Cryptocurrencies

[rkbabang]

8 hours ago, UK said:

customers didn’t simply close out their accounts; rather, they told the bank they were moving their money out of crypto and thus didn’t need to keep so much of it with Silvergate. Even customers who are focused on digital currencies pulled their cash to invest in supersafe assets like Treasurys, executives said

 

The old buy high, sell low trick that the average investor seems so fond of.

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 hours ago, rkbabang said:

 

The old buy high, sell low trick that the average investor seems so fond of.

 

 

Yup. When sentiment changes, the deposits will likely come back. SI just needs to survive and have liquidity until then at which point earnings power will recover some. 

 

They did well managing credit risk through this down cycle. I imagine they'll be well positioned for the next one. Just a matter of diversifying client base more and paying more competitive rates on deposits to keep them. 

 

I expect at some point in the next 6-9 months we might see a sentiment change as BTC heads into the halving of early 2024. 

[jfan]

With the least efficient miner establishing the floor price...using the following assumptions

140 th/s rig costing $5750 usd new, lasting 4 years

$0.079/kwh

1.2x yoy difficulty increase

10% discount rate

 

Purchasing the miners with BTC, will yield 1.14 mined BTC for every 1 BTC spent.

 

Or the discounted cost of mining 1 BTC is ~ $14.5k usd. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ValueArb]

So how long until Binance collapses? It's balance sheet appears to be as big of a scam as FTXs.

 

https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/the-binance-scam-chain

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, jfan said:

With the least efficient miner establishing the floor price...using the following assumptions

140 th/s rig costing $5750 usd new, lasting 4 years

$0.079/kwh

1.2x yoy difficulty increase

10% discount rate

 

Purchasing the miners with BTC, will yield 1.14 mined BTC for every 1 BTC spent.

 

Or the discounted cost of mining 1 BTC is ~ $14.5k usd. 

 

 

I like this idea of cost of production as a relative floor.

 

But is $0.079/kwh reasonable going forward in the US? 

 

I only know what my rates are for power, which institutional would be less, but it's WAY more than $0.07 where I'm at for all forms - coal/gas/solar/etc and has been climbing year after year. 

 

I'm probably paying something closer to $0.11-0.12/kwh on average throughout the year and I expect it'll be higher next year. Is $0.079/kwh for institutional demand a sustainable input for the next 4-years that you're assuming the rigs operate for?

 

 

[ValueArb]

 

"Key bitcoin developer calls on FBI to recover $3.6M in digital coin

So much for enthusiasts championing the decentralization of cryptocurrencies."

 

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/01/key-bitcoin-developer-calls-on-fbi-to-recover-3-6m-in-digital-coin/

[TwoCitiesCapital]

38 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

"Key bitcoin developer calls on FBI to recover $3.6M in digital coin

So much for enthusiasts championing the decentralization of cryptocurrencies."

 

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/01/key-bitcoin-developer-calls-on-fbi-to-recover-3-6m-in-digital-coin/

 

I'm struggling to see how asking for help in enforcing property rights is antithetical to the decentralization of money, but maybe that's just me

 

I suppose if you don't think the government should be in the business of subsidizing high fructose corn, you also can't expect them to step in when a grocery store is robbed of products that contain it? 

 

Edited January 6, 2023 by TwoCitiesCapital

[rkbabang]

32 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

"Key bitcoin developer calls on FBI to recover $3.6M in digital coin

So much for enthusiasts championing the decentralization of cryptocurrencies."

 

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/01/key-bitcoin-developer-calls-on-fbi-to-recover-3-6m-in-digital-coin/

Help me understand. Some guy got robbed due to bad security on his internet connected devices and is crying about it to the feds. Aaaand this translates to all enthusiasts (millions and millions of them) will stop championing the decentralization of cryptocurrencies?   I don't see how those dots connect.  It's more like you found a story about some poor guy who got robbed and it confirms your preexisting biases.

[jfan]

2 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

I like this idea of cost of production as a relative floor.

 

But is $0.079/kwh reasonable going forward in the US? 

