President-Elect Trump trades

[cubsfan]

7 minutes ago, tnathan said:

I'm very open to hearing other better interpretations -- do you have specific data that points to what we've said clearly not being true? By all accounts the data is on one side of the argument, and perception is on the other side.

 

I really don't know where you're going with this. Whoever inherits this economy has a rough go of it. Inflation is bad. Unemployement is low, but lots of high paying jobs (like tech) are seeing layoffs. The tech startup business VC look horrible. Autos are a disaster, along with their jobs. Housing is unaffordable. The deficit is a problem. It's going to be a tough go for anyone.

 

The Trump economy was terrific, with record low unemployment for blacks. 

 

So you see the economic news as Fox BS propaganda. I can't change that for you.

 

Like I mentioned before - surveys of voters listed the economy as the #1 issue, where those 

voters felt the economy was not working them. 

 

You see a lot of brainwashed voters. I take them at their word.

[73 Reds]

3 hours ago, dealraker said:

No, 73 Reds I am not.  But a reasonable immigration program is not in place...so I don't understand your point either.

 

Years ago states had welfare programs.  But states don't have the ability to print and do deficits.  So states hired lawyers to ween people off welfare to fed disability.

 

The transition is 100%, today it is a lawyers and doctors power train of fees.  West Virginia has well up in the double digits of working age men on disability as are many areas near my home in NC, some lawyers and judges have thousands of cases of 100% success...not one failed case of successful disability claims.

 

Now, who is involved?  Locally, right here in 80% Trump world where I live, lets just say you just graduated from the local high school.  You are academically limited, thus in the programs for such students.  First step post grad is to file disability.  Yep, gunna be a near 100% chance you get that.  Or let's say, social services got involved with you at an earlier stage of life where you were deemed of irresponsible parenting.  Another 100% post high school disability filing.  "The way I was brought up...I didn't go to school regularly....got me on disability now."  Do you know the number of times I have heard that?

 

What do these young people do?  When young they tend to work part time, and live with relatives (no house or separate renting).  Often they will move around from job to job (young men) working for cash.  Drugs....yes....excessive alcohol....yes....

 

As they age?  Homebound is often the theme.  Didn't take care of themselves either physically or mentally, and the very thought of steady work is impossible to comprehend by this point for them - a continuations of culture that isn't productive now for generations.  You see this is massive numbers in rural NC in the areas near my home.  Unkept homes, steady high crime, all locals...and drug dealing/using in mass!  Walking to the mailbox by age 50?  They all use motorized scooters for that!

 

I am an off the chart social liberal, the very thought of human beings with cultist religious or other lifestyle choices trying to control one another drives me crazy.  But I am also financial, I think financially, and we simply can not afford this spending of money.

 

And America needs to look within, not towards others, for change.  It is ok to have a Trump mentality if you are privileged like he is.  But what if all young lesser capable men attain the Trump intermittent unpredictable nasty view of all things that don't cater to them?  That's what too large a percentage of our young people have adopted as their world view and life culture.  Work ethic?  Oh my.

 

Could the near 20% working age male disability in many rural areas be a huge source of construction labor?  

 

To add to this delicious post LOL.  In 2018 my neighbor accidentally burned down my boat garage (and boats!).  I personally, with a couple of my buddies, rebuilt it.  Yep poured the concrete, laid the bricks, framed and...

 

...as to the roof?  Nope, hired a local roofing co.  The owner tries to employ legals!  So down they come to do my metal roof.   Foreman says, "With the bunch I've got...no telling who shows up."   One guy comes, he had no shoes.  So he's my size and I go in the house and get a pair of old hiking shoes.  Foreman says, "Damn Charlie....don't you dare give those shoes to him!"  I asked, "Why not?"  Foreman, replies, "He'll sell them for drug money...then he won's show up for days!"

Sorry Dealraker, I still don't understand why you think it is OK to encourage illegals. Of course we need immigration reform - both parties are equally guilty of complete neglect on that issue.  But the answer isn't to suggest that we just continue to perpetuate the problem.  Maybe in your part of the country you can't find legal laborers; personally I don't have that issue where I live and work.  Sounds to me like local government and community leadership is failing you and that's where the solution has to begin when you get no help on a broader scale.   And oh by the way, if we strictly enforce punitive measures on employers who hire illegals, maybe they'd stop hiring them and then perhaps many illegals would stop coming altogether.  When breaking the law has no consequences the ensuing results are no surprise.  Probably explains this week's election results.    

[sleepydragon]

Talking about home ownership, lots people can’t afford to buy house and had to rent, and rent has been going up, all these happened when people make babies during covid wfh. And raising babies are expensive. The inflation is bad.

