-Poll- How much Fairfax does the board own?

[Luke]

As as been asked in FFH 24 thread, interesting to see how much the board owns of FFH.

Edited February 23, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

So far at 0.1% of the company!

 

I guess its important to factor in outside guests of the board who could add significiant sums on top compared to the very active members here. 

Edited February 23, 2024 by Luca

[gfp]

This is dollars worth at current valuation or shares?

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Just wanted to point out that there is no option for 50-100k. 

 

You have 10-50k and then 100k. 

 

Someone who owns, say $60k of shares, has nowhere to vote. 

[steph]

What if you manage a fund? 

[Luke]

2 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Just wanted to point out that there is no option for 50-100k. 

 

You have 10-50k and then 100k. 

 

Someone who owns, say $60k of shares, has nowhere to vote. 

Just go for 100k then, didnt want to push the options, should only be a gross estimate 

[Luke]

36 minutes ago, steph said:

What if you manage a fund? 

Counts too, opt in for the total amount. 

[Luke]

3 hours ago, gfp said:

This is dollars worth at current valuation or shares?

USD at current valuation 

[Luke]

We should be above 1% of FFH for now! 

[Dynamic]

So far we're looking like at minimum 229 million USD or at least 0.89% of the market cap and could well be above 1% in reality if those who responded are generally truthful.

 

(EDIT: March 6th update, about 340 million USD minimum, so over 1%)

 

That's based on the first 102 responses weighted by the lower bound of each option.

 

There could be some rounding up but this is probably outweighed by the couple of votes for the unlimited top category, 50m+ which could in reality be considerably higher than the 100m USD I credited it as.

 

Edited March 6, 2024 by Dynamic
Updated figure

[Luke]

On 2/27/2024 at 11:04 PM, Dynamic said:

So far we're looking like at minimum 229 million USD or at least 0.89% of the market cap and could well be above 1% in reality if those who responded are generally truthful.

 

That's based on the first 102 responses weighted by the lower bound of each option.

 

There could be some rounding up but this is probably outweighed by the couple of votes for the unlimited top category, 50m+ which could in reality be considerably higher than the 100m USD I credited it as.

 

We also need to include the lurkers who are here via guest visit!

[Kizion]

A small follow up question as I see huge (relatively to my worth) individual investments in FFH - what is the % of FFH in your portfolio? 

[longlake95]

15% FFH + 5% FIH +0.5% FFH.PR.D = 20.5% or so…

[Hamburg Investor]

45% Fairfax Financial, 1.5% Fairfax India

[cwericb]

55.1% Fairfax, 2.3% Fairfax India. Relative to my stock portfolio.

[Dynamic]

31.4% between FFH.TO and FRFHF.

 

Happy to let it run to at least 60% if it looks like it will continue lumpy but fairly consistent 15%+ ROE, if nothing far superior comes along.

[Haryana]

On 3/1/2024 at 7:05 PM, Luca said:

We also need to include the lurkers who are here via guest visit!

 

Less than 5% is statistically Insignificant by scientific convention.

 

[Luke]

3 minutes ago, Haryana said:

 

Less than 5% is statistically Insignificant by scientific convention.

 

Is the guest to member ratio like that? Guests are 5% of the boards active users? 

Edited March 6, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

Almost 50% in FFH for me at the moment. 0 Plans to sell. 

[Haryana]

Just now, Luca said:

Is the guest to member ratio like that? Guests are 5% of the boards active users? 

 

No, even if you count the guest/lurker/public viewers of the forum, the total ownership of retail individual board readers would be insignificant if still less than 5%.

 

[John Hjorth]

On 3/2/2024 at 3:05 AM, Luca said:

We also need to include the lurkers who are here via guest visit!

 

 

@Luca,

 

What do you derive that from? Lurkers [Honestly, I personally prefer the terms 'visitors' or 'guests' in this context] can't post here on CoBF, so what is the logic behind your assumption that they have voting permissions, while no posting permissions?

[Luke]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

 

@Luca,

 

What do you derive that from? Lurkers [Honestly, I personally prefer the terms 'visitors' or 'guests' in this context] can't post here on CoBF, so what is the logic behind your assumption that they have voting permissions, while no posting permissions?

I wanted to say that the board might have influenced hundreds of millions of buying power onto fairfax due to many guests that read the fairfax posts but do not take part in the poll. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

It's a ~9.25% portfolio position for me which is basically right at my self-imposed limit of 10%. I also have ~3% in Fairfax India and some overlap with their individual investments like the ~2% allocation I have to Eurobank which is why I haven't added more to Fairfax despite technically having some room to do so. 

 

As part of my net worth, Fairfax/Fairfax India are just shy of 10% collectively. 

[cwericb]

Luca, let's face it, any of the thousands of members can say they have XXX million shares no matter how many shares they actually control, so it really only takes a couple of  posters to say they control 100,000,000 shares to throw the numbers way off. You have no way of knowing if they even have any shares at all in the company. And that's just members of the board never mind guests, who may enjoy screwing with the numbers.

Edited March 6, 2024 by cwericb

[Luke]

1 hour ago, cwericb said:

Luca, let's face it, any of the thousands of members can say they have XXX million shares no matter how many shares they actually control, so it really only takes a couple of  posters to say they control 100,000,000 shares to throw the numbers way off. You have no way of knowing if they even have any shares at all in the company. And that's just members of the board never mind guests, who may enjoy screwing with the numbers.

We wanted to try an estimate, we can never be sure of the numbers. This was not an attempt at an audit proof number, but rather to estimate how much the board could own. If we take the active member numbers for granted and speculate about the volume that comes into existence by guests and outside readers that have full access to the fairfax threads, i think its likely that the board owns quite the significant amount of the stock by now.