 

I only know what my rates are for power, which institutional would be less, but it's WAY more than $0.07 where I'm at for all forms - coal/gas/solar/etc and has been climbing year after year. 

 

I'm probably paying something closer to $0.11-0.12/kwh on average throughout the year and I expect it'll be higher next year. Is $0.079/kwh for institutional demand a sustainable input for the next 4-years that you're assuming the rigs operate for?

 

 

Agreed. Electrical costs are likely higher. Which means the floor price is higher as well. At $0.12/kwh, you are looking at $18-19k. 

 

https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/global-energy-prices-by-country/

 

The link above has a good list of electrical costs per kWh across the globe.

 

Fooling around with numbers, 3x 100 th/s rigs that cost about $1500 each, will get a positive return at $0.12/kWh with a floor price of $12-13k.

 

This of course assuming no friction wrt to obtaining rigs, access to hosting space, getting them up and running, no maintenance costs, etc.

 

Obviously, the Ponzi scheme/manipulated BTC price could push below this floor. 

 

But unlike proof of stake or altcoins, proof of work and mining economics suggest there is some fundamentals at work.

[ValueArb]

4 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

I'm struggling to see how asking for help in enforcing property rights is antithetical to the decentralization of money, but maybe that's just me

 

I suppose if you don't think the government should be in the business of subsidizing high fructose corn, you also can't expect them to step in when a grocery store is robbed of products that contain it? 

 

I can’t answer that, as I didn’t write the story or headline. 

[ValueArb]

4 hours ago, rkbabang said:

Help me understand. Some guy got robbed due to bad security on his internet connected devices and is crying about it to the feds. Aaaand this translates to all enthusiasts (millions and millions of them) will stop championing the decentralization of cryptocurrencies?   I don't see how those dots connect.  It's more like you found a story about some poor guy who got robbed and it confirms your preexisting biases.

Just a reminder to protect your keys.

[wachtwoord]

8 hours ago, ValueArb said:

I can’t answer that, as I didn’t write the story or headline. 

But you did cite the poorly written article here for some reason?

 

The guy who was stolen from os one of the stronger defenders of the immutability of the blockchain btw. Fought hard against the blocksize increase at the end of 2017 and won via by uniting the users via UASF.

 

Overall he's a strange guy though, eg anti-papal catholic, pro-monarchy (the old style) etc, but he holds true to his convictions.

[wachtwoord]

17 hours ago, ValueArb said:

So how long until Binance collapses? It's balance sheet appears to be as big of a scam as FTXs.

 

https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/the-binance-scam-chain

Yes I wouldn't trust any exchange that issues its own (scam tokens out of thin air.

 

Also: the more non-BTC things they list, the more likely to go bust. Same thing with offering more leverage.

[ValueArb]

6 hours ago, wachtwoord said:

But you did cite the poorly written article here for some reason?

 

The guy who was stolen from os one of the stronger defenders of the immutability of the blockchain btw. Fought hard against the blocksize increase at the end of 2017 and won via by uniting the users via UASF.

 

Overall he's a strange guy though, eg anti-papal catholic, pro-monarchy (the old style) etc, but he holds true to his convictions.

 

It's an interesting article from a leading science site. We should focus on facts and arguments, not personal attacks. Otherwise I would have thrown out the article entirely had I known he was pro-monarchy;)

[wachtwoord]

On 1/7/2023 at 7:54 PM, ValueArb said:

 

It's an interesting article from a leading science site. We should focus on facts and arguments, not personal attacks. Otherwise I would have thrown out the article entirely had I known he was pro-monarchy;)

 

No it's not. It' a terrible article! Not because of the source but because of the content. The title could have told you that already.

 

Funny how you speak of personal attack (ad hominem) while the only reason you share this piece of trash Larping as a serious article is ad ad auctoritatem ("leading science site").

[DeepSouth]

On 12/30/2022 at 9:05 PM, ValueArb said:

 

There is no way the feds can stop the inevitable rise in interest rates. Our debt to GDP rate is the highest in our history, inflation is still roaring and the fed has already committed to 6%+ rates next year. No one is going to go back to loaning the US government money at 1% a year.

