Charting/Technical Analysis

[brobro777]

7 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

Gap now practically closed.

I sold a bunch of SPY calls around the top for a few days, but did not have the guts to sell ITM calls, unfortunately.

 

 

Gaps! I dun learned a lesson today!

 

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

7 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

Gap now practically closed.

I sold a bunch of SPY calls around the top for a few days, but did not have the guts to sell ITM calls, unfortunately.

 

 

+1 

 

This stuff always seems to work until I try and trade it

 

So you're welcome that I ignored it?

[frommi]

Since this is about technical analysis, lets see if this author is correct in that the bull market from 2009 has ended. He has btw. counted this since 2 or 3 years up to the top and called the top nearly to the day, even though the language let some interpretation open.

Source: https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/

[gfp]

It's the thread everybody loves to hate!  I posted this in the Intel thread but here is a very textbook "clean" bull flag pattern that has just broken out on a daily closing basis.  Let's see what happens.  For those that don't understand IB TWS, the greenish horizontal line is my average cost basis for this trade, which was entered based on the flag pattern not my deep knowledge of Intel's foundry business future success 

 

INTC, daily

 

 

 

 

Weekly INTC

 

[vakilkp]

3 hours ago, gfp said:

It's the thread everybody loves to hate!  I posted this in the Intel thread but here is a very textbook "clean" bull flag pattern that has just broken out on a daily closing basis.  Let's see what happens.  For those that don't understand IB TWS, the greenish horizontal line is my average cost basis for this trade, which was entered based on the flag pattern not my deep knowledge of Intel's foundry business future success 

 

INTC, daily

 

 

 

 

Weekly INTC

 

 

You believe this will be like LITE where price goes against the chart or price follows the signal?  Not seeking investment advice just trying to understand technical analysis (not something I do for investing but learning)

[gfp]

11 minutes ago, vakilkp said:

 

You believe this will be like LITE where price goes against the chart or price follows the signal?  Not seeking investment advice just trying to understand technical analysis (not something I do for investing but learning)

 

In this case, I would expect the pattern to play out as expected by the pattern - Intel goes up sharply, basically uninterrupted.

 

Now we watch and see what happens.

[DooDiligence]

Intel is a perfect example of why I'm still a (bag)hodler with my 52 week lows.

 

Left for dead...

 

Edited June 13 by DooDiligence

[formthirteen]

11 hours ago, gfp said:

In this case, I would expect the pattern to play out as expected by the pattern - Intel goes up sharply, basically uninterrupted.

 

Now you tell us. Thank you for the variant perspective. I sold Intel recently. Maybe I should have looked at the chart first. It's not the fundamentals driving the price up...

 

Any other stock chart you could help us analyze? CSU hit the 200 days moving average last week:

 

I was thinking about selling at that point, but it's a long-term holding so I'm not touching it right now. I think CSU will be trading on sentiment and not fundamentals for a long time as will ADBE.

Edited June 14 by formthirteen

[gfp]

5 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

Now you tell us. Thank you for the variant perspective. I sold Intel recently. Maybe I should have looked at the chart first. It's not the fundamentals driving the price up...

 

Any other stock chart you could help us analyze? CSU hit the 200 days moving average last week:

 

I was thinking about selling at that point, but it's a long-term holding so I'm not touching it right now. I think CSU will be trading on sentiment and not fundamentals for a long time as will ADBE.

 

 

I can't predict the future.  I can only take and manage risk.  My personal bet is that CSU has put in its bottom but I would expect some more consolidation under 3250 CAD.

 

We have just been through a season of peak positive catalysts - earnings, the Annual Meeting, and a large open insider buying window.  This coincided with a cooling of the "all software is dead no matter what" narrative into more of a pick your winners and losers narrative.  Adobe and Salesforce kept going down but IGV as a whole tried to rally.

 

At some point in a stock's bottoming process, investors shift from "did I buy too much of this too early?" to "is the bottom in and I don't own nearly enough of this, why didn't I build a proper position??" mindset.

 

For me, I built my position, its big and taxable and I'm not going to sell anything here.

 

Average cost basis is $1702.87 USD on CNSWF and $2672.095 CAD on CSU

 

[Libs]

3 hours ago, gfp said:

 

Average cost basis is $1702.87 USD

 

 

 

You bottom-ticked a 56% decline. Well played brother

Edited June 14 by Libs

[gfp]

43 minutes ago, Libs said:

 

You bottom-ticked a 56% decline. Well played brother

 

To be fair, I own 5x as many CSU shares in Canada at the 2672 cost basis than I do CNSWF shares in USD at the 1702.87 basis.  But I'll take it

[gfp]

I run this one tiny separate account for free for a college friend of my Wife's and it's less than $60k.  She has the best cost basis of CNSWF of anywhere I looked.  It's a taxable account so not much trading at all for this account.

 

Lets play: "are you diversified??"

 

 

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 6/13/2026 at 9:46 AM, gfp said:

It's the thread everybody loves to hate!  I posted this in the Intel thread but here is a very textbook "clean" bull flag pattern that has just broken out on a daily closing basis.  Let's see what happens.  For those that don't understand IB TWS, the greenish horizontal line is my average cost basis for this trade, which was entered based on the flag pattern not my deep knowledge of Intel's foundry business future success 

 

INTC, daily

 

 

 

 

Weekly INTC

 

 

When are we going to close the gap from $65-80 from May? 

[gfp]

8 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

When are we going to close the gap from $65-80 from May? 

 

in 10 or 20 years 

[gfp]

On 6/13/2026 at 9:46 AM, gfp said:

It's the thread everybody loves to hate!  I posted this in the Intel thread but here is a very textbook "clean" bull flag pattern that has just broken out on a daily closing basis.  Let's see what happens.  For those that don't understand IB TWS, the greenish horizontal line is my average cost basis for this trade, which was entered based on the flag pattern not my deep knowledge of Intel's foundry business future success 

 

INTC, daily

 

 

 

 

Weekly INTC

 

 

 

Update - still textbook perfect bull flag

 

[gfp]

While we wait for Intel to go straight up (so far so good), we have two mini-head and shoulders bottoms to observe!  One of them in our very own Fairfax Financial, which - as Spek had duly noted - had traced out a "not gonna happen, no way no how" giant head and shoulders top only to negate it and put in a bottom.  Love it when that happens.

 

Here's the FRFHF mini-head-and-shoulders bottom and she's a cutie

 

 

 

 

 

[gfp]

And here is QXO, which also had a strong close today

 

[backtothebeach]

More gaps, just because it is interesting. 

 

[Fly]

I'd be curious what @gfp thinks but gaps on daily candles seem more normal than weekly ones. Weekly gaps seem to get filled at a higher rate by my unscientific observations

Edited yesterday at 06:24 PM by Fly

[gfp]

So many of these stocks trade huge volumes pre-market and after-hours, even overnight.  If you change a chart to show trades outside of standard market hours the daily charts look totally different and usually the gaps disappear.  I don't think gaps matter as much as some other people but I do use it as a price level to trade off when they are just about to close.  With gap fills and price targets and all that stuff I am never greedy, starting to buy/sell before the "number" and always buying and selling in many orders over a range of prices.  You are balancing the risk of trading 'too soon' with the risk that it turns and runs away from you, unfilled.  I've developed my trading style over 25 years or so and it works for me but it's all about managing risk - risk of losing money, risk of missing the trade because you got too greedy on price, risk of being way early... on and on.