[Spekulatius]

I actually had no idea that you can file disability straight out of Highschool. I always thought you need to fake a work injury or and illness or something like that to get there.

 

The crime and immigration angle makes sense but affects mainly large cities and those still vote 75%+ blue. Have the all red rural areas been affected at all by this? I doubt it. I don‘t even think immigrants illegal or not go there. I live in a rural (relatively well to do do town) in the greater Boston area and I have seen zero impact.

Now you go to the Boston you do see some issues, but it’s way way less than in SF or other cities.

On the black unemployment, I show this chart - seems to me that black unemployment is lower now then it was under Trump. Ink ow what coming next. The FRED chart don’t show the realty, but who  else has better numbers ? Certainly not Fox news. I think one issue instant in a world of abundant ways to obtain your facts,  facts matter less and less because people just look at the sources they want to see, and there is something for everyone out there now serve you the disinformation you want, X being a primary example of this.

 

[tnathan]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

 

I really don't know where you're going with this. Whoever inherits this economy has a rough go of it. Inflation is bad. Unemployement is low, but lots of high paying jobs (like tech) are seeing layoffs. The tech startup business VC look horrible. Autos are a disaster, along with their jobs. Housing is unaffordable. The deficit is a problem. It's going to be a tough go for anyone.

 

The Trump economy was terrific, with record low unemployment for blacks. 

 

So you see the economic news as Fox BS propaganda. I can't change that for you.

 

Like I mentioned before - surveys of voters listed the economy as the #1 issue, where those 

voters felt the economy was not working them. 

 

You see a lot of brainwashed voters. I take them at their word.

I'll grant you the housing piece, which I do think is a major issue for young people, myself included. But to act like this economy is somehow much different than the Trump economy is just not factually correct. Near record unemployment, VC funding in not doing well partially as a reaction to the excesses of 2021, which cannot be blamed on Biden. The U.S. dealt better with inflation than nearly every major country in the world. Agree the deficit is a problem, but it's not like Trump is a better option for any of these problems. He essentially has 2 policies (1) Deport all the illegal immigrants and (2) Tariff everything. On (1) I am actually not that far left and agree we need a stricter process for people to enter the country legally, and should give preference to highly skilled workers. But how can someone look at the current situation and think it is taking away jobs from American citizens who want these positions? Look at unemployment... On (2) This is one of the most economic illiterate policies ive seen floated in recent memory. It's one thing to say to China they need to play the game by the same economic rules as everyone else, but to think that with global tariffs all of the manufacturing that was lost decades ago is coming back is ludicrous. If the tariffs become high enough to the point where it would be economically feasible for lots of jobs to come back home, it would be highly inflationary and doesn't even make sense in a full employment world.

 

I understand your point of view, but you're still making leaps based on anecdotes and vibes and others are providing statements that are close to factual. Watch any collection of interviews with voters on both sides of these issues and you'll see the voting populace doesn't fully understand these issues and are VERY swayed by what they are told is happening by various media sources. This applies not just to Fox but also CNN, etc.

[73 Reds]

20 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Sorry 73 Reds that's 100% your misinterpretation.  Me encourage illegals?  Now where in living hell did you come up with that?  By the way dude, I'll bet you 100% both Trump and Musk have illegals working all over the damn place for them via the subcontractors involved with parts of their lives.  Your ignorance as to what illegals do in this country is astounding?  Do you buy groceries man or is that something that in "your area" is not relevant?

 

 

<<Cubs must only employ local legals.  I am literally laying on the floor with belly cramps from laughing violently at the entertainment of watching Cubs try to find help from this prescribed legal local bunch.>>

 

Your words?  

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, dealraker said:

That simply is revealing you can't find workers here who are legal, I just used Cubs pretending he was a contractor....I didn't recruit illegals for him.  The local legals, those with less education for instance, are mostly employed elsewhere than construction, often in lesser paying jobs than construction.  Why?  Construction is hard work, it is physical, and our legal young people are not choosing this work.  We have huge dairy farms in my area too, right up next to the commercial land we've bought.  These dairy farmers are in a bad-bad-bad place in that the guys they had working have all gone construction because of the boom, the only way they can employ people is to recruit from foreign countries or use illegals...because most Hispanic men (a few women) are the construction workers bunch.  They work like living hell and they are 100% with you and me against bad people who do crimes.  But do I go to the border recruiting illegals?  Really?  

 

The real world.  It isn't ideal, but it is what it is.

 

 

 

 

That's not what I said, and I don't find the prospect of not being able to hire legals at all amusing.  If young people choose not to work, that's a problem at the local level.  

[Buckeye]

3 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

That's not what I said, and I don't find the prospect of not being able to hire legals at all amusing.  If young people choose not to work, that's a problem at the local level.  

So Red, do you think the Trump admin is going to enact polices to address the problem of young men choosing not to work? 

