been executed yet, but the warrants exercise price will be adjusted to the buybacks, whereas the LEAP exercise prices do not change.  Correct?  Cheers!

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As long as you said, that the stock appreciates.  If it doesn't than as you also said, both the warrants and LEAPs are worthless.  But the common would still retain it's valuation based on market price...more certainty, less risk, less reward.  Whereas the LEAPs provide you the same return as the warrants with less capital upfront.   

 

The common would win out over the LEAPS if BAC flatlined for the next $2 years.

 

But if I spend $4 on LEAPS today, am sitting on $8 of cash for the next two years, then if stock is back at $8 again I will now own:

 

1 share of common  (or 2 shares if the stock goes down to $4)

2 LEAPS

 

It's not straightforward that the BAC common would be the best route if the stock is still at $12 in two years.  Depends what happens between now and then.

 

We don't think it's likely that the stock will go below $8, but it might.

 

Anyways, you are right that the common shareholder will live to fight another day if he just sits tight through all that comes.

 

The warrants will have a better chance of living if they didn't face such a hurdle rate.  Although, if you are going to leverage at a $13.30 strike with 13% cost of leverage paid for with all 6 years upfront, then you are already extremely confident that failure is nearly impossible.  So based on the theory of invincibility that the warrant holders already ascribe to, I embark on my LEAPS strategy to reduce the risk while also increasing the upside.

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Hi Eric,

 

I understand what you are are saying...I think.  But BAC effectively paid a 3.8% dividend today.  $5B in buybacks divided by $131B market cap.  Obviously the purchases haven't been executed yet, but the warrants exercise price will be adjusted to the buybacks, whereas the LEAP exercise prices do not change.  Correct?  Cheers!

 

 

No, the warrants do not adjust for the buybacks today.  Neither do the LEAPS.  Both benefit from more intrinsic value per underlying common share, but that's as far as it goes.

 

I invested my approximate 60 cent "default dividend" in the stock at $12 though  :D  The 3% I'm saving in interest costs over two years with the LEAPS is where I come up with my "dividend".

 

One might say the warrant holder speculated on greater than 60 cents of dividends cumulatively for this year and next -- they purchased them upfront hoping to get more?  Backfired so far.

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Hi Eric,

 

I understand what you are are saying...I think.  But BAC effectively paid a 3.8% dividend today.  $5B in buybacks divided by $131B market cap.  Obviously the purchases haven't been executed yet, but the warrants exercise price will be adjusted to the buybacks, whereas the LEAP exercise prices do not change.  Correct?  Cheers!

 

 

No, the warrants do not adjust for the buybacks today.  Neither do the LEAPS.  Both benefit from more intrinsic value per underlying common share, but that's as far as it goes.

 

I invested my approximate 60 cent "default dividend" in the stock at $12 though  :D  The 3% I'm saving in interest costs over two years with the LEAPS is where I come up with my "dividend".

 

One might say the warrant holder speculated on greater than 60 cents of dividends cumulatively for this year and next -- they purchased them upfront hoping to get more?  Backfired so far.

 

Oh, I see what you are saying.  I didn't understand the 13% and 10% costs for the warrants and LEAPs.  I thought you were using the cost of capital over the six years respectively for each, but your actual cost to buy on margin is 13% and 10% respectively.  Or am I even more confused here now?  Cheers! 

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Hi Eric,

 

I understand what you are are saying...I think.  But BAC effectively paid a 3.8% dividend today.  $5B in buybacks divided by $131B market cap.  Obviously the purchases haven't been executed yet, but the warrants exercise price will be adjusted to the buybacks, whereas the LEAP exercise prices do not change.  Correct?  Cheers!

 

 

No, the warrants do not adjust for the buybacks today.  Neither do the LEAPS.  Both benefit from more intrinsic value per underlying common share, but that's as far as it goes.

 

I invested my approximate 60 cent "default dividend" in the stock at $12 though  :D  The 3% I'm saving in interest costs over two years with the LEAPS is where I come up with my "dividend".

 

One might say the warrant holder speculated on greater than 60 cents of dividends cumulatively for this year and next -- they purchased them upfront hoping to get more?  Backfired so far.

 

Oh, I see what you are saying.  I didn't understand the 13% and 10% costs for the warrants and LEAPs.  I thought you were using the cost of capital over the six years respectively for each, but your actual cost to buy on margin is 13% and 10% respectively.  Or am I even more confused here now?  Cheers!

 

Scenario we all find a reasonable possibility:

 

Over the first two years, warrants and at-the-money LEAPS are pricing in their leverage like this:

1)  warrants 13% cost

2)  LEAPS 10% cost

 

In two years' time (the second two years of warrant life) stock is above $20

1)  We use margin to exercise the LEAPS

2)  we hedge the margin loan with $12 puts

 

You and I both know that $12 puts cost a lot when the stock is trading at $12 (like today) but will become very cheap when the stock is trading at $20.

 

 

So, under the scenario that we are all gunning for, the cost of hedging the $12 strike embedded leverage will plummet for the last 4 year lifetime of the warrant.

 

So why the f**king he** do people want to lockup the cost at 13% for all six years when we are all bloody well expecting that cost to plunge over the remaining 2/3 of the warrants' life????

 

That's what gets me  :)  And that's where I see the opportunity to do way better than the warrant by my strategy.  And I'm taking less risk along the way.

