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Fiscal Cliff changing any portfolios?


wescobrk
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Eric et al, anyone concerned or changing allocation because of fiscal cliff?

CBO says 4-5% hit to GDP this would result in 30% hit to corporate profits. This could cause a huge decline to the market and bigger to BAC with a beta of twice the market I believe.

The question Im getting at is how much dry powder are people leaving or are you not concerned or making any changes over next few weeks?

Thanks

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Fiscal cliff or not BAC and AIG is still trading below TBV.  If it gets cheaper that's awesome.  I am raising cash as fast as possible (not by selling stocks) to take advantage of whatever occurs. 

 

Outside the two stocks listed above my other two holdings are event driven and still undervalued.  Besides when was the last time something honest came out of Washington.  They will flip this how ever needed for their own gain.

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let's see,

 

3 levels of government.  Looks like it could go any direction right now.  If either party controls the vote the crisis will pass.  If one party controls the presidency, and another controls either level of congress then there will be a few weeks of intrigue followed by some compromise to end the impasse that will look pretty much like the status quo.

 

Going to 100 % cash is the obvious answer, and staying that way for the remainder of my investing career.  Not going to happen as per Yours Truly and Coneal.  The discounts are just too great. 

 

There could also be an earthquake, tidal wave, nuclear bomb blast, or biological disaster in the next 8 weeks.  Maybe Gold?

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Maybe Gold?

 

I would suggest baseball, football, basketball and hockey cards.  They are an excellent investment for any situation that might befall us.  Unopened cases and boxes from the late 1980s are particularly good.

 

I like the ones that are bundled with a stick of gum which could be used as barter in an end of the world scenario no?

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Maybe Gold?

 

I would suggest baseball, football, basketball and hockey cards.  They are an excellent investment for any situation that might befall us.  Unopened cases and boxes from the late 1980s are particularly good.

 

I like the ones that are bundled with a stick of gum which could be used as barter in an end of the world scenario no?

 

Those sticks of gum could be used to build a shelter that I am virtually positive that no weapon yet developed could penetrate.

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Maybe Gold?

 

I would suggest baseball, football, basketball and hockey cards.  They are an excellent investment for any situation that might befall us.  Unopened cases and boxes from the late 1980s are particularly good.

 

I like the ones that are bundled with a stick of gum which could be used as barter in an end of the world scenario no?

 

Those sticks of gum could be used to build a shelter that I am virtually positive that no weapon yet developed could penetrate.

 

Laughed out loud at that one! 

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This could cause a huge decline to the market and bigger to BAC with a beta of twice the market I believe.

 

It won't outlast the warrants.

 

The beta is calculated based on historical volatility anyhow.  That's like saying it's been raining heavier on BAC than on the rest of the market, however if you look closely you'll note that the clouds were darker in the skies over BAC.  Going forward, the skies look to be quickly clearing over BAC.  So to expect it to continue to rain harder over BAC simply because that's what happened when the skies were darker?  Doesn't make sense to me.

 

 

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Maybe Gold?

 

I would suggest baseball, football, basketball and hockey cards.  They are an excellent investment for any situation that might befall us.  Unopened cases and boxes from the late 1980s are particularly good.

 

I like the ones that are bundled with a stick of gum which could be used as barter in an end of the world scenario no?

 

Those sticks of gum could be used to build a shelter that I am virtually positive that no weapon yet developed could penetrate.

 

Laughed out loud at that one!

 

I've got an even rarer investment: a sealed box of Gulf War cards in mint condition. They were so special, the boys decided to let the investment compound, instead of trading them.  :)

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I've got an even rarer investment: a sealed box of Gulf War cards in mint condition. They were so special, the boys decided to let the investment compound, instead of trading them.  :)

 

I'd trade that for an unopened case of 1988 Donruss baseball cards.  Among all things that resulted from the 1980s bubble in sports cards, especially rookie cards and unopened cases/boxes, I can't think of a worse investment than anything related to 1988 Donruss.  I am the proud owner of an unopened case (or 2) that has been sitting in my father's garage for almost 25 years. 

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I've got an even rarer investment: a sealed box of Gulf War cards in mint condition. They were so special, the boys decided to let the investment compound, instead of trading them.  :)

 

I'd trade that for an unopened case of 1988 Donruss baseball cards.  Among all things that resulted from the 1980s bubble in sports cards, especially rookie cards and unopened cases/boxes, I can't think of a worse investment than anything related to 1988 Donruss.  I am the proud owner of an unopened case (or 2) that has been sitting in my father's garage for almost 25 years.

