Fairfax 2026

[MungerWunger]

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

28 minutes ago, MungerWunger said:

 

Love to see it. Exactly the kind of holders we need before the next hard market. 

[Hoodlum]

For those interested, Fairfax has posted their 2025 Charitable Giving Report.

 

https://www.fairfax.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2025-Fairfax-Charitable-Giving-Report.pdf

 

[djokovic1]

Just updated this table again. Spot the (persistent) outlier

 

Note: I adjusted Fairfax book value ($150 over carrying value), but haven't done a similar exercise for others.

[MMM20]

1 hour ago, djokovic1 said:

Just updated this table again. Spot the (persistent) outlier

 

Note: I adjusted Fairfax book value ($150 over carrying value), but haven't done a similar exercise for others.

This is why it’s been easy to just hold the damn stock!

[Junior R]

2 hours ago, MMM20 said:

This is why it’s been easy to just hold the damn stock!

just get share count under 15 m lol

[mengan]

On 3/7/2026 at 11:40 PM, Maverick47 said:

I agree wholeheartedly that Fairfax appears to have cracked the code of encouraging all employees to be owners, and hence encourages them to act like owners.  Their management incentive plan grants shares, not options, to top management, with a five year vesting period.  Unlike options that can be cashed out, this encourages managers to steadily build their Fairfax stake as they progress in their career.

There is nothing preventing managers from selling shares the moment they are granted (and vested). Which has been the case.

 

Options, RSU and shares function the same from an incentive perspective. It's mainly cashflow and tax treatment that is different among them.

Edited April 16 by mengan

[mengan]

On 3/10/2026 at 2:01 AM, nwoodman said:

The reporting traces a relationship that began at First Republic Bank, where Barrack is said to have championed Erkan’s advancement against internal board resistance, continued with a personal visit to her in Ankara during her tenure at the central bank, and culminated in the Fairfax introduction. On first read, that looks like a personnel footnote. It may be considerably more than that.

Sounds like Barrack engineered Erkan to be on the Fairfax board.

 

Question is who is benefiting from her installment on Fairfax, Fairfax, or Barrack.

[mengan]

On 3/13/2026 at 4:32 PM, Viking said:

The move reflects the challenges faced in attracting investors willing to meet the valuation criteria for state-owned assets.

The government is probably out of touch with market reality. From my experience, uninformed sellers tend to ask for fantasy prices. Especially private sellers of real estate.

[mengan]

On 3/13/2026 at 9:06 PM, Viking said:

3. It is a real expense

 

Fairfax’s stock-based compensation is not free. It runs through compensation expense.

 

So the cost is already reflected in earnings.

 

This is a crucial point. Investors should not pretend the compensation has no cost. But neither should they treat it as if Fairfax is simply handing away stock at no economic sacrifice.

 

Fairfax is paying employees, and part of that pay is delivered in stock purchased with cash in the open market.

 

A normal SBC-program where shares are "printed" also runs through compensation expense. So it works similarly. One is cash other is non-cash. 

[KPO]

Interesting article. Lots of Canada love here: https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-investing-stocks-next-1ffee794?mod=djem_b_Weekly Barrons feed for last 24 hours

[Hoodlum]

12 minutes ago, KPO said:

Interesting article. Lots of Canada love here: https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-investing-stocks-next-1ffee794?mod=djem_b_Weekly Barrons feed for last 24 hours

Here is a non-paywalled link to the same article. 
 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/america-s-next-great-business-oracle-may-not-be-american-meet-the-next-warren-buffett/ar-AA210UK3

[KPO]

1 minute ago, Hoodlum said:

Here is a non-paywalled link to the same article. 
 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/america-s-next-great-business-oracle-may-not-be-american-meet-the-next-warren-buffett/ar-AA210UK3

Thanks @Hoodlum. You’re more tech savvy than I am.

[Parsad]

There is no replacement for Buffett...but in my opinion and obviously it's biased...Prem is the only one that I could think of that could actually step in and do nearly the same thing, get a similar level of respect from management/employees, and treat them all with that same graciousness, respect and expectations of long-term success.  He completely understands investing, insurance, leadership, respect for shareholders, aligning incentives, holds a high moral code and endears himself to everyone around him.  And as you saw today with the Fairfax emblazoned items at the AGM...a terrific salesman!  Only thing left is for Prem to learn to play the ukulele!  Cheers!  

[UK]

54 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Only thing left is for Prem to learn to play the ukulele! 

[Hektor]

7 hours ago, Parsad said:

There is no replacement for Buffett...but in my opinion and obviously it's biased...Prem is the only one that I could think of that could actually step in and do nearly the same thing, get a similar level of respect from management/employees, and treat them all with that same graciousness, respect and expectations of long-term success.  He completely understands investing, insurance, leadership, respect for shareholders, aligning incentives, holds a high moral code and endears himself to everyone around him.  And as you saw today with the Fairfax emblazoned items at the AGM...a terrific salesman!  Only thing left is for Prem to learn to play the ukulele!  Cheers!  

And he does all that without a Charlie 

[roundball100]

18 minutes ago, Hektor said:

And he does all that without a Charlie 

And with more liberal use of (free) exclamation points. 

[MMM20]

2 hours ago, Hektor said:

And he does all that without a Charlie 

 

Who is Prem's abominable no man? Who's his most trusted advisor? Who pushes him toward quality?

