dartmonkey Posted February 3 Posted February 3 8 hours ago, Haryana said: truth: Takeovers done without massive premiums tend to work out well for the buyers. The logic is sound. Merging companies without enriching the seller’s shareholders at the expense of the buyer’s balance sheet creates a new entity that is bigger, more diversified and financially stronger. In other breaking news, companies that pay less end up with more cash for their shareholders but companies that are bought out cheaply do less well for theirs…
Hoodlum Posted February 3 Posted February 3 (edited) It looks like the Canadian government has already approved the Foran Mining deal with Eldorado. Assuming they already have approval from the known larger shareholders with 52% of outstanding shares, then they just need 15% more to pass the 2/3 votes needed. It will be interesting to see if someone else decides to put in an offer. https://www.miningforum.live/p/perfect-match-eldorado-to-acquire Burns said the deal, which had been in the works for the past 6-7 months, shouldn’t surprise anyone, describing the combination as a “perfect match”. Foran executive chair and CEO Dan Myerson said there had been no formal sale process for the company and rather, it was a case of shared values between the two companies. Eldorado and Foran said the deal had the backing of the Canadian government. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said the proposed transaction reinforced Saskatchewan’s position as a leading destination for responsible resource development. Directors and senior officers of Foran owning a collective 4% of the company have entered into a voting and support agreement with Eldorado. Foran’s major shareholders include Fairfax Financial Holdings with 22%, Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX: AEM) with 13.5%, Canada Growth Fund with 10% and Pierre Lassonde with 3%. Eldorado will have the right to match any superior proposal for Foran. Edited February 3 by Hoodlum
Pellom Posted February 3 Posted February 3 15 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: What do you think they have to pay? No clue, but Plank doesn't seem to me to be the kind of guy that would want a boss. If UA is getting out of the sponsorship business and is instead focusing on performance wear, I suppose it fits neatly at Fairfax the way Fruit of the Loom, Brooks and Russell Athletic fit at Berkshire.
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 3 Posted February 3 6 minutes ago, Pellom said: No clue, but Plank doesn't seem to me to be the kind of guy that would want a boss. If UA is getting out of the sponsorship business and is instead focusing on performance wear, I suppose it fits neatly at Fairfax the way Fruit of the Loom, Brooks and Russell Athletic fit at Berkshire. He already has voting control. I’m not sure what the point is of taking it private but of course it could happen.
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 3 Posted February 3 41 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: Assuming they already have approval from the known larger shareholders with 52% of outstanding shares, then they just need 15% more to pass the 2/3 votes needed. It will be interesting to see if someone else d It’s just two thirds of those that vote. If FFH and CGF are in, it’s most likely a done deal. The risk might be on the ELD side as they are issuing cheap paper for more expensive paper.
Pellom Posted February 3 Posted February 3 3 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: He already has voting control. I’m not sure what the point is of taking it private but of course it could happen. He's had a very hard time finding managers he trusts. He's tried to step a couple of times but inevitably meddles until they're fired or leave. I thought Stephanie Linnartz had some interesting ideas to take share from lululemon in the female category by basically being the cheaper option, but she probably went too far in that direction for Plank to accept. The market doesn't trust him and the multiple shows it. He may take it private just so he doesn't have to kowtow to analysts any longer.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 3 Posted February 3 2 hours ago, dartmonkey said: In other breaking news, companies that pay less end up with more cash for their shareholders but companies that are bought out cheaply do less well for theirs… Lol
villainx Posted February 3 Posted February 3 Can't decide whether this is good or treading same stuff. But Canada's (ex)favorite on Canada favorite.
djokovic1 Posted February 3 Posted February 3 Chubb also posted strong results just now. (In addition to WRB Q4 results)
Hoodlum Posted February 4 Posted February 4 11 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: It’s just two thirds of those that vote. If FFH and CGF are in, it’s most likely a done deal. The risk might be on the ELD side as they are issuing cheap paper for more expensive paper. Here is a quick take from TD
SonOfKen_IV Posted February 4 Posted February 4 (edited) TikTok is plenty of videos of athletes unboxing their apparel for Milano-Cortina winter olympics. Lot of Lululemon, Nike, Armani stuff but i haven't found any UA yet sponsoring some national team would have been helpful, i think Edited February 4 by SonOfKen_IV
Hoodlum Posted February 4 Posted February 4 These are 3 other analyst updates over the past week, after the BMO downgrade. The BMO analyst must have a lot of investor sway. Scotiabank raised its price target to $3,150 from $3,050, reflecting confidence in earnings durability. RBC Capital maintained an Outperform rating with a $2,200.00US (3,000 cdn) price target (unchanged). National bank with an “outperform” rating and $3,200 target (unchanged). "Fairfax: Our top idea in P&C. Least affected by softer insurance cycle, huge excess cash and capital position will allow for buybacks and minority interest purchases that drive ROE higher, value continues to be underappreciated.
