Cryptocurrencies

[gfp]

On 3/10/2025 at 12:09 PM, gfp said:

I'm a wild man - I bought some bitcoin at $78,357.73

 

I'm gonna be riiiiccchhh!

 

 

I did it again!  I got some more of those Bitcoins you guys are always talking about!  

[TwoCitiesCapital]

 

Most disappointing bull market, but still within the established 2-year trend. 

 

Hard to know if this 'Uptober' disappointment along many subscribers to the 4-year cycle throwing in the towel now that we're  at the end of ~4 years will lead to the next bear market without a blow-off top or if that capitulation is what is setting up the blow-off top. 

 

I guess nothing to do but wait and see...

 

[gfp]

My sense is that the Bitcoin market finally got big and liquid enough with all this newer institutional capital for some huge early investors who made billions of dollars to cash out, much like an IPO provides liquidity to the exiting early investors.  I heard you can still make some money buying IPOs but it takes some time to absorb the supply from the expiring lock-ups sometimes...  

[Fly]

4 hours ago, gfp said:

My sense is that the Bitcoin market finally got big and liquid enough with all this newer institutional capital for some huge early investors who made billions of dollars to cash out, much like an IPO provides liquidity to the exiting early investors.  I heard you can still make some money buying IPOs but it takes some time to absorb the supply from the expiring lock-ups sometimes...  

 

Jordi Visser had a piece saying exactly that:

 

https://visserlabs.substack.com/p/bitcoins-silent-ipo-why-this-consolidation

 

My concern is that we have seen BTC OGs who held from essentially $0 to $100k+ with incredible conviction based on a narrative of freedom, privacy, decentralization, P2P, etc. Those are now fantasies that don't mesh with the new narrative of ETFs, BTC treasury companies, and the general TradFi financialization of Bitcoin. What will these new holders do if tested with a real bear market drawdown? The narratives now circle around "Number Go Up" and if the number goes down I bet they sell and walk away. 

 

Edited November 13, 2025 by Fly

[gfp]

5 minutes ago, Fly said:

 

Jordi Visser had a piece saying exactly that:

 

https://visserlabs.substack.com/p/bitcoins-silent-ipo-why-this-consolidation

 

My concern is that we have seen BTC OGs who held from essentially $0 to $100k+ with incredible conviction based on a narrative of freedom, privacy, decentralization, P2P, etc. Those are now fantasies that don't mesh with the new narrative of ETFs, BTC treasury companies, and the general TradFi financialization of Bitcoin. What will these new holders do if tested with a real bear market drawdown? The narratives now circle around "Number Go Up" and if the number goes down I bet they sell and walk away. 

 

 

Yeah I get a lot of my AI and Bitcoin thoughts from listening to Jordi every week.  He keeps me from getting too bearish, which is my default state of mind apparently

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 hours ago, Fly said:

 

Jordi Visser had a piece saying exactly that:

 

https://visserlabs.substack.com/p/bitcoins-silent-ipo-why-this-consolidation

 

My concern is that we have seen BTC OGs who held from essentially $0 to $100k+ with incredible conviction based on a narrative of freedom, privacy, decentralization, P2P, etc. Those are now fantasies that don't mesh with the new narrative of ETFs, BTC treasury companies, and the general TradFi financialization of Bitcoin.

 

I disagree. I think it was clear to most who expected a mass adoption that these were natural developments. 

 

There's also quite a bit of analysis out there re: on chain movement of old coins and it's not a ton and doesn't seem to explain the general sentiment and bucking of the seasonal/post-halving trend. I don't have the ability to review/parse the data myself, so hard to say which is true. But Willy Woo has commentary on this saying much of the old coin movement has been wallet to wallet (possible  house-keeping, i.e. moving to more secure wallets less susceptible to quantum hacking) and not to exchanges where volumes of BTC inventory are still falling. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Fly said:

What will these new holders do if tested with a real bear market drawdown? The narratives now circle around "Number Go Up" and if the number goes down I bet they sell and walk away. 

 

Probably the same thing as holders who bought in 2016. And 2019. And 2021. And etc. The reason it has gone from 0 to $100k is because over time more and more people have found conviction in it and ridden out the bear markets. I'm class of 2019 myself. 

