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[Poll & Discussion] CofB&F members' returns for 2025 [Pre tax, and after fees, commision etc.]

John Hjorth

By John Hjorth
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[Poll & Discussion] CofB&F members' returns for 2025 [Pre tax, and after fees, commision etc.]  

126 members have voted

  1. 1. 1. What is your return for 2025?

    • Return > 120%
      4
    • Return > 100% AND Return = OR < 120%
      2
    • Return > 90% AND Return = OR < 100%
      1
    • Return > 80% AND Return = OR < 90%
      0
    • Return > 70% AND Return = OR < 80%
      0
    • Return > 60% AND Return = OR < 70%
      2
    • Return > 55% AND Return = OR < 60%
      1
    • Return > 50% AND Return = OR < 55%
      3
    • Return > 45% AND Return = OR < 50%
      8
    • Return > 40% AND Return = OR < 45%
      6
    • Return > 35% AND Return = OR < 40%
      8
    • Return > 30% AND Return = OR < 35%
      15
    • Return > 25% AND Return = OR < 30%
      10
    • Return > 20% AND Return = OR < 25%
      26
    • Return > 15% AND Return = OR < 20%
      14
    • Return > 10% AND Return = OR < 15%
      15
    • Return > 5% AND Return = OR < 10%
      3
    • Return > 0% AND Return = OR < 5%
      4
    • Return > -10% AND Return = OR < 0%
      3
    • Return = OR < -10%
      1

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John Hjorth Grand Master

John Hjorth

Posted
Posted (edited)

It's this time of year! 😛-Let the show & show-off begin! 😉 [Well, It has already started ... 🙂]

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I've chosen a span in the poll options of 130% similar to last year, 2024, but materially diffferent compared to years earlier than 2024 on the prior software platform for CofB&F [Simple Machines Forum], and perhaps not so fine meshed as I and perhaps others would wish, compared to earlier years' polls. It's has been a judgement call how to set it up, because of technical limitations of the number of poll options on the Envision software platform to 20. - If you may be "outside the ballpark" in the poll -, I sincerely hope it's in the positive end!

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Markets are now about starting to close for the year, gradually around on our planet, from this afternoon in Europe, and tomorrow USA and Canada will follow suit ... 

 

The poll is set up as anonymous, meaning voter names aren't public. The poll is set up without any closing date. Also the poll is set up as non-multiple choice, meaning you can only vote on one poll option.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Please take the poll when you have your numbers ready! 🙂 -And please also feel free to post what ever you may want to share of comments about your results for 2024, that you se fit and what's on your mind about the matter, perhaps also your comments about the precision in calculations as basis for your vote etc., if any, because it is your personal decision how to do it. 🙂

Edited by John Hjorth
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Jan Enthusiast

Jan

Posted
Posted

I am up 9% in CHF, which translates to 22% in USD if I take currency fluctuation into account. This is money weighted return as I started investing this year and invested more money in the course of the year.

Mephistopheles Experienced

Mephistopheles

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Jan said:

I am up 9% in CHF, which translates to 22% in USD if I take currency fluctuation into account. This is money weighted return as I started investing this year and invested more money in the course of the year.

 

Nice. Question, do you use IBKR by any chance? Just realized that the rate is like 1-1.5% for CHF. You found some good stocks there I'm sure?

Jan Enthusiast

Jan

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:

 

Nice. Question, do you use IBKR by any chance? Just realized that the rate is like 1-1.5% for CHF. You found some good stocks there I'm sure?

 

Yes I use IBKR and also margin loans, but in other currencies, 2/3 USD and 1/3 JPY, so I pay a bit higher rate, but its safer, as in crisis oftentimes CHF appreciates and that would mean your debt is getting higher in the worst moment..

I can get basically any stock I wish for there, yes 🙂 I like canadian, us, european and HK listed stocks. I barely buy swiss stocks.

Eng12345 Rising Star

Eng12345

Posted
Posted

Looks like I'm right at 24.5% YTD on TWR. 

 

Not happy with it. Had a few serious money losing trades that were more behavioral than anything. If I back those out I'm closer to 35% I would think. 

Mephistopheles Experienced

Mephistopheles

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Jan said:

 

Yes I use IBKR and also margin loans, but in other currencies, 2/3 USD and 1/3 JPY, so I pay a bit higher rate, but its safer, as in crisis oftentimes CHF appreciates and that would mean your debt is getting higher in the worst moment..