[Buckeye]

4 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

You guys sound like The View. 70% of Americans surveyed say the economy is in bad shape and impacted them negatively. Take the elitist hat off for once and see it from their viewpoint.

 

They want their wages to go up, just like grocery prices and inflation. 

It's pretty damn simple.

 

The reason the election was lost was because the party kept telling the middle class how wonderful life was - and they didn't believe it.

Cubs, we all understand that 70% say (or feel) that the economy is in bad shape. What ever happened to the Right’s “Fuck your feelings”? Remember that saying? Doesn’t apply now?  
 

The question that Nathan is exploring is just because people feel this way doesn’t necessarily make it true. Does it? Perhaps this group of people are being fed a narrative that reinforces their negative beliefs versus actually searching out the more accurate information? 

[73 Reds]

3 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Put it this way:  Cubs and dealraker own the contracting business and we employ Mr. Illegal because we can't find Mr. Legal or his type to work.  Mr. Illegal works like living hell, has a wife and children...none on entitlements.  We, that's 73 Reds, dealraker, and Cubs and all of us, are considering kicking Mr. Illegal out of the country because he's labeled a threat while we are keeping Local High School Boy who grew up in a family whose history is decades of gov benefits.  Local Boy, Like Mr. Illegal, is of lesser IQ and not capable of working in some occupations but he is very capable of working in the construction business as a laborer.  But his culture now is of decades of awareness and dependency on federal benefits.  That's all he knows.  So we refuse to deal with this and we certainly are sensitive to he his family needs since he's a US citizen...and we send him monthly checks now and forevermore.

 

And Local Boy gets married of course and has a child which means...

 

...yea, the family gets more $ each month because of the child.  And another person is born into a culture where steady working for a living really isn't culturally possible.

 

And that, and only that, is why we have Mr. Illegal and why we employ him.  He came here for a distinct reason.

So once again, if you believe that is OK, you encourage more of the same - lawlessness. 

[Buckeye]

12 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

So once again, if you believe that is OK, you encourage more of the same - lawlessness. 

Red, do you understand that Deal is merely saying this is the way it is with Mr. Illegal and Mr. Illegal? I have never heard him say “ And I want more of this” which is what you are gaslighting/insinuating. I understand Deal to be saying…how is getting rid of Mr. Illegal going to help out Mr. Legal?  Is the argument that once we get rid of all of the Mr. illegals then all of the Mr. Legals, who have checked out, will decide that now is the time to work? 

[Spooky]

Have to agree with the thrust of @Spekulatius comments here. Looking at the raw data and the US economy seems to be in excellent shape and is much better than its global peers. Most countries would kill to have the economic strength and dynamism that the US is exhibiting. The problem, as usual, is that the benefits of this economic strength accrue to the top 1-10% of the population and the effects of inflation are felt more acutely by poorer segments of the population. Under the first Trump administration, ordinary people benefited since stimulus checks were sent directly to individuals. This is part of the reason why people remember his administration so fondly. The downside of this is that the distribution of stimulus directly into the economy is what led to the initial spike of inflation - too much money in the real economy chasing too few good with supply constraints. The stimulus in 2008/2009 didn't make it's way out of the banks that needed to repair balance sheets so it didn't have the same inflationary effect.

 

Now the really interesting part is whether or not Trump / the republican's policies will be better for 90% of the population. I'm not really sure. Tariffs would be inflationary. Also, if they want to extend the tax cuts they will need to cut spending elsewhere or blow out the deficit. Government spending is one of the key drivers of economic growth currently.

 

Biden's policies were going back to the period prior to neoliberalism - more industrial policy, stronger unions, infrastructure spending etc. There has been a surge in reshoring activity of US manufacturing jobs after reshoring progress declined under Trump. The largest surge in manufacturing-related construction spending on record, which appears directly tied to passage and implementation of the Chips bill; key locations include Arizona, Ohio and New Mexico. An industrial policy that overwhelmingly benefits GOP districts: ~75% of energy bill spending is going to GOP districts. Close to an all-time high in the labor force participation rate. Highest YTD equity gains in an election year since 1936.

 

Will be interesting to see what happens but Trump and his team are inheriting something quite good.

 

[james22]

One can be against illegal immigration and for increased legal immigration.

 

One can be against dependency cultures and for increased opportunities.

[Gregmal]

Well, lotta of this needs to be acknowledged as moot for the simple reason that EVERYTHING benefits the 1%. Good times the like grows, bad times you get amazing bargains that then supercharge future growth. At some point some sort of reset is required, which will require a non capitalist approach. 

[gfp]

14 minutes ago, Spooky said:

Close to an all-time high in the labor force participation rate.

