POLL - Likelihood of Taiwan Invasion by China before 2030

[shhughes1116]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

If only taiwan could get nuclear weapons 

Why do you think they don’t have any?
 

 It wouldn’t surprise me if they had a handful of plane-launched nukes, or potentially nuclear-tipped torpedos, for a doomsday scenario where China invades and things look bleak.  This would be the quickest way to torch an invasion fleet in the Taiwan Strait and buy some time to re-organize defenses on the island.  

 

i think everyone has seen Ukraine and the long-term results of being disarmed by the West.  I think we are going back to the age of nuclear weapon proliferation as a strategic deterrent. 

[Luca]

1 minute ago, shhughes1116 said:

Why do you think they don’t have any?
 

 It wouldn’t surprise me if they had a handful of plane-launched nukes, or potentially nuclear-tipped torpedos, for a doomsday scenario where China invades and things look bleak.  This would be the quickest way to torch an invasion fleet in the Taiwan Strait and buy some time to re-organize defenses on the island.  

 

i think everyone has seen Ukraine and the long-term results of being disarmed by the West.  I think we are going back to the age of nuclear weapon proliferation as a strategic deterrent. 

[Luca]

Could be possible they have some, i am not sure

[cubsfan]

44 minutes ago, shhughes1116 said:

Why do you think they don’t have any?
 

 It wouldn’t surprise me if they had a handful of plane-launched nukes, or potentially nuclear-tipped torpedos, for a doomsday scenario where China invades and things look bleak.  This would be the quickest way to torch an invasion fleet in the Taiwan Strait and buy some time to re-organize defenses on the island.  

 

i think everyone has seen Ukraine and the long-term results of being disarmed by the West.  I think we are going back to the age of nuclear weapon proliferation as a strategic deterrent. 

 

44 minutes ago, shhughes1116 said:

Why do you think they don’t have any?
 

 It wouldn’t surprise me if they had a handful of plane-launched nukes, or potentially nuclear-tipped torpedos, for a doomsday scenario where China invades and things look bleak.  This would be the quickest way to torch an invasion fleet in the Taiwan Strait and buy some time to re-organize defenses on the island.  

 

i think everyone has seen Ukraine and the long-term results of being disarmed by the West.  I think we are going back to the age of nuclear weapon proliferation as a strategic deterrent. 

 

You can be sure that Taiwan, Japan & the Philippines will nuke up if the USA is unwilling to continue to extend our defense umbrella to our Asian allies. USA protection against China/North Korea has always been implicit for decades in exchange for keeping nuclear proliferation under control. But now President Biden is dangerously close to abandoning Taiwan. The others in the South China Sea are watching - and our allies will certainly invest in their own protection (nukes) - should the US let Taiwan fall.

 

You can be sure of that. The faster Biden is cast out - the sooner the world will be.

Edited January 14 by cubsfan

[Spooky]

17 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

 

You can be sure that Taiwan, Japan & the Philippines will nuke up if the USA is unwilling to continue to extend our defense umbrella to our Asian allies. USA protection against China/North Korea has always been implicit for decades in exchange for keeping nuclear proliferation under control. But now President Biden is dangerously close to abandoning Taiwan. The others in the South China Sea are watching - and our allies will certainly invest in their own protection (nukes) - should the US let Taiwan fall.

 

You can be sure of that. The faster Biden is cast out - the sooner the world will be.

 

Not to get political but Biden has explicitly stated the US would defend Taiwan multiple times (against the advice of his advisors). Trump was the one who told Xi he didn't care about them cracking down on Hong Kong and would likely abandon Taiwan and also NATO. Seems like the America First / international isolationism is a republican priority. 

[ValueArb]

18 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

 

You can be sure that Taiwan, Japan & the Philippines will nuke up if the USA is unwilling to continue to extend our defense umbrella to our Asian allies. USA protection against China/North Korea has always been implicit for decades in exchange for keeping nuclear proliferation under control. But now President Biden is dangerously close to abandoning Taiwan. The others in the South China Sea are watching - and our allies will certainly invest in their own protection (nukes) - should the US let Taiwan fall.