I can get basically any stock I wish for there, yes 🙂 I like canadian, us, european and HK listed stocks. I barely buy swiss stocks.

 

The way to negate that is you borrow and invest in the same currency. Of course you'd want to invest in blue chip/safe companies and that's the hard part. Not sure what's high quality in Switzerland. Would like Chubb given the Buffett endorsement, but it's not available on IBKR.

Jan Enthusiast

Jan

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Mephistopheles said:

 

The way to negate that is you borrow and invest in the same currency. Of course you'd want to invest in blue chip/safe companies and that's the hard part. Not sure what's high quality in Switzerland. Would like Chubb given the Buffett endorsement, but it's not available on IBKR.

 

Yes, it makes sense in theory, in practice the big swiss companies are operating globally and therefore also affected by currency fluctuations. Maybe less than foreign companies, that could be. I wasn't too interested in them also because they are oftentimes dividend-focused and not growth, which is not optimal tax-wise as a swiss investor. Swiss-Re and Zurich Insurance could be interesting.. Or it would be possible to just invest in the Swiss market Index SMI (large cap) or Swiss Performance Index SPI (large-mid cap) via an etf..

Edited by Jan
John Hjorth Grand Master

John Hjorth

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Awesome returns all! - Both those individually commented on here, and those 'just polled', without comments!

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

At interim [by now], with North American markets open tomorrow, it looks like the {Return > -10% AND Return = OR < 0%} bracket in the poll above, at interim [by now] like ~ -1.9% [~ minus 1.9 percent].

 

And I voted accordingly in the poll.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

-More later. 🙂

Hamburg Investor Collaborator

Hamburg Investor

Posted
Posted

My return is after tax, fees, commission,  and without dividends (that's how I track):

Up 29.6% in US Dollar, and 23.1% in CAD. I live in Germany, so Euro is most relevant for me (up only 14.3%), but I only have around 15% in European stocks and 55% in Canadian dollar (FFH, BN, BAM, FIH) than US dollar (30%).

Biggest winner by far was Protector Forsikring (up 84% in Euro; I decided to sell some FFH and invested the proceeds into PROT, as the FFH position got too big for my risk appetite with 50+% of portfolio . So I sold FFH in October 2024 and bought PROT; it's up over 100% since and now 9% of my portfolio).

FFH moved the needle the most with 43% of the portfolio in the beginning of the year, now it's 47%. BN, MKL are up over 20%, BRK, DHR, META all up over 10%. BAM is down 3%. My smallest positions are down, with Smurfit Westrock loosing 37% and Hermle 11%. At least I got the position size right... I did just some minor trimming this year.

I am quite happy, as it's my 4th year in a row winning against the S&P500 with returns of 0% in 2022 (versus minus 19% for the S&P500), 29% in 2023 (versus 24%), 41% in 2024 (versus 23%) and now 30% (versus 17% for the S&P500). All results are after German tax of 26% on realized profits, fees, commissions and dividends (but most of my stocks don't pay dividends).

FFH helped a lot, but not only. After all rising interest rates helped my non tech portfolio with e. g. a lot of insurers and value investing oriented investments a lot. 

So @John Hjorth, in which currency should we vote? I guess in US dollar? Or Canadian dollar?

John Hjorth Grand Master

John Hjorth

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Hamburg Investor said:

... So @John Hjorth, in which currency should we vote? I guess in US dollar? Or Canadian dollar?

 

22 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

... -And please also feel free to post what ever you may want to share of comments about your results for 2024, that you se fit and what's on your mind about the matter, perhaps also your comments about the precision in calculations as basis for your vote etc., if any, because it is your personal decision how to do it. 🙂

 

@Hamburg Investor,

 

I have here a propensity here to just return the question to you, by asking you 'What do you, youself, think about the question, and why?" 🙂 - Not because I'm lazy here in the Hollidays [I am, btw. 😅], but because I'm nosy about how you think about it! 😉 - Personally, I've been thinking about it for more than a decade now and then, and I'm still eager to hear from other active, contributing CofB&F members about it!

Edited by John Hjorth
Hamburg Investor Collaborator

Hamburg Investor

Posted
Posted

Well, personally, I’m interested in euro. That’s the currency. I have to pay my bills. So for me that’s all important.
 

But it doesn’t make a lot of sense for me to compare my performance to the S&P 500 in euro. What would that say to me? This year the dollar lost around 13% against the euro. Doesn’t make a lot of sense to measure my performance in another currency then the S&P 500, doesn’t it? 

