Dave86ch Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 10 hours ago, rkbabang said: You have to love it. I just made another unplanned buy. I couldn't pass up a buying opportunity given to me by government incompetence. Ahahah same here Eric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave86ch Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 (edited) 6 hours ago, ValueArb said: Why would BTC decline based on that news? I would think it would have gone up if the listing approval was true. It declined on the news that it was false. By the way, there is a non-zero chance that Elon took his revenge. For the Tor, everything is possible, but we are talking about global peer-to-peer technologies. You can cut some heads and control some of them, but other heads will pop up. I wrote my first article on Bitcoin years ago, where I was critical in a sense, but I got many points and Bitcoin was at 13k USD. I've changed my mind over time on many things, now my thesis is way more solid and articulate. https://dscompounding.com/2021/03/04/cryptocurrencies/ Edited January 10 by Dave86ch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 11 hours ago, ValueArb said: Why would BTC decline based on that news? I would think it would have gone up if the listing approval was true. Buy the rumor, sell the news. Can't be surprised now if it happens again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave86ch Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 (edited) The trojan horse is inside the walls. Edited January 11 by Dave86ch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Whats the fair value for bitcoin right now, i.e at which value should I load up the truck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 hours ago, Luca said: Whats the fair value for bitcoin right now, i.e at which value should I load up the truck? Cheaper is obviously better but Bitcoin has been underpriced for its entire existance while its exact value is impossible to tell with any sort of precision. Definitely not an investment for everyone. As with any investment I'd advise against trying to time it in the general case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 https://thecryptobasic.com/2024/01/11/ripple-ceo-confirms-no-ipo-soon-as-ripple-to-buy-back-285m-of-its-shares/ Whats funny is if one removed the name "Ripple", investors would be ejaculating all over the place at the chance to buy an early stage growth company at 50%+ discount to just its cash an equivalents, WHILE the company was buying back stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 14 minutes ago, Gregmal said: https://thecryptobasic.com/2024/01/11/ripple-ceo-confirms-no-ipo-soon-as-ripple-to-buy-back-285m-of-its-shares/ Whats funny is if one removed the name "Ripple", investors would be ejaculating all over the place at the chance to buy an early stage growth company at 50%+ discount to just its cash an equivalents, WHILE the company was buying back stock. But Ripple labs are a bunch of scammers with no product. Goes to show that just the quantitative data rarely tells the entire story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 (edited) 3 hours ago, Luca said: Whats the fair value for bitcoin right now, i.e at which value should I load up the truck? ~35k at today's value plus some discounting factor for expected future growth which has been 50-100% per year. I am going to be buying up to $50-60k this cycle Edited January 11 by TwoCitiesCapital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brobro777 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Holy moly look at the juice running in BTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The trade or momentum tailwind with these has always been the exciting part. Whether or not they become full blown gold or fiat or whatever...thats a long ways out and the most likely outcome is that its something in between but in between works because thats net adoption. But the opportunity to make money has always been huge, and its largely fueled by FOMO. Theres bubble characteristics, but we ve gotten these mini bubbles several times now even just in the last 5 years or so. Mini bubbles are also traditionally things that occur with early excitement about longer term, real advancements and life changing disruptor type shifts. Of course, the reason for the opportunity is purely because of lazy, arrogant, and bizarrely pompous financial people just immediately declaring this stuff to be worthless because THEY dont understand it. I mean when Munger, Buffett, and Dimon are full blown trashing stuff, its open season for all the self righteous, textbook value bros to start chirping and feeling good about making statements that really just brandish misplaced confidence and an information void. Ultimately, this is a recurring theme...people are lazy and just dont know how to value things unless there are easy shortcuts. The most classic of which is the simple, "whats the cashflow, now Ill decide a multiple, then we arrive at the valuation"...If this didnt exist Id have to have had to work so much harder to make a lot of my money...so Im thankful for its existence. But really...gold has no utility over bitcoin. Its got no utility over a tennis ball if the argument is just "make jewelry" cuz I can find tennis ball jewelry on Etsy or something too. What a silly argument. Two things matter, and its supply and demand. Inflation is a kicker. But ask people to try and estimate supply and demand and they get all mad and thinks its unfair they have to look forward and make predictions vs the simplicity and ease of looking backward at financial statements....errrr, yea where have we seen this before too? So I dont really own any of this stuff directly anymore; after the runup in 2021 I cleared it after a nice multi year multi bagger sprint, but do have a fairly reasonable private investment in Ripple and am fairly optimistic people willing to play ball in this space continue to make money. And thats the name of the game. Not "my cashflow analysis is better than yours"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fly Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 