If the US is pushing China Out of Trade/World Finance Who Stands Most to Benefit?

[spartansaver]

Not certain this is what he’s doing, but if it is, probably some winners. 

[gfp]

Nobody to answer because everyone is packed into a single room at Fairfax India annual meeting - WAIT!!  What if its India?!

[formthirteen]

I wouldn't be surprised if that is the primary goal. Xi must feel humiliated.

 

Brazil has everything the US needs (coffee, shoes, cars, minerals, etc).

 

Brazil Looks Like a Winner in the Global Trade War

https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/brazil-us-china-trade-war-tariffs-ccfb9a6b

 

Vietnam probably wants to avoid another war with the US.

[Red Lion]

Other producers of critical rare earth elements, etc. come to mind. I wish I had some actionable ideas to recommend. 

[brobro777]

Asian countries in Southeast Asia and Japan and south Korea probably gain - they had all kinds of industry move away to China and some of that stuff may be coming back

[brobro777]

I bought the MacBook Air M4 recently - assembled in Vietnam! 
 

 

[coc]

What kind of ridiculous MAGA potion does one need to drink to think the US could possibly "push China out of world finance"?

[dwy000]

China may be the biggest beneficiary. Anyone looking for a stable trade partner and to diversify away from the volatility in the US is looking to China. And they have 1.4bn consumers all moving quickly up the income curve. 

[backtothebeach]

23 minutes ago, brobro777 said:

I bought the MacBook Air M4 recently - assembled in Vietnam!

 

I bet a ton of Apple products will be shipped from China to Vietnam so they can put their sticker on it.

[Spekulatius]

44 minutes ago, coc said:

What kind of ridiculous MAGA potion does one need to drink to think the US could possibly "push China out of world finance"?

Raising trade barriers to other countries with tariffs etc actually takes the US out of the international trade, not China. I am confused why somebody should think it’s the other way around. The USA is basically erecting a trade barrier around itself with tariffs.

I expect China to approach the smaller countries in their neighborhood that are hard hit by US tariffs for trade deals. Laos, Vietnam (who is already close to China anyways). Bangladesch and a few others could be great targets to develop a larger trade hegemony sphere.

 

Vietnam is for China what Mexico is for USA - a geographically close pool of labor and manufacturing hub that they have influence over.

[Eldad]

33 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Raising trade barriers to other countries with tariffs etc actually takes the US out of the international trade, not China. I am confused why somebody should think it’s the other way around. The USA is basically erecting a trade barrier around itself with tariffs.

I expect China to approach the smaller countries in their neighborhood that are hard hit by US tariffs for trade deals. Laos, Vietnam (who is already close to China anyways). Bangladesch and a few others could be great targets to develop a larger trade hegemony sphere.

 

Vietnam is for China what Mexico is for USA - a geographically close pool of labor and manufacturing hub that they have influence over.

Maybe but the list of countries that have contacted the US hoping to make a deal by lowering their own tariffs are mostly the SE Asian countries you have named. These countries have more to fear from China than the US and they know it. China is a borderline rogue state that is closely allied with Russia and Iran let’s not forget. 
 

It is ironic that a lot of what we may be trying to do here could have already been accomplished by TPP which Trump axed because Hillary liked it. 

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Raising trade barriers to other countries with tariffs etc actually takes the US out of the international trade, not China. I am confused why somebody should think it’s the other way around. The USA is basically erecting a trade barrier around itself with tariffs.

I expect China to approach the smaller countries in their neighborhood that are hard hit by US tariffs for trade deals. Laos, Vietnam (who is already close to China anyways). Bangladesch and a few others could be great targets to develop a larger trade hegemony sphere.

 

Vietnam is for China what Mexico is for USA - a geographically close pool of labor and manufacturing hub that they have influence over.

There is a flaw in your analysis.  All of these countries run a trade surplus with the US and Europe.  So does China.  If the US, for arguments' sake, eliminates trade with China and these Asian countries, where will they sell their surplus goods?  To each other?  Then they will no longer run trade surpluses.  So their economies would have to shrink.  

[Gamecock-YT]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Raising trade barriers to other countries with tariffs etc actually takes the US out of the international trade, not China. I am confused why somebody should think it’s the other way around. The USA is basically erecting a trade barrier around itself with tariffs.

I expect China to approach the smaller countries in their neighborhood that are hard hit by US tariffs for trade deals. Laos, Vietnam (who is already close to China anyways). Bangladesch and a few others could be great targets to develop a larger trade hegemony sphere.

 

Vietnam is for China what Mexico is for USA - a geographically close pool of labor and manufacturing hub that they have influence over.

 

Except the USA never invaded Mexico in the last 50 years.....yet. That will always complicate things in the Sino-Vietnamese relationship and why Vietnam, before Trump's actions, was more favorable to develop ties with the US to the detriment of China.  

 

Lao and Cambodia are already in the bag with the Chinese. They practically own those countries with the corruption taking place. 