 

Historically, since 2011, most of my stocks Americans. So the  S&P500 just felt as the normal index to compare and I would stick to that even though Canadian stocks are over half of my portfolio recently.

 

In the context of your question and the forum here, I would think that the majority for investors here have over 50% of their portfolio in American business. At least my impression is that American stocks are discussed the most. So there might be investors here like me having more investments in Canada than in the US, but in the end, you have to find one measure of for all of us, if we are building an average. One would get a (very) rough overall impression if forum members are good in stock picking or not. Or what else could be a useful outcome?
 

 

DooDiligence Grand Master

DooDiligence

Posted
Posted

Fidelity says I got 7.95% for the year and 51.1% for the past 3 years. I have no idea how they arrive at these measures. I just look at how much my accounts are worth and know that amazingly enough, they're growing after meagre drawdowns.

 

I've never done a backtest before but ran one this morning with Portfolio Visualizer on my current portfolio. I'm not really sure how to use these. I know past performance is not an indicator of future returns but...

 

image.thumb.png.07720d40d1f9ee6d3446f5c30c0461d7.png

John Hjorth Grand Master

John Hjorth

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Hamburg Investor said:

Well, personally, I’m interested in euro. That’s the currency. I have to pay my bills. So for me that’s all important.
 

But it doesn’t make a lot of sense for me to compare my performance to the S&P 500 in euro. What would that say to me? This year the dollar lost around 13% against the euro. Doesn’t make a lot of sense to measure my performance in another currency then the S&P 500, doesn’t it? 

 

Historically, since 2011, most of my stocks Americans. So the  S&P500 just felt as the normal index to compare and I would stick to that even though Canadian stocks are over half of my portfolio recently.

 

In the context of your question and the forum here, I would think that the majority for investors here have over 50% of their portfolio in American business. At least my impression is that American stocks are discussed the most. So there might be investors here like me having more investments in Canada than in the US, but in the end, you have to find one measure of for all of us, if we are building an average. One would get a (very) rough overall impression if forum members are good in stock picking or not. Or what else could be a useful outcome?

 

@Hamburg Investor,

 

It's really striking, to me personally, that your thoughts on this matter actually mirrors to near completeness the thoughts on the matter of mine! It's a duscussion involving what I would call 'the concept of functional currency', and buying future power, measured at given point in time, here at the end of today, compared to last years year end.

 

My personal functional currency[,by now, it may change]  is the obscure, tiny currency DKK, which is pegged strictly to EUR, no exceptions, or Danmarks Nationalbank intervenes.

 

I also, like you, have given up on finding a for me meaningful yard stick. Especially after a short visit to Indexville over some time, without ever buying anything.

Edited by John Hjorth
John Hjorth Grand Master

John Hjorth

Posted
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Posted
16 hours ago, Milu said:

The 2020’s have had plenty of extreme returns for me, so this year was a rather tame 5%. 

 

I think about my results for 2025 exactly the same way, like you do @Milu. By now it appears I'm the Uber CofB&F Laggard of the year 2025 - isen't there any prize or medal, something  for that here on CofB&F? 🎖️🏅🥇🍾🎁🏆

DooDiligence Grand Master

DooDiligence

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

I think about my results for 2025 exactly the same way, like you do @Milu. By now it appears I'm the Uber CofB&F Laggard of the year 2025 - isen't there any prize or medal, something  for that here on CofB&F? 🎖️🏅🥇🍾🎁🏆

 

No way, I'm probably more laggardly than you are. We both own NVO so misery loves company, right?

KJP Mentor

KJP

Posted
Posted

About 13%.  Some good performers, but too much legacy dead weight (much of which is still around!) to do better.

 

Historical

2024: 14%

2023: 29%

2022: -15%

2021: 11%

2020: 14%

2019: 31%

2018: 11%

2017: 10%

2016: 22%

John Hjorth Grand Master

John Hjorth

Posted
  • Author
Posted
8 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:

No way, I'm probably more laggardly than you are. We both own NVO so misery loves company, right?

 

Jeff [ @DooDiligence ],

 

Sure, misery loves company, - indeed!

 

That said, I'm still up quite a lot in this stock and company, after going beserk buying back in the autumn 2016, when the rodeo bull last time bucked. And the received dividends since starting building the position has been a good contributor, too.

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