TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 25 Posted February 25 (edited) The drop from $69k to $20k in 2022 killed Terra Luna, FTX, Three Arrows, Block Fi, and Celsius. The drop from $125k to $60k in 2025 hasn't killed anyone yet (though Gemini seems stressed). This is a significantly larger loss - and yet, the ecosystem is proving more resilient despite the narratives of death spirals at treasury companies and how "leveraged" MSTR is. Majority of the flows have remained in the ETFs, treasury companies have largely maintained their stacks, sell-offs have been orderly, and no major infrastructure/crypto native firms have gone under as a result of a $1+ trillion drop in market capitalization. I think this is telling. Just like the lows get higher and the highs get higher every cycle, the industry resilience is improving too. Edited February 25 by TwoCitiesCapital
Paarslaars Posted February 26 Posted February 26 Interesting read on Jane Street involvement in Terra and how they are manipulating BTC today.
Fly Posted February 26 Posted February 26 7 hours ago, Paarslaars said: Interesting read on Jane Street involvement in Terra and how they are manipulating BTC today. No surprise TBH. This was an expected byproduct of institutionalization of BTC and ETFs.
SharperDingaan Posted February 26 Posted February 26 (edited) 16 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: I think this is telling. Just like the lows get higher and the highs get higher every cycle, the industry resilience is improving too. The reality is that as the industry gets both bigger, and more fragmented, it takes both a cascade failure and much bigger losses to put the industry down; i.e. the industry becomes progressively more anti-fragile. It's one of the chief reasons why we are comfortable with repurchasing BTC in quantity, once there has been a significant industry shake out. BTC at < USD 60,000 is a lot less risky that BTC at < USD 70,000, primarily because the ecosystem has also been sold down; the USD 10,000 price difference is just bonus. Post repurchase ... we just need to wait for mean reversion, then predatorily take that USD 10,000 price difference off the table. Not the industry pitch SD Edited February 26 by SharperDingaan
Paarslaars Posted February 26 Posted February 26 4 hours ago, Fly said: No surprise TBH. This was an expected byproduct of institutionalization of BTC and ETFs. An illegal byproduct no? As far as I understand this is still market manipulation
Fly Posted February 27 Posted February 27 7 hours ago, Paarslaars said: An illegal byproduct no? As far as I understand this is still market manipulation I should clarify and say this has been going on since BTC first appeared on an exchange and it isn't a surprise to see it continuing now that tradfi is involved. Illegal or not is beyond my scope.
wachtwoord Posted February 27 Posted February 27 On 2/26/2026 at 12:12 AM, TwoCitiesCapital said: The drop from $69k to $20k in 2022 killed Terra Luna, FTX, Three Arrows, Block Fi, and Celsius. The drop from $125k to $60k in 2025 hasn't killed anyone yet (though Gemini seems stressed). This is a significantly larger loss - and yet, the ecosystem is proving more resilient despite the narratives of death spirals at treasury companies and how "leveraged" MSTR is. Majority of the flows have remained in the ETFs, treasury companies have largely maintained their stacks, sell-offs have been orderly, and no major infrastructure/crypto native firms have gone under as a result of a $1+ trillion drop in market capitalization. I think this is telling. Just like the lows get higher and the highs get higher every cycle, the industry resilience is improving too. You mean smaller drop? 69 to 20 is a bigger drop than 125 to 60.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 27 Posted February 27 (edited) 35 minutes ago, wachtwoord said: You mean smaller drop? 69 to 20 is a bigger drop than 125 to 60. In % maybe, but not in $ terms. The loss in Q4 2025 dwarfs the entire market cap of BTC in 2021/2022. Bitcoin would have had to have gone to zero with leverage for the monetary losses to approach what the system is currently sustaining - and we haven't yet had a single bankruptcy of any notable firm or even much in the way of miner capitulation. That's impressive. Edited February 27 by TwoCitiesCapital
wachtwoord Posted February 28 Posted February 28 Yes but % is all that matters of course otherwise any btc crash is always the largest.
tede02 Posted February 28 Posted February 28 Some of the structured products in an ETF wrapper which track bitcoin have piqued my interest. The funds with start dates in October are way down so you can buy today with no downside (in the outcome period) but with big upside.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 28 Posted February 28 2 hours ago, wachtwoord said: Yes but % is all that matters of course otherwise any btc crash is always the largest. I disagree. Losing a trillion is significant no matter how it's measured. Particularly when losing $1 trillion 4-years ago would have wiped out the entire sector and now it doesn't even lead to a single bankruptcy.
SharperDingaan Posted February 28 Posted February 28 (edited) 22 hours ago, wachtwoord said: You mean smaller drop? 69 to 20 is a bigger drop than 125 to 60. Think in terms of apples-to-apples .... 3.45:1 (69/20) vs 2.08:1 (125/60). The ratio being the 'weight' of the drop on a HODLer still there at the bottom of the drop . As BTC becomes progressively more 'main-stream', the lower value rises as the supporting BTC eco-structure (ETF's, L2 solutions, stablecoin, etc) becomes larger and more robust. BTC crashes, and the individual HODLer now feels less of the 'weight' as 1) there are now more HODLers than there were before, and 2) experienced BTC speculators are now also intentionally buying the dip. i.e: Resilience. We would classify as one of those experienced BTC speculators .... intentionally buying the dip (as the Iran war develops); whereas even as little as one year ago ... we wouldn't have been there. Improving resilience. Different PoV. SD Edited February 28 by SharperDingaan
Milu Posted March 4 Posted March 4 Some interesting recent strength in Bitcoin the past few days as this Iran crisis puts the fear in the market. Perhaps the current winter is ending?
