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Lol, you actually made one.

 

In a blatant attempt for advice here--I just rolled over an IRA from a previous money purchase plan and have ~10% of funds to allocate.  Previously, due to cash flow, I was only able to get a 3% position in BAC, so I'm considering getting more; however, buying after a 40% rise and in a happy market makes me nervous (this may be irrational).  I'm also looking at AIG, which has not risen as much and seems to be pretty much out of the woods at this point.  Any comments? 

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Lol, you actually made one.

 

In a blatant attempt for advice here--I just rolled over an IRA from a previous money purchase plan and have ~10% of funds to allocate.  Previously, due to cash flow, I was only able to get a 3% position in BAC, so I'm considering getting more; however, buying after a 40% rise and in a happy market makes me nervous (this may be irrational).  I'm also looking at AIG, which has not risen as much and seems to be pretty much out of the woods at this point.  Any comments?

 

Keep the cash.  While BAC is still very cheap, the markets in general have gone up quite quickly, and the world's problems haven't suddenly disappeared.  Things will get cheaper again, be it the entire market or an individual stock...just wait for the fat pitch.  While we are digging for ideas as usual, we cannot find as much that interests us and cash is once again building up.  We have plenty of exposure to areas that we thought were cheap, and don't want to go much over where we are.  So we'll wait once again!  Cheers! 

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Anyways the 13-F from Berkshire will be out next week.

 

 

 

And what has this got to do with the price of Tea in China?

 

WEB been buying?

 

The price of BAC is lagging due to a crisis of confidence.  It's down nearly 50% over the past 12 months -- severe lack of confidence.  Buffett brings leadership to the table.

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I would not be surprised at all if he added, and he probably added below $6!  I think you'll see a handful of other value managers who probably added in the upcoming filings.  And you'll probably see a bunch of other managers jump on board once it hits nine bucks! 

 

I remember so many people jumping on board of Fairfax's wagon once it was over $300.  Reading the recent article on Biglari Holdings, I couldn't but smile a bit reading Zeke Ashton's comments on Sardar.  No one wanted to touch the thing at $3 or $60 post-split.  Now people are happy owning BH at $400!  I'm far happier looking for the most hated, villified stock out there, and seeing if there is any value to be had.  Cheers!

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I said the following in December:

 

Wow, quite amazing to see BAC trading at below $5 today.

 

Just read a blog post about WEB's investment in BofA: http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/12/19/warren-buffett-is-1-5-billion-underwater-on-his-bank-of-america-stock/

 

I argued when the preferred deal was done that it was at a below market rate because WEB believed that the common was worth at least $7.14 per share and probably substantially more than that.  If that is correct, then WEB ought to be buying at these levels, unless he thinks things have changed materially such that the IV of BAC is now substantially below the $7.14 figure.

 

Or I could have just been dead wrong.  It's possible that WEB really was interested only in an asymmetric bet that would be covered no matter what but that would have a lottery ticket-like optionality.

 

I've been adding to my BAC-WT stake over the last few months, but it's been pretty painful to watch.

 

I guess we'll see in the next week or two whether WEB really does believe in BAC.

 

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By the way, in light of WEB's article in Fortune, where he talks about he dislikes "currency-based investments," do people still really believe that WEB was not counting on there being value in the equity of BAC greater than $7.14 when he made his preferred investment at a 6% rate?

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Actually when BofA sold 400 million new shares into the market in December that was the perfect opportunity for Berkshire to add -- lots of additional liquidity.

 

Considering how the market price dropped further, he was able to buy all that and more if he wanted (supply was clearly in excess of demand).

 

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Lol, you actually made one.

 

In a blatant attempt for advice here--I just rolled over an IRA from a previous money purchase plan and have ~10% of funds to allocate.  Previously, due to cash flow, I was only able to get a 3% position in BAC, so I'm considering getting more; however, buying after a 40% rise and in a happy market makes me nervous (this may be irrational).  I'm also looking at AIG, which has not risen as much and seems to be pretty much out of the woods at this point.  Any comments?

 

Keep the cash.  While BAC is still very cheap, the markets in general have gone up quite quickly, and the world's problems haven't suddenly disappeared.  Things will get cheaper again, be it the entire market or an individual stock...just wait for the fat pitch.  While we are digging for ideas as usual, we cannot find as much that interests us and cash is once again building up.  We have plenty of exposure to areas that we thought were cheap, and don't want to go much over where we are.  So we'll wait once again!  Cheers!

 

You see these posts prove exactly where the inflection point lies. I am going to go on a little rant here, but I think the board will appreciate it especially given all the macro/micro discussions and debates going on.

 

I completely disagree with the logic of your post Parsad. We all went long BAC because we felt it was cheap over the very long-term, The fact that BAC is up and our portfolio of concentrated long positions is great, and you have heard it from me here. As of today we are up 25% ytd.

 

But by saying the market has all of a sudden ran up and its time to raise cash, you are attempting to time the market. I have repeatedly said that I have taken nothing off the table, and we are still full throttle long, exactly the same allocation we had going into this year. Why? Because we are long-term investors.

 

The way bull markets are born, are when the bottom feeders begin to sell which creates a consolidation followed by the next leg up. According to our assessment of the market, and intrinsic value for the securities we own, they are still extremely cheap. As such we aren't selling anything and we aren't smart enough to know that now is the time to raise cash.

 

The market may decline by 20% but then subsequently rise by another 40%. It's impossible to know. If anything BAC's aggressive runup merely confirms how wrong the market was. The problem is most investors do not have the endurance to wait it out.

 

Again, not directing this at your Parsad, I am just voicing my opinion here, I value your thoughts and think you are a great investor, but just have to disagree here. If you were long for the same reasons as I, there should be no reason you should be raising cash here, because if you are its merely a market timing exercise.

 

Cheers!

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By the way, in light of WEB's article in Fortune, where he talks about he dislikes "currency-based investments," do people still really believe that WEB was not counting on there being value in the equity of BAC greater than $7.14 when he made his preferred investment at a 6% rate?

 

That was interesting, especially when you could have synthesized something similar to Buffett's investment during the subsequent price collapse. Of course, if BAC fully works out, then in a few years you will hear complaints about Buffett's "guaranteed investments".

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