 

You can be sure of that. The faster Biden is cast out - the sooner the world will be.

 

Biden has done more to defend Ukraine and Taiwan than any other US President, esp. the last one. 

 

I'm as critical as anyone of Biden, especially over running massive deficits while the economy is strong. I think we should be sending far more aid to Ukraine, esp. since we have thousands of first generation Bradleys, Abrams and F-16s just sitting in storage that are obsolete for our troops and will likely be scrapped, but still far better than anything the Russians have. 

 

But lets also think about the alternatives. Who is going to do better from the Republican side? Give me someone to vote for so I don't have to just vote against Trump.

[cubsfan]

I understand what Biden has said a year ago about defending Taiwan. He's waffling now with his more recent remarks about Taiwan's new government. Look at the mess he created in Afghanistan and it's easy to see why our allies in the Far East are very nervous.

 

Trump didn't have to do anything for China to know that Taiwan was off limits. China saw his threats to little rocket man in North Korea and the way he handled the Taliban, Iran's terrorists general Soleimani and Putin's Russian mercenaries - to know Trump meant business.

 

Say all you want - but you can't change these facts. US Foreign policy was a major victory during the Trump administration vs a total disaster today.  We had 4 years of relative peace versus a total shit show today.

 

Feel free to put your support behind a President that is totally comprised by payoffs from China.

 

 

 

Edited January 15 by cubsfan

[Spooky]

I am trying to keep an objective view and just focus on the facts / reality as it is and just limit my response to the China / Taiwan issue in this thread. I am not an American so hopefully I have more of an outsider's view.

 

I have not seen any creditable evidence that Biden has been compromised by payoffs to China and yet we have seen the opposite with Trump. China was by far the largest spender at Trump's properties while he was in office: https://www.wsj.com/politics/china-saudi-arabia-top-list-of-foreign-governments-that-spent-millions-at-trump-properties-during-his-presidency-277317cb. There is also the matter of the Chinese trademark's held by Ivanka that were fast tracked once Trump became president: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/09/22/ivankas-trademark-requests-were-fast-tracked-in-china-after-trump-was-elected/?sh=6f9b99e51d60. He also promised Xi in a phone call that he would remain silent on the issue of Hong Kong democracy: https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/04/politics/trump-xi-hong-kong-protests/index.html

 

Trump failed to divest / put his business interests into a blind trust as required under the constitution and is profiting from potential enemies of the US which creates a conflict of interest. As we have seen many times, trump is only looking to enrich himself and is a threat to American interests and the American led international world order.

 

If we want to talk about US foreign policy and international security more generally that probably needs a different thread.

[cubsfan]

^^^   It is best to just stick to the facts. And this thread is about Taiwan and the potential of an invasion. Unfortunately, that has everything to do with US foreign policy, like it or not.

 

- Hard to understand why you ignore the millions in payments the Biden family have received from Chinese. Those payments have been extensively documented by banks, and congressional investigations.  Feel free to argue those payment were "legitimately earned" and not the result of influence peddling by the Chinese to Joe Biden. Ask yourself why Hunter is in court for tax evasion and hiding payments?  Form your own conclusion on the facts - but I call it corruption.

But please tell me what the "legitimate" business was that earned them millions from China...

 

-  Why would you ignore the handling of North Korea by Trump in favor of our allies? Any reason?

 

-  Why is it NOW that China is making waves about invading Taiwan, but not during the Trump term?

   Any reason?

 

Keep avoiding the facts as you wish.

 

 

[Spooky]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

^^^   It is best to just stick to the facts. And this thread is about Taiwan and the potential of an invasion. Unfortunately, that has everything to do with US foreign policy, like it or not.

 

- Hard to understand why you ignore the millions in payments the Biden family have received from Chinese. Those payments have been extensively documented by banks, and congressional investigations.  Feel free to argue those payment were "legitimately earned" and not the result of influence peddling by the Chinese to Joe Biden. Ask yourself why Hunter is in court for tax evasion and hiding payments?  Form your own conclusion on the facts - but I call it corruption.

But please tell me what the "legitimate" business was that earned them millions from China...