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, Dinar said:

There is a flaw in your analysis.  All of these countries run a trade surplus with the US and Europe.  So does China.  If the US, for arguments' sake, eliminates trade with China and these Asian countries, where will they sell their surplus goods?  To each other?  Then they will no longer run trade surpluses.  So their economies would have to shrink.  

You are correct, not every country can have a trade surplus. The goods will flow elsewhere and China/Korea/Japan will have to consume more, shrinking their trade surplus.

 

I think countries like Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia will be hardest hit, because they use trade to get out of poverty and may have lost the biggest trade partner. Getting the trade balanced with the USA is not an option for them because there is no demand for US goods if their populace makes so little.
Making a deal with China out of necessity is not a good option for them either.

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, Gamecock-YT said:

 

Except the USA never invaded Mexico in the last 50 years.....yet. That will always complicate things in the Sino-Vietnamese relationship and why Vietnam, before Trump's actions, was more favorable to develop ties with the US to the detriment of China.  

 

Lao and Cambodia are already in the bag with the Chinese. They practically own those countries with the corruption taking place. 

I believe the Chinese have already outsized economic influence in Vietnam. Vietnam has been used as an assembly hub but also to dodge tariffs for the Chinese. It very similar to US- Mexico relations (proximity, economic ties, low cost manufacturing hub) but there are also political differences (border disputes, South China Sea disputes). It seems to me that this tariff war brings them closer into the Chinese sphere of influence.

[Spekulatius]

9 hours ago, Eldad said:

Maybe but the list of countries that have contacted the US hoping to make a deal by lowering their own tariffs are mostly the SE Asian countries you have named. These countries have more to fear from China than the US and they know it. China is a borderline rogue state that is closely allied with Russia and Iran let’s not forget. 
 

It is ironic that a lot of what we may be trying to do here could have already been accomplished by TPP which Trump axed because Hillary liked it. 

I agree on China but the issue is that if the idea is indeed to balance the trade with each country individually as the formula shown suggest, then only large tariffs will do do for these countries. They don’t really much to offer either. So approaching the Trump administration to make a deal and to obtain a deal are very different things. 

Edited April 10, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Kizion]

23 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I agree on China but the issue is that if the idea is indeed to balance the trade with each country individually as the formula shown suggest, then only large tariffs will do do for these countries. They don’t really much to offer either. So approaching the Trump administration to make a deal and to obtain a deal are very different things. 

 

Not an expert but, according to Perplexity, Vietnam would have a lot of natural resources.

Just as with Ukraine, Trump could try to get mineral rights on those. 

 

He wants you to pay to have access to the biggest marketplace in the world. Or via tariffs, or via other sources of income, but you'll pay. 

[Gamecock-YT]

44 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I believe the Chinese have already outsized economic influence in Vietnam. Vietnam has been used as an assembly hub but also to dodge tariffs for the Chinese. It very similar to US- Mexico relations (proximity, economic ties, low cost manufacturing hub) but there are also political differences (border disputes, South China Sea disputes). It seems to me that this tariff war brings them closer into the Chinese sphere of influence.

 

Perhaps economically, but Vietnam is a very proud independent nation....just ask the French or the Americans. From my travels, I see more and more Korean influence taking hold there as well. But I think both the Vietnamese and the Thais are very adept at playing the world powers very sharply. They're both one of the few places in the world where you'll find Russians, Ukrainians, and Westerners mixing these days. 

[whiskybravo]

China has flouted international goodwill for 25 years.  They have stolen IP, restricted or banned foreign internet companies (but sure like having TicTok in the West), engaged in a host of trade barrier actions, used forced labor in ethnic concentration camps, etc.

A good portion of the rest of the World may just take this opportunity to realign trade more favorably.  Maybe we see China FAFO?

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, whiskybravo said:

China has flouted international goodwill for 25 years.  They have stolen IP, restricted or banned foreign internet companies (but sure like having TicTok in the West), engaged in a host of trade barrier actions, used forced labor in ethnic concentration camps, etc.

A good portion of the rest of the World may just take this opportunity to realign trade more favorably.  Maybe we see China FAFO?

I generally agree with this take. China has been abusing international goodwill for a very long time. A year or so ago, they were still getting mail subsidies because they were classified as a developing country...all while being the two largest economies in the world. The Chinese are also very good at playing long-term diplomacy. The current approach isn't going to FAFO them. Maybe short term annoyance but that's about it. 

[Hektor]

13 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I expect China to approach the smaller countries in their neighborhood that are hard hit by US tariffs for trade deals. Laos, Vietnam (who is already close to China anyways). Bangladesch and a few others could be great targets to develop a larger trade hegemony sphere.

It will become very interesting If China and India could set aside their differences.

[This2ShallPass]

2 hours ago, Hektor said:

It will become very interesting If China and India could set aside their differences.

The level of distrust India has for China is so deep I think the best you can expect is a status quo. India is way better of continuing to build on the strength of US relations..these issues like tariffs are just a blip in the really long term.

 

Any country that thinks China will be a better partner than US, they are asking for the trouble they will be getting into.