Let Optimism Prevail

[Guest ValueCarl]

200 Countries, 200 Years, and Four Minutes of Your Time.

 

http://www.flixxy.com/200-countries-200-years-4-minutes.htm

[DynamicPerception]

Good visual.

[scorpioncapital]

absolutely amazing, it's shocking how in 200 years we had more progress than in the last 2000! if this trend continues we may be able to say that objectively we are evolving as a civilization.

[Partner24]

Interesting and a thing to remember for all the permanent pessimistic people.

[UhuruPeak]

Thanks for the link! it is inspiring indeed

[beerbaron]

This guy has a neat presentation on Ted. It's the most solid argument I have seen agains the doomers and complainers.

 

BeerBaron

[brker_guy]

Carl, this is really cool!!!  I am always fascinated by AR...

[rkbabang]

On the other hand, it shows how the Westernized nations, especially the U.S., slowed way down after about 1948, sitting basically still, moving only incrementally forward while the rest of the world caught up.  If the trend continues you will see a new "bunching" of the entire world at the same level as you did 200+ years ago during the dark ages where stagnation was the rule.  The dominance of religion was the cause the first time around, the dominance of the state is the cause now.  Hopefully this relatively stagnant "dark age" will not last 1000 years and I don't think it will. The internet is the equivalent of Gutenberg's printing press. Look at wikileaks.  Government will be shown for what it is. Just as much a fraud as religion, a tool to rule the many by the few and farm them of their resources under the guise of helping and/or protecting them.  Human tax farming will either have to end or the would-be human farmers will have to find a new strategy to fool the masses.

[Parsad]

Terrific video Carl!  Cheers!

[scorpioncapital]

the lifespan is also a genetic limit apparently so until we advance technologically, that is not going to creep much higher than say 125.

[Kiltacular]

On the other hand, it shows how the Westernized nations, especially the U.S., slowed way down after about 1948, sitting basically still, moving only incrementally forward while the rest of the world caught up.  If the trend continues you will see a new "bunching" of the entire world at the same level as you did 200+ years ago during the dark ages where stagnation was the rule.  The dominance of religion was the cause the first time around, the dominance of the state is the cause now.  Hopefully this relatively stagnant "dark age" will not last 1000 years and I don't think it will. The internet is the equivalent of Gutenberg's printing press. Look at wikileaks.  Government will be shown for what it is. Just as much a fraud as religion, a tool to rule the many by the few and farm them of their resources under the guise of helping and/or protecting them.  Human tax farming will either have to end or the would-be human farmers will have to find a new strategy to fool the masses.

 

With all due respect, this is the kind of nonsense that could only be learned in the humanities at one of the leading universities.  It is just hogwash and someone needs to say as much.  It is not entirely dissimilar to the nonsense spewed by some who, on the one hand talk about how quickly they want to get enough money to stop working but on the other hand go on and on about how people need to pay "their fair share in taxes."  Only someone not making much money would not realize that the two are effectively mutually exclusive.

[rmitz]

With all due respect, this is the kind of nonsense that could only be learned in the humanities at one of the leading universities.  It is just hogwash and someone needs to say as much.  It is not entirely dissimilar to the nonsense spewed by some who, on the one hand talk about how quickly they want to get enough money to stop working but on the other hand go on and on about how people need to pay "their fair share in taxes."  Only someone not making much money would not realize that the two are effectively mutually exclusive.

 

What, exactly, were you disagreeing with?  I can't understand your point here, since it seems like you're actually agreeing somewhat with your quote.

[rkbabang]

 

With all due respect, this is the kind of nonsense that could only be learned in the humanities at one of the leading universities.  It is just hogwash and someone needs to say as much.  It is not entirely dissimilar to the nonsense spewed by some who, on the one hand talk about how quickly they want to get enough money to stop working but on the other hand go on and on about how people need to pay "their fair share in taxes."  Only someone not making much money would not realize that the two are effectively mutually exclusive.

 

Huh?  Do you disagree that the video showed a distinct slow down in the rate of progress in those two metrics in the US after the WWII and new deal years?  If so, watch the video again.

 

The rest of your comments are too chock full of non sequiturs and logical contradictions to even reply to. But I will say this, if leading universities are now teaching something other than human farming techniques such as socialism and big-government democracy, I wasn't aware of the change.  I've yet to hear about the free-market anarchism curriculum at Harvard.  I'll have to look into that.

 

--Eric

 

[twacowfca]

With all due respect, this is the kind of nonsense that could only be learned in the humanities at one of the leading universities.  It is just hogwash and someone needs to say as much.  It is not entirely dissimilar to the nonsense spewed by some who, on the one hand talk about how quickly they want to get enough money to stop working but on the other hand go on and on about how people need to pay "their fair share in taxes."  Only someone not making much money would not realize that the two are effectively mutually exclusive.

 

What, exactly, were you disagreeing with?  I can't understand your point here, since it seems like you're actually agreeing somewhat with your quote.

 

But doesn't a double negative make positive?

[jb85]

why is a bunching of the world together a bad thing?  In an absolute sense, i see no reason why the US will stop growing 2% real on a yearly basis.  other countries may grow quicker but will eventually level out with the US and grow themselves at 2% a year 

 

Comparing the dark ages (with essentially 0% gdp growth for a few centuries) with todays world (2% yearly growth) seems unfair.  Just because the US will drop in relative status, we will all be living better in 50 years in an absolute sense.  So what if india or china are also doing well.