 

-  Why would you ignore the handling of North Korea by Trump in favor of our allies? Any reason?

 

-  Why is it NOW that China is making waves about invading Taiwan, but not during the Trump term?

   Any reason?

 

Keep avoiding the facts as you wish.

 

 

 

Can you please send me a source for the millions in payments received by the Biden family from China? You are accusing me of ignoring facts but you didn't respond to any of the facts about Trump and his business interests. The reality is that trump has done exactly what you are accusing Biden of, it is all out in the open. How can you trust someone to act in the best interests of the US when his businesses received $5.5M from China during his presidency (and who knows what else was promised after he left office)? Someone who would throw Ukraine under the bus unless they give him a quid pro quo to help him get dirt on Joe Biden?

 

Trump's handling of Kim Jong Un / North Korea was a joke - do you not remember all the flattering / declaration of love by Trump? Do you not remember how he treated South Korea, a key ally of the US in the region? It didn't accomplish anything.

 

China has been making threats about Taiwan for so long, including under the Trump administration. This was just one article I found with a quick google search: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-vows-to-resolutely-smash-any-taiwan-independence-moves/2020/05/29/ae9c1af0-a158-11ea-be06-af5514ee0385_story.html

 

As part of a NATO country I am praying that Trump and the republicans do not come into power again. https://www.reuters.com/world/we-will-never-help-europe-under-attack-eu-official-cites-trump-saying-2024-01-10/

 

 

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Spooky said:

 

Can you please send me a source for the millions in payments received by the Biden family from China? You are accusing me of ignoring facts but you didn't respond to any of the facts about Trump and his business interests. The reality is that trump has done exactly what you are accusing Biden of, it is all out in the open. How can you trust someone to act in the best interests of the US when his businesses received $5.5M from China during his presidency (and who knows what else was promised after he left office)? Someone who would throw Ukraine under the bus unless they give him a quid pro quo to help him get dirt on Joe Biden?

 

Trump's handling of Kim Jong Un / North Korea was a joke - do you not remember all the flattering / declaration of love by Trump? Do you not remember how he treated South Korea, a key ally of the US in the region? It didn't accomplish anything.

 

China has been making threats about Taiwan for so long, including under the Trump administration. This was just one article I found with a quick google search: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-vows-to-resolutely-smash-any-taiwan-independence-moves/2020/05/29/ae9c1af0-a158-11ea-be06-af5514ee0385_story.html

 

As part of a NATO country I am praying that Trump and the republicans do not come into power again. https://www.reuters.com/world/we-will-never-help-europe-under-attack-eu-official-cites-trump-saying-2024-01-10/

 

 

 

You need to dig on your own sources @Spooky  I suggest starting with James Comer and the Biden family payoffs.

 

Payments to Joe Biden from Hunter’s Owasco PC corporate account are part of a pattern revealing Joe Biden knew about, participated in, and benefited from his family’s influence peddling schemes. As the Bidens received millions from foreign nationals and companies in China, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Kazakhstan.

 

The House Oversight Committee has identified over 20 shell companies and uncovered how the Bidens and their associates raked in over $24 million dollars between 2015 and 2019 by selling Joe Biden as “the brand.” Financial records obtained show Hunter Biden’s business account, Owasco PC, received payments from Chinese-state linked companies and other foreign nationals and companies.

 

https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-releases-direct-monthly-payments-to-joe-biden-from-hunter-bidens-business-entity/

 

 Hunter Biden is under an investigation by the Department of Justice for using Owasco PC for tax evasion and other serious crime.

 

The House Oversight Committee is releasing subpoenaed bank records that show Hunter Biden’s business entity, Owasco PC, made direct monthly payments to Joe Biden.

 

https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-reveals-how-joe-biden-received-laundered-china-money/

 

The money trail begins in July 2017 when Hunter Biden demanded payment from his Chinese Communist Party (CCP) linked associate. On July 30, 2017, Hunter Biden sent a message to Raymond Zhao—a CEFC associate—demanding a $10 million dollar capital payment and claimed his father, Joe Biden, was sitting in the room. CEFC is a Chinese energy company linked to the CCP. The Bidens began working with CEFC when Joe Biden was Vice President.

