Fairfax 2026

[hardcorevalue]

Anybody have this article?

 

Second bullish Barron's article in a few weeks (first was round table)

US investors picking up on FFH just as the GOAT retires. 

 

All these value guys might have to make room for a new class of growth investors.

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-fairfax-financial-stock-berkshire-hathaway-86c67666?utm_social_handle_id=20449296&mod=bol-social-tw&utm_social_post_id=636482542

[yqsun]

[gfp]

Weird that the article says December 29th but says the stock trades around $1750 usd

[hardcorevalue]

It seems this was just the same article as 2 weeks ago republished. 

[Munger_Disciple]

16 minutes ago, hardcorevalue said:

It seems this was just the same article as 2 weeks ago republished. 

 

Yes. It says so on my iPad (reprinted from the Dec 12th article). 

[MMM20]

I told myself I’d punch out when the “Fairfax is the next Berkshire” articles starting getting published in mainstream business news again (unironically).

 

Edited December 29, 2025 by MMM20

[yqsun]

The author Andrew Bart seems to be republishing the same content on Fairfax again and again in 2025. He must really love the stock.

 

 

Edited December 29, 2025 by yqsun

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 hours ago, MMM20 said:

I told myself I’d punch out when the “Fairfax is the next Berkshire” articles starting getting published in mainstream business news again (unironically).

 

 

I had the exact same thought today 

 

But seeing as it was a republished article, I figured I'd give it a little grace and wait for Q1 earnings to trim from the shares I added in the October/November drawdown. 

[Hoodlum]

The option for Fairfax to buyback their minority interest in Allied World will expire in September of this year.  I thought that Fairfax would do this in Q4, but it looks like this will occur in 2026 now.   Will Fairfax wait until August for this?

 

Edited January 1 by Hoodlum

[SafetyinNumbers]

2 hours ago, Hoodlum said:

The option for Fairfax to buyback their minority interest in Allied World will expire in September of this year.  I thought that Fairfax would do this in Q4, but it looks like this will occur in 2026 now.   Will Fairfax wait until August for this?

 

My guess is Q1 when they get the Eurolife proceeds. 

[UK]

On 12/29/2025 at 10:55 PM, MMM20 said:

I told myself I’d punch out when the “Fairfax is the next Berkshire” articles starting getting published in mainstream business news again (unironically).

 

 

It is quite easy to start worying and get this feeling by being here on COBF, but outside I think this idea of FFH the next Berkshire is still very far from being mainstream:). I do not fully understand why (maybe insurance is too boring or perceived as too risky as a business, but perhaps more often it is mischaracterisation of its managment), but actually it is almost comically hard to pitch FFH as an investment idea, at least in my expierence: people would hook on some craziest (or shitiest) idea almost instantly, but still stubornly ignore FFH. I think I had only 2 instances of success out of perhaps 8 attempts:). On the other hand, at the begining I kind of was this way my self:), at first by concluding, that if I will invest in an insurance company, that could only be BRK, then for some 10 years I was in an on/off with FFH phase and only from 2022 began to see it as a larger or smaller, but permanent holding. I really doubt the later has happened with FFH en masse with the general investing public:)

 

Edited January 1 by UK

[Hoodlum]

14 minutes ago, UK said:

 

It is quite easy to start worying and get this feeling by being here on COBF, but outside I think this idea of FFH the next Berkshire is still very far from being mainstreem:). I do not fully understand why (maybe insurance is too boring as a business), but actually it is almost comically hard to pitch FFH as an investment idea, at least in my expierence: people would hook on some crasiest (or shitiest) idea almost instantly, but still ignore FFH. On the other hand, at the begining I kind of was this way my self:), at first by concluding, that if I will invest in insurance company, that could only be BRK, then for some 10 years I was in a on/off with FFH phase and from 2022 seeing it as a larger or smaller, but permanent holding. I really doubt the later has happened with FFH en masse with the general investing public:)

That is my thinking as well.  For the Canadian investor it is hard for them to get past the mistakes that Fairfax made 10+ years ago and don’t believe the company is any different today.  In some ways the US investor doesn’t have the same baggage and looks at Fairfax more objectively.  But since it is OTC for a US investor there is some hesitation to accumulate a position due to the low daily share volume and limits for some US accounts/taxes. 
 

 

Edited January 1 by Hoodlum

[Redskin212]

It's the start of the new year and the first capital allocation Fairfax makes is the announcement of the annual dividend - typically today after market close.

 

So, my question is: do we get $15/share again or does Fairfax increase the dividend today and by how much? 