 

Also, if the "dominance of the state" is really happening or is such a bad thing, why does GDP growth continue to grow at 2% a year?  (furthermore, all the big governments like France and England who everyone says are way to big, those countries have essentially the same gdp per capita growth rate over the past 200 years as the US). 

 

 

 

 

On the other hand, it shows how the Westernized nations, especially the U.S., slowed way down after about 1948, sitting basically still, moving only incrementally forward while the rest of the world caught up.  If the trend continues you will see a new "bunching" of the entire world at the same level as you did 200+ years ago during the dark ages where stagnation was the rule.  The dominance of religion was the cause the first time around, the dominance of the state is the cause now.  Hopefully this relatively stagnant "dark age" will not last 1000 years and I don't think it will. The internet is the equivalent of Gutenberg's printing press. Look at wikileaks.  Government will be shown for what it is. Just as much a fraud as religion, a tool to rule the many by the few and farm them of their resources under the guise of helping and/or protecting them.  Human tax farming will either have to end or the would-be human farmers will have to find a new strategy to fool the masses.

[Kiltacular]

Eric,

 

You're right...my response was poorly worded and, upon a second reading, I think I misunderstood your comments.  My apologies.

 

I thought you were suggesting that the "dark ages" ended 200 years ago -- I think you were just commenting with respect to the video.    

 

Also, upon a closer reading, I think you are arguing that the abuse of certain aspects of religion (and gov't) allowed (allows) the few to take advantage of the many.  I tend to think that on the whole (over 2000 years), the basic precepts of Judeo-Christian religion have been a great civilizing influence.  That said, the abuse of some good, basic ideas did lead to some terrible stagnation as well as corruption.  I think the same can be said of the U.S. gov't since about the time you highlight -- 1948.  

 

I actually think we're on the same page.  I hope I haven't misrepresented your thoughts and I apologize again for my flippant comments.

 

 

[rohitc99]

I am reading a book called the rational optimist - think mohnish recommended this book during the AGM

 

the book talks about the same progress which is shown in the video. fascinating book and gives cause for hope

[jb85]

Everyone keeps talking about stagnation in the United States since 1948.  I don't see evidence of this at all.  Could someone please back this statement up.  In fact all the data i've seen suggests that exact opposite.  The US and a few other industrialized nations have grown 2% real on a yearly basis for the past 200 years, and since 1948, the US growth rate has also been 2%.  I think there is a lot of theory here without much basis in reality.

[Guest ValueCarl]

I think Eric's greatest point for how we may or may not forge ahead, is also embedded in keeping the internet open, liberated as well as viable tied to "economics." Once again, to read an ignorant comment from a Democratic Senator in West Virginia, a privileged man who we all know is not ignorant, sets off alarm bells which could be the precursor to a revived "Dark Ages," assuming the people, especially in the United States of America today, do not stand together in unity to ensure that such principles are preserved.

 

 

[rmitz]

Everyone keeps talking about stagnation in the United States since 1948.  I don't see evidence of this at all.  Could someone please back this statement up.  In fact all the data i've seen suggests that exact opposite.  The US and a few other industrialized nations have grown 2% real on a yearly basis for the past 200 years, and since 1948, the US growth rate has also been 2%.  I think there is a lot of theory here without much basis in reality.

 

People were talking about that only in terms of the health/economics per capita situation, as in the video.  Not overall stagnation--clearly that is not true.  It's actually not that true in an absolute sense either--it has been going up slowly, it's just that much of the rest of the world has been playing catch up in both dimensions.

[rkbabang]

Kiltacular, with some minor exceptions I think we do probably agree more than disagree. I'm also sorry for being a little flippant in my reply to you.  Religion is obviously still around, although it is no longer the tool the elite use to control and fleece the masses. I look forward to a day where governments are equally powerless.  Kept around for tradition and ceremonies and such, but hold no real power.  Sort of like the Royal Family in England.

 

jb85, the evidence I was talking about was the video at the start of this thread. Watch it carefully. You can see that the progress in those two metrics slowed down considerably in their rate of increase for the US and the other North American and European nations after about the 1940's.  Turn off the sound and watch the replay of the chart animation at the end.  It is a marked slow down.  If this data isn't accurate than my apologies for pointing it out. 

 

2% per year GDP growth isn't anything to sneeze at, but for per-capita income and life expectancy the rate of growth has slowed down considerably from what it was.  I didn't claim that it had stopped, only that it might.

 

There is nothing inherently wrong with "bunching" if everyone is growing, but if everyone is bunched and stagnated that certainly isn't the ideal situation.  I'd rather the future look like the early part of the animation where everyone is growing at a fast pace, even if some grow much faster than others.

 

ValueCarl,  Thanks, I too think the internet is the most important technology today to keep us free and progressing.  Information and communication has always been of primary importance.  I'm troubled about how the U.S. government is behaving right now. We have people calling for Jullian Assange to be assassinated.  We have people calling him a terrorist.  Scary times. All while claiming to support free speech and freedom of the press.  The hypocrisy on both the left and the right is just staggering.

 

 

"Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency." --Barack Obama

 

"Wikileaks  is deplorable." --Barack Obama

 

 

--Eric