 

On August 8, 2017, Northern International Capital, a Chinese company affiliated with CEFC, sent $5 million to Hudson West III, a joint venture established by Hunter Biden and CEFC associate Gongwen Dong. That same day, Hudson West III sent $400,000 to Owasco, P.C., an entity owned and controlled by Hunter Biden. On August 14, 2017, Hunter Biden wired $150,000 to Lion Hall Group, a company owned by President Biden’s brother James and sister-in-law Sara Biden. On August 28, 2017, Sara Biden withdrew $50,000 in cash from Lion Hall Group. Later the same day, she deposited it into her and James Biden’s personal checking account. On September 3, 2017, Sara Biden cut a check to Joe Biden for $40,000 for a “loan repayment.”

 

You need to do your homework @Spooky - because you are ignoring the facts once again. You still have not told me what legitimate business the Biden family was running?

 

Edited January 15 by cubsfan

[cubsfan]

Just for you. @Spooky

 

A bank investigator just doing his job...

 

https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Bank-Email.pdf

 

An email obtained by Chairman Comer’s subpoena reveals the bank investigator’s concerns about the initial $5 million funding from Northern International Capital Holdings, a CEFC affiliated entity linked to the Chinese government, and the subsequent erratic payments to Hudson West III, Hunter Biden’s joint venture with a Chinese national, and Owasco, P.C, an entity owned by Hunter Biden. The bank investigator emphasized how Hudson West III did not have any investment projects at the time, yet money was being paid to Owasco, P.C. without any services provided. The bank investigator also noted China’s pattern of targeting children of politicians to purchase political influence through “sweetheart deals.”

 

 

[Spooky]

Sure I'll do my own research with a view to finding the truth. Even assuming there is some truth to this, how can you go after Biden while ignoring what Trump and his children have received from from China? Don't you think he has a conflict of interest? It looks like from the materials you sent Biden received $40,000 but Trump's businesses received $5.5M (that we know of) from the Chinese government while he was president.

 

Edited January 15 by Spooky

[cubsfan]

11 minutes ago, Spooky said:

Sure I'll do my own research with a view to finding the truth. Even assuming there is some truth to this, how can you go after Biden while ignoring what Trump and his children have received from from China? Don't you think he has a conflict of interest? It looks like from the materials you sent Biden received $40,000 but Trump's businesses received $5.5M (that we know of) from the Chinese government while he was president.

 

 

Keep your head in the sand @Spooky Your gaslighting won't work here. $40,000??

 

Try $24,000,000

 

The House Oversight Committee has identified over 20 shell companies and uncovered how the Bidens and their associates raked in over $24 million dollars between 2015 and 2019 by selling Joe Biden as “the brand.” Financial records obtained show Hunter Biden’s business account, Owasco PC, received payments from Chinese-state linked companies and other foreign nationals and companies.

 

You asked for the links and I gave them to you..

 

You still have not told me what legitimate business the Bidens were running.

Edited January 15 by cubsfan

[Spooky]

Ok I am done with this discussion. There is no point.

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, Spooky said:

Ok I am done with this discussion. There is no point.

 

Yeah, you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink.

 

6 hours ago, Spooky said:

 

I have not seen any creditable evidence that Biden has been compromised by payoffs to China

 

You just keep looking @Spooky

[Spooky]

"Feel free to put your support behind a President that is totally comprised by payoffs from China." -> Trump's business receives millions from the Chinese Gov't while in office -> *crickets*

[Gregmal]

In a very basic way, the difference is that Trump and family ran a business for decades. Before all the libs lost their mind, he was even regarded as fairly good at many aspects of it. The Biden family has done nothing but get rich off “serving” as an elected official. Nothing symbolizes what’s wrong with politics better than the Biden family. 

[Parsad]

Cubs, will you shut the eff up regarding your conspiracy theories:

 

https://www.factcheck.org/2023/12/gop-misleading-claims-in-biden-impeachment-investigation/

 

You guys keep screwing up the threads with all of this shit...both sides! 