 

yeah, same thing happened to comic books in the 80's/early 90's. 

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I've got an even rarer investment: a sealed box of Gulf War cards in mint condition. They were so special, the boys decided to let the investment compound, instead of trading them.  :)

 

I'd trade that for an unopened case of 1988 Donruss baseball cards.  Among all things that resulted from the 1980s bubble in sports cards, especially rookie cards and unopened cases/boxes, I can't think of a worse investment than anything related to 1988 Donruss.  I am the proud owner of an unopened case (or 2) that has been sitting in my father's garage for almost 25 years.

 

Oh man, that set was uglier than 1990 Donruss.  Well done.

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I've got an even rarer investment: a sealed box of Gulf War cards in mint condition. They were so special, the boys decided to let the investment compound, instead of trading them.  :)

 

I'd trade that for an unopened case of 1988 Donruss baseball cards.  Among all things that resulted from the 1980s bubble in sports cards, especially rookie cards and unopened cases/boxes, I can't think of a worse investment than anything related to 1988 Donruss.  I am the proud owner of an unopened case (or 2) that has been sitting in my father's garage for almost 25 years.

 

Oh man, that set was uglier than 1990 Donruss.  Well done.

 

Ugly in looks or ugly in value?  It's got both of course, but the plainest, ugliest has got to be 1986 Topps.  Of course my knowledge of cards ends as of about 1989-1990.  My attempt at early mogulhood was very poorly executed.  I do also have somewhere a fairly good amount of pristine Shawon Dunston rookies as well.  Is he still the second coming?

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I've got an even rarer investment: a sealed box of Gulf War cards in mint condition. They were so special, the boys decided to let the investment compound, instead of trading them.  :)

 

I'd trade that for an unopened case of 1988 Donruss baseball cards.  Among all things that resulted from the 1980s bubble in sports cards, especially rookie cards and unopened cases/boxes, I can't think of a worse investment than anything related to 1988 Donruss.  I am the proud owner of an unopened case (or 2) that has been sitting in my father's garage for almost 25 years.

 

Oh man, that set was uglier than 1990 Donruss.  Well done.

 

Ugly in looks or ugly in value?  It's got both of course, but the plainest, ugliest has got to be 1986 Topps.  Of course my knowledge of cards ends as of about 1989-1990.  My attempt at early mogulhood was very poorly executed.  I do also have somewhere a fairly good amount of pristine Shawon Dunston rookies as well.  Is he still the second coming?

 

Ugly in looks, but I was just thinking of Donruss cards.  This thread actually caused me to look, and wow are cards really cheap now.  One set I always liked aesthetically was 1984 Donruss, and even that's pretty cheap...and if someone were to take into account inflation, they'd probably cry.

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hmmm.. market timing and mentioning of beta.. i'll just continue on my way as if the market does not exist and focusing my energy on individual companies

 

I agree with Yours Truly.

My two cents tells me, it would be crazy to jump in and out of the markets.  Why would I want to sell a good company that is making money?  Not only that, it would cost me money to do so.

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  • 1 month later...

Fiscal cliff or not BAC and AIG is still trading below TBV.  If it gets cheaper that's awesome.  I am raising cash as fast as possible (not by selling stocks) to take advantage of whatever occurs. 

 

Outside the two stocks listed above my other two holdings are event driven and still undervalued.  Besides when was the last time something honest came out of Washington.  They will flip this how ever needed for their own gain.

 

If I read this correctly, a drawdown in equities is almost inevitable in the months ahead.  Marc Lasry, perhaps the most politically connected HFM, has been raising cash recently.  Perhaps I'll be lucky enough to get another bite of the AIG/BAC apple sometime in the spring of 2013.

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In all seriousness, I don't think it's such an asinine idea to consider upcoming events like the fiscal cliff.  I'd love to sell a few securities that are closer to my estimate of intrinsic value in hopes of adding to my cheaper Idea's if the market moves down... Unfortunately I have to pre-clear everything and keep getting denied!!!

 

I don't buy anything based on a 'macro' trend, but this dogmatic approach to not discussing it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  I know some great investors say they don't pay attention to the macro but how can they project earnings if this is the case?  In a recession would you project revenue based on previous CAGR???

 

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