gordoffh Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Quote from: alertmeipp on October 29, 2011, 06:10:58 PM Quote from: gordoffh on October 29, 2011, 03:00:53 PM dead even as of friday - hit pretty hard during crisis - largest postions in SD, MFC, PD, TDG and RY - Nov 3rd might be able to say up double digits - go SD LOL - IF SD backs to 13 bucks. I will break even and then some. "IF"?? You mean WHEN SD goes back to 13 bucks. When it does I'll be posting saying that I doubled or tripled my money lol ]SD at 13 would be a home run. I was lucky to unload about a 3rd of my postion around 12 in March and starting buying back before last earnings. well that didn't work out. still believed in the story and continued to buy during recent downturn. Thanks to FFH and leverage. now if it does go to 13 what does one do? i see this going much higher but always this maco business to contend with - very tempting to let it ride even though taking some of the table would be wise? anyway i know others here have large positions in SD and are probably facing the same potential question. well lets get to 13 first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 > 40% YTD About 50/50 split to luck versus skill. Correctly hedged the commodities run-up by moving to 70% cash, but we’ve been slow on the Europe rebound & got hit by FBK. The material majority of our synthetic shorts have been covered, & we’ve added to long positions where it has made sense. We’re comfortable with what we have. Our 5 yr return is not comparable as we’ve more or less held the portfolio to a common size by systematically withdrawing excess capital. Only possible because we’re private money. Withdrawals paying off family mortgages &/or acquire rental retirement income properties in various countries. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
claphands22 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Should bac rise back to 17 I will make 10 x my investment - 180000. Selling my warrants to buy the options is very tempting. I haven't had the conviction yet to do it, really impressed you have. In two years I'll probably regret not doing this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Flat -0.7% overall. My long term holdings that I don't intend to trade were slightly pricey at the beginning of the year and dropped more then the market. RIM certainly did not help too! BRK, FFH, BAC all helped to bring back the portfolio to breakeven. BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Down 11%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finetrader Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Down 16%, commodities and financials were probably the worst place to be in the last 3-4 months. And holding BAC, Fbk, SSW, I have suffered. Also, lost on shorts on VXX. By chance I had call on VXX to cap my losses. Still short VXX but with a stop order on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bookie71 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 down .00617 (.617%) for year - amazing the difference a month makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Currently at -12% YTD. (still waiting for the financials' day in the sun) Fairly concentrated at the moment which has produced a pretty remarkable amount of volatility so far. About 20% in cash equiv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysinvert Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 +6% and my benchmark index (SIX PRX) at -14.1%. Highly concentrated in low p/e small caps which never fell to the same extent. Still made a couple of clearly boneheaded decisions and I have obviously been lucky throughout the year not to see some holdings fall further in an almost indiscriminately falling market, because I haven't had that much cash to buy more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawk4value Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 ...acquire rental retirement income properties in various countries.... Just curious Sharper, if you care to elaborate, how do you identify these opportunities in various countries??? Do you go physically to these places or use the services of a local broker. Also are these passive RE investments or do you actively manage. I ask because I want to increase my monthly cash flow and diversify from my substantial equities portfolio. I do have some RE but only 12.5% of net worth. Would like to bring it up to at least 25%. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmattporter Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 Why does everyone have SD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Why does everyone have SD? I dont. Have never had much luck with commodity stocks. claphands, The absolute pummelling the stock has taken is what drives me on BAC. I had the warrants and sold them, at a small loss, and bought 2013 options, now the 2014s are available and have been buying them. If this beast is going to go up it will happen quickly and within two years or not at all, IMO. Total amount invested is about 4% position (1/15th of my FFH position). So, I wouldn't say it was a strong conviction by any means. They are cleaning up continuously and its going to start to hit the balance sheet very soon. A simply risk/reward analysis. Nothing mathematical except being approximately right is necessary. My 2014s go in the money at just about $11.20. What are the odds of BAC not trading at above $11 in the next 9 months? My assessment, such as it is, suggests very low. I have read the entire 10k from last year and kept up with the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmattporter Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 My friend got a loan from BAC for $25,000 to buy BAC stock during the beginning of 2009 when it was trading at $3.00. Let's just say I've considered to do the same at the current $7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Hawk, we’ve done 2 transactions - both in the UK. An X% interest in a relative’s home, with proceeds paying down the mortgage. The interest itself passing through to the kids via a trust arrangement, & a portion of the ongoing monthly mortgage savings going to the kids university funds. Took advantage of an inflated $C, & a fairly highly mortgage rate (variation on a $ saved is a $ earned). A 100% interest in a parental home, less a life lease on the property itself. The interest itself passing through to the family via a trust arrangement. The purpose of the transaction was to take advantage of an inflated $C, release capital, & allow the trust to maintain the property &/or cover some of the monthly upkeep. Were these not family transactions we would probably not have done them. The investment ‘return’ is the reduction of monthly ownership costs, & possibly a terminal inflation &/or repatriation gain when the funds come back to Canada. At some later point we might look at a partnership in a small hotel/apartment in one of the club-med countries, but not for a couple of years yet SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Given the 2007-2011 market climate, I'm pretty happy. (I'm leveraged) Years Return (%) YTD Aug11 7.62 1 Year -11.17 2 Years 23.35 3 Years 25.03 4 Years 28.