allycat18 Posted February 4 Posted February 4 How long after the year end numbers come in will it take for Bmo to review their position?
Hoodlum Posted February 4 Posted February 4 (edited) 3 hours ago, allycat18 said: How long after the year end numbers come in will it take for Bmo to review their position? I don’t believe they will change their position based on year end results as that should already be known for the most part. They will react once the share price increases as it will not look good if their target is below what Fairfax is trading at. BMO obviously doesn’t understand where Fairfax earnings will come from during this soft market, so they will be a constant laggard with their targets. Edited February 4 by Hoodlum
Viking Posted February 4 Posted February 4 (edited) 7 hours ago, allycat18 said: How long after the year end numbers come in will it take for Bmo to review their position? BMO has always had a hard time with Fairfax. This is nothing new. And that is because they look at Fairfax in a very narrow way: as a traditional P/C insurance company. What matters in BMO's model is underwriting and interest income. As inputs to their model, they also heavily rely on macro (very high level) thinking ("soft market", "interest rates" etc) - not what is actually happening at the company. IFRS is another problem for them. Most importantly in their analysis, they tend to ignore the part of Fairfax that don't fit nicely into their model: How Fairfax invests/does capital allocation. Impact of reinvestment on earnings moving forward (i.e. what Fairfax will be doing with $4.5B in earnings) Growing size of fixed income portfolio ~ positive impact on interest income Growth in equity portfolio ~ positive impact on numerous income streams Meaningful share buybacks (i.e. 4% per year) ~ positive impact on all metrics Buying out minority interest in Allied World (high probability in 2026) ~ growth of insurance Etc. Hidden value that has been building on the balance sheet (Eurobank being the obvious example) This will be a significant tailwind to investment gains in the future Put it all together and their model just doesn't work for Fairfax - as a result they have a square peg, round hole problem. This obviously affects the quality of their research on Fairfax. The good news is there are lots of analysts that have made the effort to understand Fairfax and adjust their models to reflect reality. Investors need to have their eyes wide open (to state the obvious). Edited February 4 by Viking
villainx Posted February 4 Posted February 4 9 hours ago, SonOfKen_IV said: but i haven't found any UA yet i have started buying UA stuff for my kids. 1
dartmonkey Posted February 4 Posted February 4 (edited) On 2/4/2026 at 9:06 AM, allycat18 said: How long after the year end numbers come in will it take for Bmo to review their position? Last year Fairfax published their FY 2025 results on the second Thursday in February, i.e. Feb 13, after markets closed, and that seems to be their usual practice, although they don't announce the future date on their website more than a few days in advance. And BMO responded on Tuesday Feb 18 with an increase of their target price to $2400: "BMO Capital Markets maintained a positive outlook on Fairfax Financial Holdings (TSX: FFH), raising its target price to C$2,400 on February 18, 2025, ...." Its previous price target was $2300, so I guess they figured that $50.42 in earnings for 2024 Q4 (against their forecast of $21.32) and record full year earnings of $173.24 made it reasonable to project a price of $2400 for the end of 2025, 9.8 times trailing earnings or 1.4x book value. And in fairness, the end of year price ($2616) and the current price ($2317) are not far off that target. And it should be noted that as results improved through 2025, they increased the target from $2400 to $2500 (May), $2800 (July), and then chased the share price back down to $2600 (November) and now $2500 (January). With earnings likely to come in at >$200/share for 2025, next week, or >C$273, it will be interesting to see whether they still think 2500/>273= <9.1 is an appropriate multiple. No doubt they will cite the fact that 2025 turned out to be an unusually benign year for underwriting, the hard insurance market is softening, and interest rates have been dropping and are likely to continue dropping, and some new investments are puzzling (UA, the new Blackberry?), and whatever else they can drum up to justify keeping their target in the same ballpark. But I'm guessing it will get bumped up again, at least to $2500 and maybe right back to $2800 if they don't want to have to keep chasing it again. Edited February 9 by dartmonkey
