Where are we at in this downturn?

[Marco Van Basten]

You guys are funny.  Name me one successful macro trader, besides Druckenmiller/Soros?  Why even waste brain cells on what is unpredictable?  

[Gregmal]

They’ve been doing it unsuccessfully for ages. Even Druck is so absurdly wrong so often I question his actual results.

[Jaygo]

Imo trading on Macro is fine when combined with a sensible business evaluation. 

 

I'm not a macro trader per say but do pay close attention and try and use it to my advantage. Sometimes it is successful and sometimes not so much. The last month has been very good for me. 

 

An example has been my housing related investments have done pretty poorly lately. I felt most of North America was underbuilt so I thought BLDR, SSD, Doman and a few others. They have done poorly but with a few opportunities to lighten up or buy more. All in all it has been about flat to plus a bit based on a macro expectation of a tailwind. The thing is the opportunity is still there and I am constantly shuffling these positions up and down with a generally positive gain. 

 

Macro dooming on the other hand is probably a losing proposition but for the people who take demographics and Macro in general and try and use it to their advantage its a pretty good place to play.

 

 

[Milu]

Petition to change the thread name to ‘where are we in this rally’. 

[Spooky]

12 minutes ago, Milu said:

Petition to change the thread name to ‘where are we in this rally’. 

 

Bring back have we hit the top yet! hahaha

[Spooky]

1 hour ago, Jaygo said:

Imo trading on Macro is fine when combined with a sensible business evaluation. 

 

I'm not a macro trader per say but do pay close attention and try and use it to my advantage. Sometimes it is successful and sometimes not so much. The last month has been very good for me. 

 

An example has been my housing related investments have done pretty poorly lately. I felt most of North America was underbuilt so I thought BLDR, SSD, Doman and a few others. They have done poorly but with a few opportunities to lighten up or buy more. All in all it has been about flat to plus a bit based on a macro expectation of a tailwind. The thing is the opportunity is still there and I am constantly shuffling these positions up and down with a generally positive gain. 

 

Macro dooming on the other hand is probably a losing proposition but for the people who take demographics and Macro in general and try and use it to their advantage its a pretty good place to play.

 

 

 

I agree with this approach - looking at the macro environment in connection with evaluating companies. For instance, back in 2022 it was so easy to invest since people were predicting a 100% chance of a recession. The sentiment in the market was divorced from reality.

[brobro777]

What you guys talking about, value investing is all about trading stock index futures when VIX hits 60

 

haha

 

[SharperDingaan]

Traders trade the days stories, supported by 'bots and technical analysis.

Analysts write the days stories, supported by fundamental analysis and the need to generate trade.

Investors trade the expected change in a story over a given time horizon.

 

Very little macro involved, other than being aware of economic events, and applying common sense.

 

China trade gets cut-off Apr-12 (tariff announcement) .... ships don't sail, US west coast ports go dormant 30 days later. 1) Cheap goods will immediately start to dry up in LA, 15 days later in Chicago/Houston, 30 days later in New York. 2) Bonded warehouse space, CAD and MEX west coast ports boom (diverted US deliveries, waiting on tariff relief). 3) Tariff arbitrage opportunities abound  

 

Saudi agrees to build a $3B refinery in the US ... 

1) Materially cheaper and more reliable if the heavy oil for blending comes from Western Canada. 2) Additional CDN pipe to BC tidewater increases Asian export capacity, AND immediately increases southbound flow to the US (for this refinery) without any new build delays or cost (as some existing fill diverts to the new pipe). 3) Highly likely there's Saudi investment in this additional CDN pipe.

 

Not a lot of macro in any of this, other than a willingness to invest in reasonable business propositions.  

 

SD

Edited May 14, 2025 by SharperDingaan