 

Yeah, Hunter Biden is scum and should go to jail, but just stop and admit that Trump is as big a piece of shit, instead of pretending he's something special.

 

The saddest part about all of this is that people on both sides are trying to excuse both Biden (family) and Trump (family).  Maybe if both parties said, "Yeah, these two guys suck!"  Maybe then the U.S. will get somebody worthy running for President!

 

Cheers!

[economonoc]

On 1/12/2024 at 12:40 PM, ValueArb said:

China basically hasn't conducted offensive military campaigns for hundreds of years, they are huge but insular and have always valued holding their country together over expansionism.

What about Tibet?

[Blugolds11]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

Cubs, will you shut the eff up regarding your conspiracy theories:

 

https://www.factcheck.org/2023/12/gop-misleading-claims-in-biden-impeachment-investigation/

 

You guys keep screwing up the threads with all of this shit...both sides! 

 

Yeah, Hunter Biden is scum and should go to jail, but just stop and admit that Trump is as big a piece of shit, instead of pretending he's something special.

 

The saddest part about all of this is that people on both sides are trying to excuse both Biden (family) and Trump (family).  Maybe if both parties said, "Yeah, these two guys suck!"  Maybe then the U.S. will get somebody worthy running for President!

 

Cheers!

 

+1

 

It's like arguing about who is the best WWF wrestler, it doesnt matter, they're all characters. 

The country deserves better than Biden or Trump, who that is I dont know.

[Spekulatius]

On the topic of a Taiwan invasion , I voted 2030-2040. I don’t think Xi is ready to challenge the US and invade Taiwan before that and maybe even not on this timeframe. I do feel like Xi will do something then, perhaps contra to better judgement, because he is driven by ideology and then his time will run out. I think he want to see his picture on walls after the is gone as the great leader of China.

[cubsfan]

3 hours ago, Parsad said:

Cubs, will you shut the eff up regarding your conspiracy theories:

 

https://www.factcheck.org/2023/12/gop-misleading-claims-in-biden-impeachment-investigation/

 

You guys keep screwing up the threads with all of this shit...both sides! 

 

Yeah, Hunter Biden is scum and should go to jail, but just stop and admit that Trump is as big a piece of shit, instead of pretending he's something special.

 

The saddest part about all of this is that people on both sides are trying to excuse both Biden (family) and Trump (family).  Maybe if both parties said, "Yeah, these two guys suck!"  Maybe then the U.S. will get somebody worthy running for President!

 

Cheers!

 

Conspiracy theories??  It's in the congressional investigation documents, bank examiner records and the evidence is sitting right in from of you.  And this is a thread about the Taiwan invasion threat. You just don't like the evidence.

 

Cheers.

[Spooky]

10 hours ago, Gregmal said:

In a very basic way, the difference is that Trump and family ran a business for decades. Before all the libs lost their mind, he was even regarded as fairly good at many aspects of it. The Biden family has done nothing but get rich off “serving” as an elected official. Nothing symbolizes what’s wrong with politics better than the Biden family. 

 

But this is in essence my point - doesn't Trump's foreign business interests create a conflict of interest that may lead him to make decisions that are not aligned with US interests including potentially not supporting Taiwan? President Jimmy Carter, for example, put his Georgia peanut business into a trust arrangement.  

 

[zippy1]

26 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

But this is in essence my point - doesn't Trump's foreign business interests create a conflict of interest that may lead him to make decisions that are not aligned with US interests including potentially not supporting Taiwan? President Jimmy Carter, for example, put his Georgia peanut business into a trust arrangement.  

 

@Spooky
I can see your point. 
However, your choice of using Jimmy Carter as an example is really ironic for Taiwanese. 
Jimmy Carter is the US president, who cut off the diplomatic relationship between US and Taiwan.  Congress had to force the Taiwan Relation Act on him.   If you do a poll in Taiwan about which US president treated Taiwan worst over the years, I think likely they likely would tell you that it is Jimmy Carter.
But I do see your point about the conflict of interests.  CCP is known for "connecting" to the power elites in the democracies to affect the policies.  They do not have to limit themselves to only one party, to be frank.