 

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Hi Eric,

 

I understand what you are are saying...I think.  But BAC effectively paid a 3.8% dividend today.  $5B in buybacks divided by $131B market cap.  Obviously the purchases haven't been executed yet, but the warrants exercise price will be adjusted to the buybacks, whereas the LEAP exercise prices do not change.  Correct?  Cheers!

 

 

No, the warrants do not adjust for the buybacks today.  Neither do the LEAPS.  Both benefit from more intrinsic value per underlying common share, but that's as far as it goes.

 

I invested my approximate 60 cent "default dividend" in the stock at $12 though  :D  The 3% I'm saving in interest costs over two years with the LEAPS is where I come up with my "dividend".

 

One might say the warrant holder speculated on greater than 60 cents of dividends cumulatively for this year and next -- they purchased them upfront hoping to get more?  Backfired so far.

 

Oh, I see what you are saying.  I didn't understand the 13% and 10% costs for the warrants and LEAPs.  I thought you were using the cost of capital over the six years respectively for each, but your actual cost to buy on margin is 13% and 10% respectively.  Or am I even more confused here now?  Cheers!

 

Scenario we all find a reasonable possibility:

 

Over the first two years, warrants and at-the-money LEAPS are pricing in their leverage like this:

1)  warrants 13% cost

2)  LEAPS 10% cost

 

In two years' time (the second two years of warrant life) stock is above $20

1)  We use margin to exercise the LEAPS

2)  we hedge the margin loan with $12 puts

 

You and I both know that $12 puts cost a lot when the stock is trading at $12 (like today) but will become very cheap when the stock is trading at $20.

 

 

So, under the scenario that we are all gunning for, the cost of hedging the $12 embedded leverage will plummet for the last 4 year lifetime of the warrant.

 

So why the f**king he** do people want to lockup the cost at 13% for all six years when we are all bloody well expecting that cost to plunge over the remaining 2/3 of the warrants' life????

 

That's what gets me  :)  And that's where I see the opportunity to do way better than the warrant by my strategy.  And I'm taking less risk along the way.

 

Ok, I get what you are saying now.  Yes, that is a better strategy and far cheaper. 

 

You and I should both go to sleep, because I have to get up right at 7am to sell some of those April 5th $12 calls, and you've spent your entire day teaching the board about options!  ;D  Have a good night Eric!  Cheers!

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Without that dividend increase the stock price has no support if there is a general market downturn.

 

The buybacks are going to be far more effective than the dividends as far as increasing shareholder value.  They actually did the right thing here...buy back shares under book, even tangible book maybe...and retire high interest preferreds.  If they just wanted to keep the stock afloat, dividends may have been better.  But if they want to permanently increase the value of the shares, then this was the way to go. 

 

Also, dividends tie you down to the large institutional shareholders...doesn't matter if loan losses are up, capital levels down...you pay the damn dividend and it's double taxation.  You buy back shares and it's permanent...done...more tax efficient and accretive to book and earnings when done right.  The Fed cannot cancel your share buyback after it's complete, but they can stop you from paying a dividend.  Cheers!

 

Yes,  "when done right" is the key here.  The only buyback I have seen done right in the last number of years is Seaspan.  The list of badly done buy backs far outweighs those done well.  SHLD, JPM, Potash corp, are three that immediately come to mind. 

 

And Moynihan said there would be more money toward dividends.

 

You think JPMs buybacks is bad?  Dimon stresses price vs. value when doing buybacks and noted he is a buyer in size around TBV.  Sounds like a great plan.  It was unfortunate that they had to scale down during the whale incident, but that was partly due to regulation.

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Hopefully now I'm understood.  At all times I have far less money on the table (except in year 5 and 6), and less money on the table means less risk guys!  Yes, same upside!

 

As long as you said, that the stock appreciates.  If it doesn't than as you also said, both the warrants and LEAPs are worthless.  But the common would still retain it's valuation based on market price...more certainty, less risk, less reward.  Whereas the LEAPs provide you the same return as the warrants with less capital upfront.   

 

You forgot one aspect though.  The warrants are adjusted for dividends and buybacks.  If BAC starts to return large amounts of capital over the next 3-4 years, and $10.5B is a pretty good start with all of the remaining legacy issues, then would the warrants not be the better investment...albeit all of the capital upfront?  Cheers!

 

If the anti dilution adjustments are more than icing on the cake for your investment case then I will be careful with lumping those two together. In the case of the latter words such as "tender" in the language and the actual formula might trip you up if you are not 100% clear about its intended result. The end result of adjustments under the two scenarios are very different.

 

 

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Buffett said he was in Charlotte to meet with BAC employees a short time ago.

 

Hi Redskin,

 

Do you know where I can find Buffett talking about a trip to meet with BAC employees? It's very interesting if he did.

 

I think it was during the CNBC interview that he mentioned it.

 

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It was on Fox Business News around mid Feb...he mentioned it kind of casually while answering another question.

 

Awesome! Thanks for the tip. I found it on Fox. Here's the link:

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2165570838001/warren-buffett-housing-market-is-getting-better/

 

In it he mentions talking to Brian Moynihan on the phone a couple of times during the preferred deal and a few times afterward. He goes on to mention visiting Charlotte to give a talk to some BofA employees.

 

Anyone know if Warren's done this at other investments like Wells Fargo, Amex or others?

 

I think it's great that Warren went and BofA is interested in listening to his thoughts and ideas.

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Congrats to Sanjeev on BAC April 5 $12 calls.  Brilliant!

 

You and I should both go to sleep, because I have to get up right at 7am to sell some of those April 5th $12 calls, and you've spent your entire day teaching the board about options!    Have a good night Eric!  Cheers!

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