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 4 Posted March 4 (edited) While at a premium to its NAV, it's still at a discount to its BTC per share. The BTC/share is what is going to matter for equity returns and the debt is responsible for adding leverage to that. It's still at a discount to its BTC per share and I expect that BTCs future performance will be enough that the debt doesn't get repaid, but converts to equity at higher prices, gets refinanced, or gets replaced by preferred pending market conditions. But I don't expect it gets "repaid". Edited March 4 by TwoCitiesCapital
UK Posted March 4 Posted March 4 11 hours ago, Milu said: Perhaps the current winter is ending? I have no idea, but am ready
UK Posted March 5 Posted March 5 I thought this might be interesting, so I asked Gemini, but it seems impact is very limited: In Iran and surrounding regions, demand for BTC and USDT has spiked as a direct response to the conflict's impact on local infrastructure: Currency Protection: As the Iranian Toman devalues due to war uncertainty, locals are trading fiat for BTC to preserve purchasing power. Sanction Hedging: With threats to the Iranian banking system and the potential for increased global sanctions, Bitcoin is being used as a non-confiscable "exit ramp" for capital. Operational Resilience: Despite an 80% drop in network activity during peak internet blackouts (Feb 28 – March 1), on-chain data shows that as soon as connectivity returns, volume surges as users rush to move assets out of centralized regional exchanges. Local Capital Flight (Estimated: $15M – $40M+) In the immediate aftermath of the February 28 strikes, demand in Iran spiked as citizens sought to protect their wealth. On-Chain Outflows: Data from firms like Chainalysis and TRM Labs showed that hourly outflows from Iranian exchanges (like Nobitex) surged by 873% above the 2026 average. The Volume: In the first 72 hours of the conflict, approximately $10.3 million in "excess" outflows was recorded. While some of this is internal exchange management, a significant portion represents retail users moving BTC to self-custody or global platforms. Infrastructure Bottleneck: This number would likely be higher, but a 99% drop in internet connectivity in Iran during the peak of the strikes physically limited the amount of demand that could be executed.
Paarslaars Posted March 5 Posted March 5 Who knows what is happening, Iranians buying, Koreans rotating from KOSPI, people getting bullish because Trump is going against the banks in the Clarity act,... or everyone getting more optimistic with spring coming.
Dave86ch Posted March 5 Posted March 5 57 minutes ago, Paarslaars said: Who knows what is happening, Iranians buying, Koreans rotating from KOSPI, people getting bullish because Trump is going against the banks in the Clarity act,... or everyone getting more optimistic with spring coming. Or whoever has liquidity is just propping up the inhelastic Bitcoin market, and everything else is narrative. Mr. 100’s BTC holdings are near an all-time high, and we still don’t know who he is.
Milu Posted March 5 Posted March 5 12 hours ago, UK said: I have no idea, but am ready Welcome to the club. You now need to brush up on your lingo. Please ensure the pepper any future conversations in this thread (or others) with the old reliables "Fix the money, fix the world" "Bitcoin is signal, everything else is noise" "Few understand" "Not your keys, not your coin" And I assume you have already picked out what colour Lambo you are going to buy when this thing takes off?
UK Posted March 5 Posted March 5 1 hour ago, Milu said: Welcome to the club. You now need to brush up on your lingo. Please ensure the pepper any future conversations in this thread (or others) with the old reliables "Fix the money, fix the world" "Bitcoin is signal, everything else is noise" "Few understand" "Not your keys, not your coin" And I assume you have already picked out what colour Lambo you are going to buy when this thing takes off? LOL. No problem with colour selection though, I always go with black or dark grey:)))
Milu Posted March 5 Posted March 5 17 minutes ago, UK said: LOL. No problem with colour selection though, I always go with black or dark grey:))) Hmm that’s a bit too conservative for our liking, needs to be bright orange with a license plate saying ‘HODL’. Not sure you are going to cut it unfortunately.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 5 Posted March 5 5 hours ago, Milu said: Welcome to the club. You now need to brush up on your lingo. Please ensure the pepper any future conversations in this thread (or others) with the old reliables "Fix the money, fix the world" "Bitcoin is signal, everything else is noise" "Few understand" "Not your keys, not your coin" And I assume you have already picked out what colour Lambo you are going to buy when this thing takes off? Don't forget "have fun staying poor" And the license plate for my Red Cayman GTS is 21M MAX
Fly Posted March 5 Posted March 5 (edited) 8 hours ago, Dave86ch said: Or whoever has liquidity is just propping up the inhelastic Bitcoin market, and everything else is narrative. Mr. 100’s BTC holdings are near an all-time high, and we still don’t know who he is. Isn't it an Upbit cold storage wallet? https://bitbo.io/news/btc-whale-doxxed/ Edited March 5 by Fly
Milu Posted March 5 Posted March 5 59 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: Don't forget "have fun staying poor" And the license plate for my Red Cayman GTS is 21M MAX The bitcoin community really don't do themselves many favours a lot of the time
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 6 Posted March 6 2 hours ago, Haryana said: No idea if this article is correct https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/the-secret-bitcoin-loophole-helping-iran-fire-missiles-at-israel-and-us-without-going-broke-11175328 "Iran can mine a single Bitcoin for roughly $1,300," says Jake Percy, a U.S.-based bitcoin strategist. With Bitcoin trading near $73,000, that creates a $71,700 margin per coin. That value can be deployed outside the global banking system. I'd have a hard time imagining how - but maybe? What's crazier is that they're selling the hardest asset on earth for disposable assets in bombs. Would have been better if simply reinvest it into their own economy.
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