 

I'd argue it takes 3-6 people to perform the function of one Munger. 

 

Peter Clarke? Brian Bradstreet? Wade Burton? Jennifer Allen? 

 

Edited April 17 by MMM20

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, Hektor said:

And he does all that without a Charlie 

 

I would imagine Nalini would disagree with that!   

 

Unlike Buffett, Prem bet the farm on Markel (Northbridge) when he bought it...including their home.  Only the most supportive spouse in the world would do that to buy an insurance company that another insurance company was getting rid of! 

 

Ben and Christine were already born, and now your husband wants to not only bet the house, all your savings...but borrow as well...to buy a trucking insurance business!

 

She made more money for Prem and Fairfax shareholders than anyone else by cosigning the loan!

 

Cheers!

[mengan]

On 3/14/2026 at 1:12 AM, dartmonkey said:

 

I also am not an accountant, and also do not understand why you wouldn't just use diluted share count for everything, whether it is earnings per share or book value per share. But I can confirm that Yahoo Finance uses diluted shares in calculating earnings per share and effective shares when calculating book value per share, supporting Viking's idea of doing it that way.

 

Diluted per share is also not well defined, since there are many ways to structure share based comp, some of which aren't considered in the diluted share count.

 

An example is already authorized and clearly allocated capacity of  RSU/Options for share based compensation but which has not yet been issued. Those are NOT counted as part of diluted share count, even though realistically, those RSU/Options are all but certain to be issued in the near future.

Edited April 17 by mengan

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, MMM20 said:

 

Who is Prem's abominable no man? Who's his most trusted advisor? Who pushes him toward quality?

 

I'd argue it takes 3-6 people to perform the function of one Munger. 

 

Peter Clarke? Brian Bradstreet? Wade Burton? Jennifer Allen? 

 

 

It was Robbert Hartog for the longest time and the most comparable to a Munger.  He was one of Prem's earliest investors, a mentor, superb businessman in his own right, and Prem really looked up to him as a friend and consigliere. 

 

Fairfax's decision making is ultimately Prem's, but unlike Berkshire, they've had a committee for a long-time that rips every idea to shreds before they pour money into it.  So all of the above played a role, including Paul Rivett for many years, Brian, Roger Lace, Tony Hamblin, now Wade and Lawrence...Francis remains an extremely close friend of Prem's and the company...amongst others.  I think Prem has enormous respect for David Johnson and a number of other directors...both those current and in the past.

 

But outside of Robbert, I don't think he's had that exact Charlie Munger type of personality sitting next to him.  Prem has such enormous belief and faith, both personally and spiritually, that he just pulls himself through whatever faces him.  He's one tough hombre!  Cheers!  

 

 

[mengan]

On 3/18/2026 at 11:52 PM, dartmonkey said:

I think the consolidated non-insurance earnings have historically been small enough that they been lumped in with corporate overhead and interest and just disappear:

consolidated non-insurance earnings  (before tax) is Non-insurance revenue minus Non-insurance expenses.

Just the sum is not stated.

[mengan]

On 3/19/2026 at 11:04 PM, dartmonkey said:

I'm just not sure that the line item 'interest and dividends' only pertains to fixed income interest and dividends; does anyone know? For that matter, some of the common stocks issue dividends, too, so if they are included in 'interest and dividends' (for instance, as below), I don't know how I can isolate fixed income, except by using their yield on fixed income (5.0% last year) and estimating how much that represents, based on the size of the fixed income portfolio. If anyone has any thoughts about this, they would be welcome.

Interest and dividends are from non-consolidated and non-equity method accounted holdings as well as fixed income investment. Fixed income interest is calculated as coupon rate times par value.

[mengan]

On 3/24/2026 at 6:59 PM, Hoodlum said:

MW Eat will now pursue global growth. Watsa wants to bring its top restaurants to Canada, the U.S., the Gulf and elsewhere. He envisages a 10-fold growth in sales in a decade and having “30 or 40” Masala Zones in Canada, Mathrani says. Watsa talks of “building it slowly over time” and has asked the founders to stay on as advisers and help to recruit new leaders for this phase.

 

Even 10x will unfortunately still be a small footnote compared to Fairfax as a group.  And 10x in a decade is a 25% CAGR. Ambitious but not unreasonable.

[dartmonkey]

13 minutes ago, mengan said:

On 3/19/2026 at 6:04 PM, dartmonkey said:

I'm just not sure that the line item 'interest and dividends' only pertains to fixed income interest and dividends; does anyone know? For that matter, some of the common stocks issue dividends, too, so if they are included in 'interest and dividends' (for instance, as below), I don't know how I can isolate fixed income, except by using their yield on fixed income (5.0% last year) and estimating how much that represents, based on the size of the fixed income portfolio. If anyone has any thoughts about this, they would be welcome.

Interest and dividends are from non-consolidated and non-equity method accounted holdings as well as fixed income investment. Fixed income interest is calculated as coupon rate times par value.

 

Yes, that's what I thought. That means that line is not helpful in trying to tease out valuations for fixed income investments separately from equities, since it includes returns from some of each.

 

In the end, I just used the 5.0% rate the company reported (2025 AR, p.18 or p.222), multiplied by the 2.01x leverage (the size of cash and short-term investments and bonds ($51,501.0m), divided by average total equity for the year ($24,621.2m).