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moore_capital54 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I would love to see everyone answer this question again after adjusting for portfolio size. Some of the returns posted here are no doubt of very small portfolios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I would love to see everyone answer this question again after adjusting for portfolio size. Some of the returns posted here are no doubt of very small portfolios. Let's not go there again. Once one gets to know most of the frequent posters and what they own, it's possible to infer portfolio size. Most posters have small to midsize portfolios. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 What do you consider very small? I would love to see everyone answer this question again after adjusting for portfolio size. Some of the returns posted here are no doubt of very small portfolios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I would love to see everyone answer this question again after adjusting for portfolio size. Some of the returns posted here are no doubt of very small portfolios. would love to see ur numbers. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I would love to see everyone answer this question again after adjusting for portfolio size. Some of the returns posted here are no doubt of very small portfolios. Let's not go there again. Once one gets to know most of the frequent posters and what they own, it's possible to infer portfolio size. Most posters have small to midsize portfolios. :) When a retail investor or a hedge fund approaches a certain size of 100M or so, it becomes increasingly difficult to get in and out of many potential positions because of liquidity constraints. However, once that critical size is reached, a whole new world of opportunities opens up that is off limits to unsophisticated investors. For example, the opportunity to buy amazing derivatives. All in all, the advantages of that critical size largely cancel out the disadvantages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
claphands22 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 claphands, The absolute pummelling the stock has taken is what drives me on BAC. I had the warrants and sold them, at a small loss, and bought 2013 options, now the 2014s are available and have been buying them. If this beast is going to go up it will happen quickly and within two years or not at all, IMO. Total amount invested is about 4% position (1/15th of my FFH position). So, I wouldn't say it was a strong conviction by any means. They are cleaning up continuously and its going to start to hit the balance sheet very soon. A simply risk/reward analysis. Nothing mathematical except being approximately right is necessary. My 2014s go in the money at just about $11.20. What are the odds of BAC not trading at above $11 in the next 9 months? My assessment, such as it is, suggests very low. I have read the entire 10k from last year and kept up with the story. I have two conflicting sides about this. First, I've read the analysis on BAC, listened to the conference calls, read the annuals and came to the conclusion that BAC was highly undervalued. (Getting a major bank, that lasted a storm that just wiped out competitors, with capital ratios 2X higher than the last storm, selling at 7.35 a share, where tangible book per share is 13. And a CEO who I have only read good things about. Seems like once and a generation opportunity) I can't see why it shouldn't trade substantially more than where it's currently trading in the next two years Of course, I can't see why it shouldn't be trading substantially higher right now. So on that side of me, I think those options are just a thing of beauty. On the second side, I made a chart on google finance of WFC that started on Nov, 27 to December 30, 1994. Since this is the time period where someone would have read Berkowitz analysis on WFC (http://www.fairholmefunds.com/pdf/oid1992.pdf), bought a 2 year call options, and would have been thinking about WFC, the same way I am thinking about BAC right now. Yet, looking at the chart (of course this is split adjusted) WFC went from $5.328 in Nov 27 to $5.844 in December 30, 1994. So, what does that say? These banks can stay undervalued longer than our call options can stay relevant. My criticism about my second side. My data was taken from google finance. Maybe the data is wrong, because it seems to fly in the face of what Greenblatt was saying. Of course in the LEAP article*, Greenblatt said he exited around September of 2004, which was one of the high points of the WFC that year, but if he held on, he wouldn't have made much money. (Sadly enough, WFC actually takes off in 2005.) Also, looking at charts is a fool's errand, WFC and BAC were undervalued for different reasons and there are complicated reasons why markets do things what the do and looking at a simple 2 year chart is just seems ridiculous.. So I see the warrants as a hedge on my own optimism. Yes, I think BAC should be trading higher in 2 years, but just like WFC in 1992, these things can trade sideways longer than you expect. So when I say you have conviction, I mean you have conviction in terms of the timing. I really wish I had this because like you stated above, if BAC turns around in the next two years, there is a crap load of money to be made. * The Greenblatt WFC leap article, is on page 220 of You Can Be a Stock Market Genius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
username Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Was up 11%, now up about 5%. Yet, I prefer volatile times, when those are opportunities to switch between securities (say Colgate, BIP and XLP vs. GS, PKX and JPM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Claphands, you are entirely correct about timing. Part of my procedure is to continuously move the option date out further. Right now I am slowly exiting the jan 2013s and buying the 2014s. If the stock price is stagnant next year but the situation of bac is better then I will roll over to the 2015s. There is a small fee due to time value deterioration but that can be taken as a tax loss. In every year except this one I have had to clear out losing positions to offset gains ahead of tax loss selling season. This year I have already taken most of these losses early. :P They say that most options expire worthless. My record is closer to 5 % expiring worthless. I am doing the same with wfc (have warrants as well), a tiny position in jpm, bby. Jury is out on whether I will do the same with ge or rimm. Ge looks to be near fair value right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Is there any particular time or in the monetized where you have been able to roll over the cheapest? How have you dealt with the large bid/ask spreads on some of the LEAPs? Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seshnath Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I would love to see everyone answer this question again after adjusting for portfolio size. Some of the returns posted here are no doubt of very small portfolios. The following link will give you my return. I have a handful of holdings outside of this portfolio. http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=DfEfEmGkEgOaKeMpMaKiAbDf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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