allycat18 Posted February 4 Posted February 4 Thanks Hoodlum and Viking on your responses to Bmo. Your insights are always appreciated
Junior R Posted February 4 Posted February 4 (edited) Chubb beat allstat beat markel beat Edited February 4 by Junior R
djokovic1 Posted February 4 Posted February 4 (edited) Yes exactly I was just going to say. I will be surprised given the peers strong reporting if FFH doesn't post an amazing Q4 of $60+ (well above cons. at $52) and more importantly a continued positive outlook. Can never know how the stock will react (and its short term in any case), but the odds are in our favour given my expectation of strong fundamental performance and low valuation. Edited February 4 by djokovic1
Hoodlum Posted February 6 Posted February 6 (edited) It is interesting when we find some details regarding some of Fairfax's International Insurance companies. While small, AM Best provide some details regarding Southbridge in Chile and gives an idea of the growth potential of Fairfax's international subs. https://news.ambest.com/pr/PressContent.aspx?refnum=37004&altsrc=2 AM Best has assigned a Financial Strength Rating of A (Excellent) and a Long-Term Issuer Credit Rating of “a” (Excellent) to Southbridge Compañía de Seguros Generales S.A. (Southbridge) (Santiago, Chile). The outlook assigned to these Credit Ratings (ratings) is stable. Southbridge ranks sixth within the P/C segment in Chile, holding 5.9% of the market, based on gross written premiums. The company has improved its position during the past 10 years, moving up from 10th place in 2016. Southbridge’s operating performance is characterized by its profitability. The company consistently achieves premium sufficiency through strong risk selection and positive investment results. Southbridge has been able to improve its bottom-line results steadily since 2020, from USD 6.7 million to USD 25.1 million by year-end 2025, driven by prudent underwriting and a consistent focus on profitability. AM Best expects this positive trend to continue, as Southbridge implements its strategy and expands operations. Edited February 6 by Hoodlum 1
Hoodlum Posted February 7 Posted February 7 Fairfax now owns 100% of their Ukraine Insurance subs. https://www.xprimm.com/UKRAINE-Fairfax-becomes-100-owner-of-ARX-ARX-Life-and-UNIVERSALNA-articol-34-22715.htm UKRAINE: Fairfax becomes 100% owner of ARX, ARX Life and UNIVERSALNA 4 February 2025 Canadian group Fairfax Financial Holdings completed a shareholder agreement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and became 100% owner of three Ukrainian insurance companies - ARX, ARX Life and UNIVERSALNA, Forinsurer reports. On January 22, 2025, Fairfax Financial Holdings, which owned 70% of LLC FFH Ukraine, that controlled three Ukrainian insurance companies - two non-life companies and one life insurance company, acquired 30% of the EBRD's stake. The EBRD transferred its 30% stake to FFHL Group (100% owned by Fairfax Financial Holdings), thus FFHL Group’s stake in FFH Ukraine increased from 70% to 100%. As a result of these changes, Fairfax became the sole owner of the insurance companies - UNIVERSALNA, ARX and ARX Life. In 2024, the share of Fairfax group companies - UNIVERSALNA, Colonnade and ARX - on the Ukrainian non-life insurance market, according to Forinsurer, was 14%.
Hoodlum Posted February 9 Posted February 9 (edited) 18 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: Buybacks continue albeit at a slower pace. That is actually disappointing consider the share price over the past 3 weeks and the average daily volume. Fairfax bought back only ~3% of the shares traded during this period. I wonder if this was related to the instructions they provided to their broker prior to the backout period. Edited February 9 by Hoodlum
Junior R Posted February 9 Posted February 9 42 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: That is actually disappointing consider the share price over the past 3 weeks and the average daily volume. Fairfax bought back only ~3% of the shares traded during this period. I wonder if this was related to the instructions they provided to their broker prior to the backout period. these buybacks are done with instructions provided by FFH before quite period started so I wouldn't be really worried until after earnings next week or week after
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