 

This?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

[73 Reds]

22 minutes ago, james22 said:

One can be against illegal immigration and for increased legal immigration.

 

One can be against dependency cultures and for increased opportunities.

That's exactly right.  But one can't be for enforcement of laws but only those laws that suit one's own needs. 

[Viking]

I must say i just started reading this thread late. I am surprised by all the negativity about conditions in the US today. Really? Back in 2008 to 2010, I get it. But today? For starters, anyone that owns a house in the US since 2013 has likely seen its value increase substantially. At the same time, anyone with a pension (company or 401K) has likely done extremely well return wise over the past decade. And the set-up for both housing and equity markets looks very promising. 
 

These two tailwinds - housing and equities - benefit more than the top 1%, or the top 10%. My guess is well over 50% of all Americans have seen their net worth (including pensions/savings) pop significantly over the past decade. 
 

Coming at it from another angle, the opportunities to get educated have never been better. Whether that be from formal (post secondary) or informal sources (internet/YouTube etc). Education is a primary determinant in quality of life. Yes, the desire (to learn) also needs to be there.

Coming at it another way, the invention and adoption of broad based index funds like VOO (thank you Mr Boggle) has been a game changer for small/unsophisticated investors. It allows them to earn returns that likely are much better than the very wealthy (who likely use full service advisors that clip their 2%). 

 

I could go on and on about how much better off people are today than ever before. And I don’t think its close.
 

Another way to look at today is to compare it to the recent past. Are things today in the US as bad as the 2008-2010 period. My guess is today things are infinitely better. 
 

I remember  time when i was a kid when inflation was over 10%, interest rates (to buy a home) were over 15% and unemployment was over 10%. That was a shit show - good luck finding a job back then, any job. Good luck trying to learn something (hello local school or public library). I think the commission to buy a stock was 1.5% or 2% (same when you sold a position, which normally needed to happen to buy something new). The entire decade of the 1970’s or early 1980’s was better than today?
 

I think the big problem is most people look at the past through rose coloured glasses. They remember the good things as being much better than they really were. And they largely ignore all the bad and terrible things that existed. 
 

That is not to suggest that everything is better. Of course it’s not.  And every 20 years (generation) there tends to be different winners and losers. So to live a great life we do need to be open minded and flexible - and learn and be able to play both good offense and good defense. 
 

At the end of the day, when it comes to understanding how good things are today I think the optimism of Buffet and Munger is a great mental model to have. And if you don’t see it - to find the problem, probably a good place to start is to look in the mirror.

Edited Saturday at 10:01 PM by Viking

[Spooky]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

 

This?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

Source is from JPM

[Spooky]

22 minutes ago, Viking said:

At the end of the day, when it comes to understanding how good things are today I think the optimism of Buffet and Munger is a great mental model to have. And if you don’t see it - look in the mirror to find the problem.

 

Agree wholeheartedly. They key to happiness is lowering your expectations.

[Buckeye]

1 minute ago, Spooky said:

 

Agree wholeheartedly. The key to happiness is lowering your expectations.

 

 

I can’t help but wonder if the constant stream of people showing off their wealth (whether real or not) on IG, FB, X has left everyone in the 99% thinking they are not keeping up. That somehow they are missing out.  
 

Dudes driving around in 60k Pick-ups with 10k wheels complaining about inflation. Really? Go buy a 1990 Ford and fix it yourself. 
 

Same dudes buying their $5 10 pack of t-shirts from Wal-mart can’t understand how all of the jobs ended up in China. 

[james22]

34 minutes ago, Viking said:

I could go on and on about how much better off people are today than ever before. And I don’t think its close.

 

Material things count for little when everyone is convinced they are either the victim of or responsible for a shameful (racist, sexist, etc.) culture.

 

 

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, james22 said:

One can be against illegal immigration and for increased legal immigration.

 

One can be against dependency cultures and for increased opportunities.

 

Brilliant, simple...and correct.  I wish I could express myself with so few words!

 

 

[Spekulatius]

So how do we make money? The only thing I am convinced is that Trump creates more volatility. So keeping a stash of cash around for whatever opportunity arises seems like a good idea, especially  considering current valuations.

[sleepydragon]

Another Trump trade is M&A. The witch will be out 

[james22]

3 hours ago, james22 said:

Material things count for little when everyone is convinced they are either the victim of or responsible for a shameful (racist, sexist, etc.) culture.

 

And (especially men) missing purpose.

 

. . . younger men are looking for some grander purpose than working in a cubicle or going to school.

 

https://instapundit.substack.com/p/elon-unbound

 

https://babylonbee.com/news/study-finds-100-of-men-would-immediately-leave-their-desk-job-if-asked-to-embark-upon-a-trans-antarctic-expedition-on-a-big-wooden-ship