2026 Best Investment Ideas

[Marco Van Basten]

8 hours ago, Xerxes said:

 

TDG and its mini-TDG-clones do not compete on their product/services. 

 

But they may compete on acquisition target. Even then the M&A targets that TDG is interested, the mini-TDG doesn’t have the financial wherewithal to buy, and the targets that the mini-TDG are interested are just too small for TDG. 
 

Both sides of scale presents advantages and disadvantages both to the incumbent and the new kid. 

Yes and no.  Yes TDG has competition on the acquisition front and so does Heico.  However, TDG wants to be included on new platforms, which is key to profits 20 years hence.  In that instance, GE has an orders of magnitude better competitive position than TDG.  Similarly, I can't imagine Heico or Rolls-Royce coming up with something to replace a 15 year engine, while TDG always has that risk.  

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Yes and no.  Yes TDG has competition on the acquisition front and so does Heico.  However, TDG wants to be included on new platforms, which is key to profits 20 years hence.  In that instance, GE has an orders of magnitude better competitive position than TDG.  Similarly, I can't imagine Heico or Rolls-Royce coming up with something to replace a 15 year engine, while TDG always has that risk.  

yes. Definitely if we are comparing moats between engine-OEM and the likes of Heico and TDG, there is no comparison. 
 

Heico and TDG moat are similar in that they operate in the cracks within the OEM & A/M value chain. But also very different in that HEICO leaves money on the table for the other guy (customer) while TDG gobbles up.

 

That said i am not sure I understand your last phrase. Why are you equaling HEICO and RR  

[Marco Van Basten]

10 hours ago, Xerxes said:

yes. Definitely if we are comparing moats between engine-OEM and the likes of Heico and TDG, there is no comparison. 
 

Heico and TDG moat are similar in that they operate in the cracks within the OEM & A/M value chain. But also very different in that HEICO leaves money on the table for the other guy (customer) while TDG gobbles up.

 

That said i am not sure I understand your last phrase. Why are you equaling HEICO and RR  

I agree with you.  I was not very clear about Heico and RR, that is true.  What I meant was that while TDG is vulnerable to losing market share on the spare parts side, GE/Safran don't run that risk.  Also, TDG has the risk that it will lose market share on new platforms, it is hard to imagine GE/Safran losing market share to PW for the foreseeable future or anyone else.  If you give Rolls Royce USD 20bn, it is not clear that they would be able to develop a competing engine for narrow body market.  Hell, I am sure that the Chinese have spent way more.  

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I agree with you.  I was not very clear about Heico and RR, that is true.  What I meant was that while TDG is vulnerable to losing market share on the spare parts side, GE/Safran don't run that risk.  Also, TDG has the risk that it will lose market share on new platforms, it is hard to imagine GE/Safran losing market share to PW for the foreseeable future or anyone else.  If you give Rolls Royce USD 20bn, it is not clear that they would be able to develop a competing engine for narrow body market.  Hell, I am sure that the Chinese have spent way more.  

Definitely true on TDG.
 

On your comment about GE dominance: A long time ago PW had dominance and was engine supplier on 737 (many don’t know that). It was its dominant position that let is slip, and gave GE/Safran consortium the upper hand, …. And the rest is history. 
 

In 2011, Rolls-Royce made a strategic error of exiting the narrow body market. As they sold their equity in IAE JV. 
 

That created the duopoly.
 

Two strategic mistakes. The first gave rise to GE/Safran consortium, and the second removed Rolls-Royce. 
 

All this to say that while the moats you mention are enormous. Their enormity sometimes is overcome by the incumbent making strategic blunder. (Think Boeing going after Bombardier, which had the effect of making Airbus owner of C-series for very little cost) 
 

Today, new narrow body platform are being thought about by Boeing and Airbus. Boeing has no stomach for open-rotor fan design; Airbus is thinking really hard about it. Unlike the previous narrow body era, these cannot have dual engine suppliers (an aircraft designed for open-rotor cannot take traditional engine and vice versa). So it will be winter takes all with exclusivity.  
 

GE/Safran consortium are betting on open-rotor; while PW/MTU consortium are less interested in open-rotor. 

Will PW gain back Boeing on the next platform ? While GE/Safran consortium gets exclusivity with Airbus for open-rotor. 
 

The decisions made in the next 5 years or so will write the next chapter for the next 20-30 years, while shifting moats around. 

[lnofeisone]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

GE/Safran consortium are betting on open-rotor; while PW/MTU consortium are less interested in open-rotor. 

Will PW gain back Boeing on the next platform ? While GE/Safran consortium gets exclusivity with Airbus for open-rotor. 
 

The decisions made in the next 5 years or so will write the next chapter for the next 20-30 years, while shifting moats around. 

Does this mean that GE/Safran aren't listening to their customer, e.g., Boeing and are pushing through with the open-rotor?

[Marco Van Basten]

@Xerxes, all very good points.  Yes, GE/Safran are making a colossal mistake if they are not developing both types of engines - open-rotor and traditional one.   