I am thinking we might get an increase to $20/share - it has been a great year, an increased dividend would certainly send the signal that management thinks there is more to come.

 

Edited January 2 by Redskin212

[Hoodlum]

25 minutes ago, Redskin212 said:

It's the start of the new year and the first capital allocation Fairfax makes is the announcement of the annual dividend - typically today after market close.

 

So, my question is: do we get $15/share again or does Fairfax increase the dividend today and by how much? 

I am thinking we might get an increase to $20/share - it has been a great year, an increased dividend would certainly send the signal that management thinks there is more to come.

 

I think with the share buybacks and the closing of preferred debt, along with the Allied minority interest repurchase, we may not see the dividend increase until next January and likely to $20/share.  I believe we will find out on Monday as they usually announce it on the 2nd business day of January. 

Edited January 2 by Hoodlum

[Hoodlum]

Has anyone done any estimate of Q4 earnings?   I am thinking we will have a base of $35/share from underwriting, bond interest and dividend. Then about $25/share from mark to market equity gains, for a total of $60/share.  The big unknown will be the size of the reserve release.  I believe we could at least match the  release from 2024, but thinking a somewhat more conservative $20/share which would be halfway between the 2023 and 2024 releases.  That would take us to $80+/share before taxes.  Based on today’s share price, we would be at 8.0x PE and <1.5x book based on 2025 earnings.    
 

What do others think will be reported for Q4 and 2025. 

 

Edited January 2 by Hoodlum

[SafetyinNumbers]

39 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

I think with the share buybacks and the closing of preferred debt, along with the Allied minority interest repurchase, we may not see the dividend increase until next January and likely to $20/share.  I believe we will find out on Monday as they usually announce it on the 2nd business day of January. 

Why the confidence in another increase in the dividend? They were at $10 for over a decade. I would prefer no increase as it means faster growth in BVPS. 

[Hoodlum]

6 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Why the confidence in another increase in the dividend? They were at $10 for over a decade. I would prefer no increase as it means faster growth in BVPS. 

I would prefer no increase as well, but I think they will try to keep the dividend close to 1% of share price.  During the decade span of $10/share dividend, we did not have the growth in book that we are experiencing now. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

33 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

I would prefer no increase as well, but I think they will try to keep the dividend close to 1% of share price.  During the decade span of $10/share dividend, we did not have the growth in book that we are experiencing now. 

Have they ever said that was a goal?

[Redskin212]

31 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

I would prefer no increase as well, but I think they will try to keep the dividend close to 1% of share price.  During the decade span of $10/share dividend, we did not have the growth in book that we are experiencing now. 

I also would prefer no increase but agree that with all the growth we have in the past couple of years, the dividend will likely grow as well. 

[Hoodlum]

8 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Have they ever said that was a goal?

They have not stated that. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

I agree that the priority is the subs and share repurchases. 

 

I doubt we see an increase this year, but next year is a maybe pending on developments. 

[73 Reds]

11 minutes ago, Redskin212 said:

I also would prefer no increase but agree that with all the growth we have in the past couple of years, the dividend will likely grow as well. 

If we are merely advocating, I'd prefer no dividend period, especially as long as the TRS is in place.  Alternatively, I'd like to see the regular dividend replaced by special dividends in varying amounts at the discretion of management.

[Hoodlum]

This was from the 2024 Shareholders report.  So maybe a dividend increase will come after buybacks slow down. 

 

As expected, we maintained our dividend of $15 per share in 2024 and used our excess cash flow to buy back 1.3 million shares at $1,179 per share or $1.6 billion. As I have said before, this represents a hidden dividend for all of you remaining shareholders of $73 per share (Huge!).

[Malmqky]

8 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

If we are merely advocating, I'd prefer no dividend period, especially as long as the TRS is in place.  Alternatively, I'd like to see the regular dividend replaced by special dividends in varying amounts at the discretion of management.

 

Yeah, I'd like to see this as well, I think it is the most optimal approach. I wonder if some folks rely on the dividend to live however? You can create your own with options or just by selling occasionally of course. But with the stock being cheap, I'd like buybacks, special dividends, etc. personally.

[73 Reds]

4 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

 

Yeah, I'd like to see this as well, I think it is the most optimal approach. I wonder if some folks rely on the dividend to live however? You can create your own with options or just by selling occasionally of course. But with the stock being cheap, I'd like buybacks, special dividends, etc. personally.

Personally I just want to see the company become increasingly more valuable, irrespective of what the share price may be on any given day.  Same way I approached Berkshire.  Once management starts to run out of investment ideas, then pay a dividend.