Edited November 14, 2025 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Dave86ch]

At this price I prefer Bitcoin to be broadly distributed as an asset rather than concentrated in a way that forms a new aristocracy where a small group of early holders and their families permanently control most of the monetary system.

 

Revolutions are usually driven by masses of ordinary people, but once power is seized the rebellious ideals fade and what emerges is simply a new ruling order.

 

The irony is that Guy Fawkes, now seen as a symbol of rebellion, was actually acting on behalf of the Catholic Church to restore its influence over England.

[backtothebeach]

I found this podcast very interesting, including their attempts to explain quantum computing. If I understood correctly, the quantum risk will probably be solved, except for the 20-30% of lost and frozen BTC, which would be hacked through quantum computing, since they won't be able to join the new quantum-safe protocol.

 

I'm an amateur here, so someone who knows more about this, how would that be dealt with?

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/btc253-quantum-computing-and-bitcoin-w-charles/id928933489?i=1000736349583

[TwoCitiesCapital]

14 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

I found this podcast very interesting, including their attempts to explain quantum computing. If I understood correctly, the quantum risk will probably be solved, except for the 20-30% of lost and frozen BTC, which would be hacked through quantum computing, since they won't be able to join the new quantum-safe protocol.

 

I'm an amateur here, so someone who knows more about this, how would that be dealt with?

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/btc253-quantum-computing-and-bitcoin-w-charles/id928933489?i=1000736349583

 

 

I'm not sure it would be known - someone will hack the keys to the coins and have the permission to send them like the owner who previously owned the keys and lost them would have. 

 

Or maybe you get white-hat hackers who help people quantumly recover lost coins. 

 

Either way, just assume 21 million outstanding and you have no problems. 

 

[SharperDingaan]

USD 95,059.89 at present, BTC-ETF's experiencing large withdrawals (therefore BTC selling in quantity), and not enough buyers. Have to think that some of the wanna-be MSTR's will have to shed some of their BTC into this, along with the forced retail margin sales, and some of the miner inventory. MSTR is calming nerves for a reason .... promising all is 'safe'.

 

BTC drops enough, there will be an intervention; the mystery is how extensive, and at what price point. Lot of ways it could go, but one has to think that one of the consequences is that it brings implementation of a stable coin digital dollar a lot nearer. Not a bad thing.

 

Anecdotally earlier this year we put on a paired swing trade, selling BTC-ETF cheap to buy Canadian o/g even cheaper. For the longest time it was impossible to unwind at a gain as both legs had risen 45%+ in price. Now, it would seem that if BTC keeps dropping, we'll be unwinding with gains on both legs. We continue to pray ; but this would have been unbelievable, even as short as a month ago.

 

Times are a changing.

 

SD

 

 

 

[Dave86ch]

11 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

USD 95,059.89 at present, BTC-ETF's experiencing large withdrawals (therefore BTC selling in quantity), and not enough buyers. Have to think that some of the wanna-be MSTR's will have to shed some of their BTC into this, along with the forced retail margin sales, and some of the miner inventory. MSTR is calming nerves for a reason .... promising all is 'safe'.

 

BTC drops enough, there will be an intervention; the mystery is how extensive, and at what price point. Lot of ways it could go, but one has to think that one of the consequences is that it brings implementation of a stable coin digital dollar a lot nearer. Not a bad thing.

 

Anecdotally earlier this year we put on a paired swing trade, selling BTC-ETF cheap to buy Canadian o/g even cheaper. For the longest time it was impossible to unwind at a gain as both legs had risen 45%+ in price. Now, it would seem that if BTC keeps dropping, we'll be unwinding with gains on both legs. We continue to pray ; but this would have been unbelievable, even as short as a month ago.

 

Times are a changing.

 

SD

 

 

 

What do you mean by intervention?

[SharperDingaan]

6 hours ago, Dave86ch said:

What do you mean by intervention?

 

Trump and co. Kill the golden goose, and there ain't any money to feed Erics crypto.