hours ago, Dave86ch said: The trojan horse is inside the walls. So true, this ETF issue will be the rise and the fall of this cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Anyone like Microstrategy here? -16% over the last 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, james22 said: Anyone like Microstrategy here? -16% over the last 5 days. Haven't looked, but at one point they were at a massive premium to the BTC they held per share. Many of these crypto names were taken as proxy exposure since we couldn't get an ETF. It wouldn't shock me if the scarcity premium is wrung out of a few of them now that BTC can be owned directly. MSTR will probably trade for the value of its BTC reserves plus a small premium for the software business going forward of I had to guess. Just dunno how that compares to the current share price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Fly said: So true, this ETF issue will be the rise and the fall of this cycle. Part of me believes this. The other part of me thinks this might be where the traditional book bust cycle gets broken - or perhaps it gets broken AFTER this cycle. If this does take on a staple approach in investors' portfolios of 1-5%, and as the halving becomes less impactful relative to daily traded volume, I expect the traditional boom/bust cycle over 4 years may be significantly more muted as consistent/passive flows come in as a base of demand. I don't have strong conviction here - but it does make me wonder if this is a game changer relative to it's prior history. Edited January 11 by TwoCitiesCapital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfan Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I'm a bit confused about the difference in cash redemption vs in-kind ETFs. My basic understanding is that cash redemption requires the ETF to go out an purchase BTC with the cash they have in hand vs in-kind, allows the ETF to find a market marker that can exchange similar assets with others. Is my understanding correct? If it is the cash redemption, would the implications mean that the number of transactions at the base layer also increase in volume and so will the transaction fees due to higher demand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, jfan said: I'm a bit confused about the difference in cash redemption vs in-kind ETFs. My basic understanding is that cash redemption requires the ETF to go out an purchase BTC with the cash they have in hand vs in-kind, allows the ETF to find a market marker that can exchange similar assets with others. Is my understanding correct? If it is the cash redemption, would the implications mean that the number of transactions at the base layer also increase in volume and so will the transaction fees due to higher demand? Perhaps. It really depends on who they go to. If they're using Coinbase, for instance, and making those buys OTC instead of open market then it's possible none of it gets put on the base layer until the ETF moves the BTC to cold storage. My understanding of the biggest impact is that there will be a lag between receiving the cash and being able to execute the BTC trade. This lag exposes the ETF provider to market/risk profit/loss during that period. This they will widen the spreads at which they're advertising the BTC to be bought/sold at for a unit of the fund. This will likely lead to higher deviation from the underlying asset than most ETFs experience as this risk/time spread will be built in to the price/profits expected to peg to the underlying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 3 hours ago, james22 said: Anyone like Microstrategy here? -16% over the last 5 days. I added a little today. I think the decline is because Saylor is exercising stock options and the FUD is "Saylor is SELLING!!!!!!!!!". The guy has a $1 salary for the last 10 years, owns > 20% of the company, and people panic when he wants to exercise some options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 11 hours ago, Dave86ch said: The trojan horse is inside the walls. Not many Greeks fitting inside that horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 54 minutes ago, rkbabang said: I added a little today. Rather than an ETF? Mind sharing why? I'm kind of liking the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 22 minutes ago, james22 said: Rather than an ETF? Mind sharing why? I'm kind of liking the idea. I like the idea of an operating company using profits & stock to buy Bitcoin. And I like Saylor. Saylor's taken a deep dive into Bitcoin and is as knowledgeable and enthusiastic about it as anyone I've seen. I know he's going to acquire as much of it as he can, hold it and never sell. I already own a significant portion of my net worth in BTC directly, so I like to put some in MSTR as a levered bet. And, I'm not a fan of the large financial institutions (Blackrock, et al) and think they have too much control as it is. They've done a lot of damage to the world with their ESG/DEI nonsense. The reason I don't own any index funds is that I don't like giving companies like that my money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 (edited) 15 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: ~35k at today's value plus some discounting factor for expected future growth which has been 50-100% per year. I am going to be buying up to $50-60k this cycle My best guess is fair value is around $42k today. By the end of 2024, $100k. Ps thanks for the ETF response Edited January 12 by jfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paarslaars Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/01/11/investment-giant-vanguard-blocks-clients-from-buying-bitcoin-etfs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave86ch Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 12 hours ago, james22 said: Not many Greeks fitting inside that horse. Satoshi showed that a group of motivated, tech-savvy people is enough to destroy a system from the inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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