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, lnofeisone said:

Does this mean that GE/Safran aren't listening to their customer, e.g., Boeing and are pushing through with the open-rotor?

Not at all. I would say that GE/Safran unveiled the horse (open-rotor fan) before the horse (airframe), during the early 2020s. 
 

Airbus is keen on it. Boeing is way more conservative giving all that is going for it and prefers a traditional engine/nacelle approach. 

That is the picture today but can definitely change from here. Both airframers may go with the traditional airframe, all depends with risk appetite.  

 

 

[modiva]

Gold, Fairfax India, Physical Assets (Land, Commodities). 
 

Interest rates going down (very likely) is good for physical assets. 

[Fly]

Love these threads, but it always seems to be some speculative small cap tech name that winds up winning. Photonics computing or some buzzy thing like that is my guess for 2026. POET ticker fits the bill here

Edited December 22, 2025 by Fly

[villainx]

18 hours ago, Fly said:

some speculative small cap tech name that winds up winning.

 

Or small cap biotech!  

 

 

[schin]

21 hours ago, Fly said:

Love these threads, but it always seems to be some speculative small cap tech name that winds up winning. Photonics computing or some buzzy thing like that is my guess for 2026. POET ticker fits the bill here

 

@Fly - You're right. It's never the steady compounders or strangely, any of the Magnificent 7. It's some crazy, off-the-beaten path, flyer that is high alpha and beta lottery ticket pick... LOL.

[Rainier]

On 12/19/2025 at 12:48 PM, zzzyx said:

UHAL.b

Why the B shares? I have never done any research on U Haul.

[Paarslaars]

On 12/19/2025 at 2:19 PM, Luke said:

Best investment for 2026 is to short Palantir and Tesla first trading day of the year and close the Position on last trading day of 2026. 

 

You'll get wiped on the Tesla position for sure.

[Paarslaars]

I'm going to preface this by saying that my prediction was dead wrong in 2025 so don't listen to me.

 

My expectation as highest performing are:

 

- Metaplanet (bitcoin proxy): almost everything is near ATH (S&P, QQQ, gold, etc...) while bitcoin is off 30%-40%. Additionally when rates come down and QE ramps up, this looks like a great setup. HPC miners could also do very well in this environment (CLSK, CIFR, IREN, BITF).

- SILJ (I like the jan '27 calls): on the contrary to gold, silver actually has a strong industrial use and a shortage is now clearly visible, lease rates have also jumped up quite a bit. I expect silver to outperform, junior miners look like the right play.

 

Sorry none of the above are value investing ideas.

 

In my core portfolio I will stick to my long term staples:

- Nintendo

- FFH

- APO

- JOE

Edited December 23, 2025 by Paarslaars

[valueventures]

On 12/19/2025 at 11:32 AM, Spekulatius said:

$CPNG

$BRO

$GTLB

$PINS

What's your view on $PINS? I've continued to hear over multiple years (back when I held a position) that the product-based nature of the site would lend itself well to advertising revenue. Has that started to play out?

[jefke]

HUM.AX - "Value unlock via activism, 4-5x earnings ex cash vs peers at 10-13x, special divs, buybacks, new div policy post activism could lead to a double "

 

Incredible governance shitshow. Raper teamed up with successful Aussie fund CSAM, they hold 9.32% of shares together by now. Claims to have other big holders on his side, launching an EGM to remove founder/chairman of BoD and other directors. 

55% voted against remuneration at the AGM in Nov => credible path to succeed (need 50% of votes cast to remove directors)

 

 

[WayWardCloud]

On 12/19/2025 at 8:32 AM, Spekulatius said:

$CPNG

$BRO

$GTLB

$PINS

I tried using Pinterest for home decor inspiration and 90% of the results were AI slop instead of real objects which made the website completely useless. Am I missing something?

[valueventures]

On 12/19/2025 at 9:13 AM, StevieV said:

This is one of my favorite threads of the year.  I picked board favorite JOE in 2025.  Up a nice 36.5% YTD not including dividends.  I'm not going to pick JOE in '26 but hope it continues to perform well for many years.

 

For 2026 I am going to go with $FOUR, $PX and $MAKOF.  FOUR and PX have had terrible 2025s and I'm looking for a bargain.  MAKOF has had a tremendous 2025 on the back of big gains in the price of gold.  Should still be a lot of room for the stock to have a good 2026 if they can execute on their new mines and the price of gold remains at current pricing.

 

 

I have a small position in MAKOF. Curious how well you think they're hedged against falling gold prices? Thanks!

[valueventures]

Also curious why so many are bullish on MELI given a) there's just 2 pages of discussion on the MELI thread so far, b) this is a value investing forum, and MELI seems to be more of a growth play, and c) MELI had a respectable year, up ~13% (unlike CSU, which I can understand why people think is due for a strong bounceback). I've always wanted to start a position, and valuation has been my hurdle. Thanks!

Edited December 24, 2025 by valueventures

[treasurehunt]

I'll pick PDD and Prosus. No idea if they'll do well in 2026, but both are good companies and likely fairly cheap.