 

SD

Edited November 15, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[Paarslaars]

18 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

USD 95,059.89 at present, BTC-ETF's experiencing large withdrawals (therefore BTC selling in quantity), and not enough buyers. Have to think that some of the wanna-be MSTR's will have to shed some of their BTC into this, along with the forced retail margin sales, and some of the miner inventory. MSTR is calming nerves for a reason .... promising all is 'safe'.

 

BTC drops enough, there will be an intervention; the mystery is how extensive, and at what price point. Lot of ways it could go, but one has to think that one of the consequences is that it brings implementation of a stable coin digital dollar a lot nearer. Not a bad thing.

 

Anecdotally earlier this year we put on a paired swing trade, selling BTC-ETF cheap to buy Canadian o/g even cheaper. For the longest time it was impossible to unwind at a gain as both legs had risen 45%+ in price. Now, it would seem that if BTC keeps dropping, we'll be unwinding with gains on both legs. We continue to pray ; but this would have been unbelievable, even as short as a month ago.

 

Times are a changing.

 

SD

 

 

 

The question is: is this a structural shift in demand VS supply or is this simply a short dip due to a lack of liquidity from the shutdown? The latter should be reversing shortly. Additionally when QT stops on the 1st of Dec, potential rate cuts, etc... macro environment should favor BTC.

 

There is a shift going on though, long term holders are selling while institutions are buying, seems like a good step in the adoption curve. 

 

Congratz on the trade though!

[Milu]

All I see is a normal drawdown, quite mild actually so far. We may go down a bit further or we may hit all time high before end of the year. I hope that the nonsense around some predictable 4 year cycle can be put to rest over the next year or so too. I’ll continue to hold as I’ve done for 5.5 years so far, might even buy a little bit of mstr to use as a rough bitcoin proxy in my pension now that the nav premium is gone.

[SharperDingaan]

Inclined to think it's liquidity related, biased downward for another 5% or so, then a managed 'recovery'.

 

Simply because treasurers around the world have just been reminded that BTC ONLY has a positive carry, IF it doesn't have to be sold down to pay bills. When there is a need to draw down under stress - BTC cannot be treated as a T-Bill (with a nominal liquidity discount). To get the funds back .... the BTC (at its now lower price) holding has to be retained, and borrowed against, vs sold. This event cost people credibility, bonus, and was not in the use case sold.

 

Given the experience, most would expect a hold on new BTC purchases (and opportune BTC liquidations), while Investment Policies are reassessed and re-approved; at least 1-4 months. Hopefully, all goes well, and we're back in BTC-ETF again a little before that happens 

 

Good luck to all.

 

SD

Edited November 15, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

The question is: is this a structural shift in demand VS supply or is this simply a short dip due to a lack of liquidity from the shutdown? The latter should be reversing shortly. Additionally when QT stops on the 1st of Dec, potential rate cuts, etc... macro environment should favor BTC.

 

There is a shift going on though, long term holders are selling while institutions are buying, seems like a good step in the adoption curve. 

 

+1 

 

If this is the supposed IPO-like activity for BTC, then you'd think large holders who've been in for decades will reach a price where they are no longer comfortable selling and the supply dries up. 

 

There hasn't been a large rush from retail this cycle and so we shouldn't be seeing large panic exits either. 

 

It's not uncommon to get 50% corrections in the later portion of the BTC cycle. We didn't get an euphoric 100% months though so I don't expect any 50+% corrections - but perhaps ~30%ish is to be expected. Or maybe we get the 50% anyways...

 

3 hours ago, Milu said:

All I see is a normal drawdown, quite mild actually so far. We may go down a bit further or we may hit all time high before end of the year. I hope that the nonsense around some predictable 4 year cycle can be put to rest over the next year or so too. I’ll continue to hold as I’ve done for 5.5 years so far, might even buy a little bit of mstr to use as a rough bitcoin proxy in my pension now that the nav premium is gone.

 

+1 

 

The primary part that is "abnormal" is that it is occurring during a period where BTC is typically seasonally strong and at the end of the post-halving year which has historically been where the bulk of returns have been made....and we're negative YTD. 