 

You don't seem to understand how the rates or bond markets work. Maybe you won't buy treasuries at 1% but majority of $$$ are held by institutions with vastly different goals/priorities than you. Primary dealers are mandated to bid on treasury auctions. The Fed has many tools to control the yield curve as well.

 

Inflation is plummeting.

[ValueArb]

3 hours ago, wachtwoord said:

 

No it's not. It' a terrible article! Not because of the source but because of the content. The title could have told you that already.

 

Funny how you speak of personal attack (ad hominem) while the only reason you share this piece of trash Larping as a serious article is ad ad auctoritatem ("leading science site").

 

If you can't rebut the facts of the article, by all means vent if it makes you feel better.

 

There is no reason the crypto thread can't carry a balance of views.

[ValueArb]

50 minutes ago, DeepSouth said:

 

You don't seem to understand how the rates or bond markets work. Maybe you won't buy treasuries at 1% but majority of $$$ are held by institutions with vastly different goals/priorities than you. Primary dealers are mandated to bid on treasury auctions. The Fed has many tools to control the yield curve as well.

 

Inflation is plummeting.

 

Inflation better be plummeting soon or institutions are going to stop buying paper that pays less than the inflation rate.

[Sweet]

39 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

If you can't rebut the facts of the article, by all means vent if it makes you feel better.

 

There is no reason the crypto thread can't carry a balance of views.

@wachtwoord seems to think that if you don’t share his view on crypto, you don’t understand crypto, and you should not post in the thread

 

Its perfectly possibly to understand yet disagree.  An example of that is the Amazon thread recently.  You won’t find anyone in there asking why they are posting something in a topic if they aren’t bullish.

 

Childish.

 

Edited January 9, 2023 by Sweet

[ValueArb]

Are both Binance and Huobi in the midst of bank runs that are challenging their solvency?

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierpaz/2023/01/09/binance-is-bleeding-assets-12-billion-gone-in-less-than-60-days/?sh=c727d5515cfb

[gfp]

Is Houbi owned by the guy who paid up for the lunch with Buffett?

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

Inflation better be plummeting soon or institutions are going to stop buying paper that pays less than the inflation rate.

 

That's not how it's historically worked. Plenty of times in US history where short and intermediate term bonds have persistently had negative real returns/rates. 

 

 

[wachtwoord]

22 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

If you can't rebut the facts of the article, by all means vent if it makes you feel better.

 

There is no reason the crypto thread can't carry a balance of views.

 

What arguments? The title by itself already is internally inconsistent.

 

Balance views is great but eg if my arguments against gold would be "people is smelly" would that be a view you would take seriously? Your article is on that same level.

 

But why I challenge you cause when I called you out on the logical manure of the article you shared your reply was "I don't know I didn't post it" then why share it? If no reason it's just spam.

 

[wachtwoord]

22 hours ago, Sweet said:

@wachtwoord seems to think that if you don’t share his view on crypto, you don’t understand crypto, and you should not post in the thread

 

Its perfectly possibly to understand yet disagree.  An example of that is the Amazon thread recently.  You won’t find anyone in there asking why they are posting something in a topic if they aren’t bullish.

 

Childish.

 

 

No, not in the slightest. Just when such "critism" is entirely made of non sequitors, ad auctoritatem, ad hominems and other logical fallacies as they hold zero merit. 

Good luck with the mental gymnastics!

Edited January 10, 2023 by wachtwoord

[SharperDingaan]

19 hours ago, ValueArb said:

Are both Binance and Huobi in the midst of bank runs that are challenging their solvency?

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierpaz/2023/01/09/binance-is-bleeding-assets-12-billion-gone-in-less-than-60-days/?sh=c727d5515cfb

 

Just because they are bleeding assets doesn't mean that they automatically bankrupt. The fact that they are still in business implies that there is currently more value in squeezing the orange to extract its juice, than simply crashing it. Of course, eventually the juice runs out .....

 

SD