[Spekulatius]

20 hours ago, WayWardCloud said:

I tried using Pinterest for home decor inspiration and 90% of the results were AI slop instead of real objects which made the website completely useless. Am I missing something?

I don’t use it either but Millenials seem to use it for shopping ideas. They are still growing the top line by double digits and there is huge ARPU pot outside NA.

[StevieV]

On 12/24/2025 at 8:33 AM, valueventures said:

I have a small position in MAKOF. Curious how well you think they're hedged against falling gold prices? Thanks!

 

Depends on how much prices would fall.  No true hedges and the value is obviously greatly tied to the price of gold.

 

On the positive side, the company is cash positive.  They are going to be spending down some of their cash plus most or all of their cash flow to pay for the build out of Mount Hamilton and Eagle Mountain but they are starting with a very solid balance sheet and should have some flexibility.  A big positive to have such a clean balance sheet.

 

The other big positive is the big increase in production.  Going from 40+K ounces to 200K in the next 3 years.  Production growth should be the big driver and should overwhelm a modest drop in gold prices.

 

We'll see about their costs.  2024 AISC at their sole mine was around $1,400 oz.  2025 is running significantly higher some related to higher gold prices but I'm not sure how much.  The new Moss mine in Arizona is going to be higher but I don't want to speculate too much about exact costs.  Eagle Mountain should be relatively low cost.  Mt. Hamilton should be decent.  I'm interested to see what the average costs are but obviously much, much below current pricing.

 

Gold is over $4500 as I type.  IMHO the stock isn't pricing in anything like $4000 gold and successful execution of bringing the 4 mines online let alone management doing anything additionally value accretive or even higher gold.  If we are at a permanently higher gold prices above $4,000 then this should be a homerun if they execute on the 3 new mines.  I am sure they are also going to continue to do M&A though I am expecting a pause for a couple of years.

 

They are obviously leveraged to gold prices.  With hopefully 200,000 oz of gold production in a few years a move of $1000/oz is $200 million of revenue mostly flowing to the bottom line after taking out taxes for a company sitting at a $500 million market cap today.  So, obviously, if gold prices drop to $3500 that's less attractive than current prices.  $3000 less so and so on.

 

Execution in getting the mines up and running is key.  Assuming that happens have to figure a home run at $4500 or $4000.  Still great at $3500.  Good at $3000.  With the balance sheet and costs I don't think the company itself is in any trouble at $2000 or lower but they aren't going to be printing money like at higher prices and the stock isn't going to do anything if gold get cuts in half.

 

That's how I see it at least.

 

 

[treasurehunt]

I created a Google Sheet with all the picks in this thread. These are the investments that were picked - so far - by at least two boardmembers.

 

Company	Votes
FFH	7
NTDOY	7
CPNG	5
CSU	4
PYPL	3
MELI	3
CROX	3
ADBE	2
AMZN	2
BRO	2
CMCSA	2
GOOGL	2
LQDA	2
MGM	2
RYAN	2
Safran	2
V	2
ZTS	2
Cash	2

[Fly]

1 hour ago, treasurehunt said:

I created a Google Sheet with all the picks in this thread. These are the investments that were picked - so far - by at least two boardmembers.

 

 

Company	Votes
FFH	7
NTDOY	7
CPNG	5
CSU	4
PYPL	3
MELI	3
CROX	3
ADBE	2
AMZN	2
BRO	2
CMCSA	2
GOOGL	2
LQDA	2
MGM	2
RYAN	2
Safran	2
V	2
ZTS	2
Cash	2

 

Let's see how COBF vs WSB goes:

 

 

Quote

 

1. RDDT : 299 upvotes

2. A S T S : 238 upvotes

3. NBIS : 227 upvotes

4. ONDS : 162 upvotes

5. AMZN : 154 upvotes

6. POET : 134 upvotes

7. OXY : 107 upvotes

8. RKLB : 105 upvotes

9. META : 104 upvotes

10. MRNA : 77 upvotes

11. DUOL : 68 upvotes

12. SOFI : 62 upvotes

13. PL : 61 upvotes

14. PYPL : 60 upvotes

15. KRKNF : 54 upvotes

16. UNH : 54 upvotes

17. RDW : 47 upvotes

18. MU : 44 upvotes

19. NVO : 43 upvotes

20. CMPS : 37 upvotes

21. BULL : 33 upvotes

22. NVDA : 31 upvotes

23. LUNR : 31 upvotes

24. QS : 29 upvotes

25. PATH : 28 upvotes

26. CEG : 28 upvotes

27. APP : 28 upvotes

28. OPEN : 27 upvotes

29. RIVN : 25 upvotes

30. VG : 25 upvotes

31. RCAT : 25 upvotes

32. UMAC : 25 upvotes

33. ABAT : 20 upvotes

34. INTC : 13 upvotes

35. APPL : 13 upvotes

36. WEN : 13 upvotes

37. IREN : 10 upvotes

38. AMD : 8 upvotes

39. NFLX : 7 upvotes

40. M : 6 upvotes

 

[villainx]

I really like Reddit, but don't know a good price to buy.  It falls in the I use it frequently bucket, but I don't know.