 

I always knew the 4-year cycle narrative wouldn't hold, but there is statistically significant data for October and Q4 specifically that makes it strange to be occurring now - especially when it was preceded by a euphoric rally. 

Edited November 15, 2025 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Dave86ch]

[wachtwoord]

On 11/14/2025 at 9:24 AM, backtothebeach said:

I found this podcast very interesting, including their attempts to explain quantum computing. If I understood correctly, the quantum risk will probably be solved, except for the 20-30% of lost and frozen BTC, which would be hacked through quantum computing, since they won't be able to join the new quantum-safe protocol.

 

I'm an amateur here, so someone who knows more about this, how would that be dealt with?

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/btc253-quantum-computing-and-bitcoin-w-charles/id928933489?i=1000736349583

 

Without any quantum safe protocol the current situation is as follows:

 

Addresses are only vulnerable to Shor's algorithm if the public key is known. So this only concerns the extremely old P2PK addresses and addresses that have been spent from (that's why you should never reuse addresses).

 

Grover's algorithm for hashes only gives a theoretical sqrt(N) speedup which doesn't make an attack on unexposed public key addresses feasible.

 

Of course you do need to expose your public key when you ever spend. So if quantum computers get so fast they can determine the private key to a public key exposed bitcoin address faster than the block interval time you wont be able to spend safely anymore (as an attacker can quickly make a transaction for your coins with a higher fee that the miners will include in the block instead of yours). So by the time quantum computers are able to break ECDSA Bitcoin will immediately migrate to a quantum safe form of encryption to pre-empt that situation from happening (and everyone will have to migrate to new addresses).

Edited November 17, 2025 by wachtwoord

[Paarslaars]

7 hours ago, Dave86ch said:

I believe Saudi Arabia or UA also doubled their BTC exposure in their sovereign wealth fund. The transition from early adaptors to institutions is clearly going on, likely we see slow gradual uptrend for years rather than the typical bull-bear cycles from the past.

[Dave86ch]

@SharperDingaan was right.

[SharperDingaan]

On 11/14/2025 at 6:45 PM, SharperDingaan said:

Anecdotally earlier this year we put on a paired swing trade, selling BTC-ETF cheap to buy Canadian o/g even cheaper. For the longest time it was impossible to unwind at a gain as both legs had risen 45%+ in price. Now, it would seem that if BTC keeps dropping, we'll be unwinding with gains on both legs. We continue to pray ; but this would have been unbelievable, even as short as a month ago.

 

Finally unwound this pair trade at around USD 92K; leaving our gain in CJ, at an annual dividend yield of 12%. Materially improved our diversification, but we probably left money on the table; c'est la vie.

 

While BTC-ETF may still dip a bit, the worst is probably over. It just wasn't worth the risk to delaying, as should BTC simply mean revert and close the year at USD 100K; we would be up another 8%. Quite possibly a lot more, if Trump shows up.

 

Good luck!

 

SD   

Edited November 19, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[UNF2007]

Curious what people think about degradation of the BTC network as the price falls? Is there a critical mass point at which it becomes uneconomic to continue to run the mining operations? If so how will this impact the speed of transactions if at all. Would people notice if the time to complete a transaction doubled , what about 10x? If there is selling pressure with increasing lag with transactions could this result in misquoting of the price on the exchanges? How about security of the network, if more people were to drop out due to poor reimbursement for the capital cost to mine a BTC? 

[Paarslaars]

It has happened frequently that the mining cost was higher than the BTC price, didn't seem to have that much of an impact.

That said, I'm not sure that far off in the future BTC will be used for daily transactions. It might be a bit slow for that... more likely tokens are used backed by BTC and banks will transaction between themselves in BTC.

[SharperDingaan]

There is no change in transaction time; the less CPU power on line, the easier the hash is made so that it will still take the 10 minutes to do.

 

SD

[jfan]

 

The difficulty adjustment occurs every 2 weeks, so that if the mining rigs are guess the hash to quickly, the network makes its more challenging, and vice versa. The programming has worked remarkably well.

 

Bitcoin Block Time Chart

This link has a bunch of charts that you might find useful. @UNF2007