Macro thread - Why is the market up/down?

[Luke]

Hope this is okay to have on this board. Today Semis are down because the chinese have built good technology

Edited January 27 by Luke

[Spekulatius]

What is interesting is how many stocks are up today’s while the broad indexes are down. This is because the market has been so narrow lately and it was about AI and nothing else.

 

Even some semi stocks are up- those that play into industrial and have little to do with AI like NXPI, ADI etc.

[Eng12345]

Wow - SMNEY and GEV off a cliff as well as all the IPPs etc.

 

 

What a bunch of silliness. 

Edited January 27 by Eng12345

[james22]

49 minutes ago, Luke said:

Today Semis are down because the chinese have built good technology

 

There's always an alternate explanation.

[Malmqky]

Good, maybe Google will stop spending so much on capex  miss the lean days.

 

Anyways, you have to admire Apple's approach to all this. I think most people agreed it was the right way to go about things, but still takes good vision to stick to your guns like they did.

[rogermunibond]

Bernstein take

 

 

Edited January 27 by rogermunibond

[Dinar]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

What is interesting is how many stocks are up today’s while the broad indexes are down. This is because the market has been so narrow lately and it was about AI and nothing else.

 

Even some semi stocks are up- those that play into industrial and have little to do with AI like NXPI, ADI etc.

No, there are liquidations going on is my take.   People are selling longs and covering shorts.

[Dinar]

4 hours ago, Eng12345 said:

Wow - SMNEY and GEV off a cliff as well as all the IPPs etc.

 

 

What a bunch of silliness. 

Why?  If demand for power goes down, so does demand for GEV products.

[brobro777]

Who knows man

 

But bring on the action! More volatility baby!

 

[Eldad]

Japan Dec inflation was 3%. 
 

They just raised rates to 0.5. 10 year is 1.2%.
 

When does that matter again? When the USD weakens? 

[Gregmal]

30 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Japan Dec inflation was 3%. 
 

They just raised rates to 0.5. 10 year is 1.2%.
 

When does that matter again? When the USD weakens? 

Japan is living proof our “raise rates to fight inflation” rhetoric is completely unsubstantiated academic garbage. 

[Eldad]

1 minute ago, Gregmal said:

Japan is living proof our “raise rates to fight inflation” rhetoric is completely unsubstantiated academic garbage. 

Not sure what you mean. 
 

Bonds yields way below the rate of inflation would seem to be a problem in a common sense world. 
 

Japan hasn’t really had inflation since the early 1990s so this is something new. 
 

Carry trade unwind seemed to matter back in August but now it doesn’t for some reason. I am guessing USD to YEN. 

[Gregmal]

9 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Not sure what you mean. 
 

Bonds yields way below the rate of inflation would seem to be a problem in a common sense world. 
 

Japan hasn’t really had inflation since the early 1990s so this is something new. 
 

Carry trade unwind seemed to matter back in August but now it doesn’t for some reason. I am guessing USD to YEN. 

No, interest rates aren’t nearly as correlated to inflation as people lazily assume. Japans had inflation above rates for more years than not, in fact being negative with +inflation a bunch. Even in isolation this totally wipes out the argument a lot of people tried making years ago about just “low rates leads to inflation”.
 

Meanwhile here we re at 4+ FF and 2.x reported inflation, and some are actually talking about hikes lol. 
 

Additionally, the Fed set rates really aren’t related to typical inflationary issues because the average person can’t borrow at those rates. Unless we believe that oh credit card rates going from 28% to 33% really killed inflation. Or that oh people ain’t gonna drive anymore. 

[Eldad]

3 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

No, interest rates aren’t nearly as correlated to inflation as people lazily assume. Japans had inflation above rates for more years than not, in fact being negative with +inflation a bunch. Even in isolation this totally wipes out the argument a lot of people tried making years ago about just “low rates leads to inflation”.
 

Meanwhile here we re at 4+ FF and 2.x reported inflation, and some are actually talking about hikes lol. 
 

Additionally, the Fed set rates really aren’t related to typical inflationary issues because the average person can’t borrow at those rates. Unless we believe that oh credit card rates going from 28% to 33% really killed inflation. Or that oh people ain’t gonna drive anymore. 

Yeah I agree that the low and negative rate experiment did not work to induce inflation in Europe and Japan.

 

I am not sure that we know that the opposite is academic nonsense. I mean Reagan administration etc. 

 

Looking at Japanese inflation chart and there are some small pops but mostly negative years and sub 1% years since their 1980s crash. 

 

The Japanese are big time savers. I would think longterm manipulation by the BOJ to keep the bond rates below inflation would cause savers to become hoarders of goods which has historically been what causes hyper-inflation. 
 

Not to mention carry trade chaos. 

[Luke]

China rocket today:

 

 

Reason?

Edited 16 hours ago by Luke

[Buckeye]

4 hours ago, Luke said:

China rocket today:

 

 

Reason?

Lower tariffs than expected and mild response from Xi? 

[Paarslaars]

5 hours ago, Luke said:

China rocket today:

 

 

Reason?

That's just +/- recovering from what they lost yesterday.

Probably because tarrifs got postponed.

[Luke]

17 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

Lower tariffs than expected and mild response from Xi? 

Gotcha.